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cloudrunner69 t1_itozha6 wrote

Reply to comment by TheHamsterSandwich in How should an individual best prepare for the next five - ten years? by BinyaminDelta

You could be right but then exponential growth is a sly beast. Look at le rapidness in tech development within le last 10 years and then wonder how much faster that will go when AGI is thrown into le mix.

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ChoosenUserName4 t1_itp4fir wrote

The amount of wishful thinking on this sub borders on that of religion. Everyone wants something from the singularity, whether it's immortality, not having to work, or escape existential dread by living in a VR.

While I have no doubt the singularity will come at some point, I don't think it will happen in the next 5 to 10 years.

Complexity in AI is hugely underestimated (by many, many exponential steps), and all reasons as to why some fields like biology will not grow exponentially, even with a fully functioning AI in place, (financial blocks, time for technology to be adapted, slow experimental verification of predictions, ...) are conveniently skipped over.

The way to prepare is to live your life as if it it's not going to happen, because that is what it's going to feel like for the next 10 years at least.

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fuckdonaldtrump7 t1_itp3a0n wrote

Yeah but Moores law is not holding up. Unless we have breakthroughs in quantum computers or some new processing power, the exponential growth is not true.

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koelti t1_itp67qz wrote

depends. This is just my own theory without real sources, so take it just as that, but when we talk about Moore's law we only look at hardware advancements...obviously. But what about the software side? We see rapid improvements in AI and software optimization today, take DLSS for example. Without any noticeable loss to quality, DLSS is able to up FPS count by 40-50%. What if we apply this to tech in general. Moore's law might not be able to hold up in the hardware sense, but maybe we are able to achieve way more with less in the future.

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fuckdonaldtrump7 t1_itp6diw wrote

Yeah possibly it's just all speculation. I need more evidence before I can be convinced. The software will always be limited by processing power from my fairly narrow bs in cs. Never really got into the super advanced classes that got into that side.

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koelti t1_itp77hs wrote

Yeah, definitely :). As I said, it's just an thought experiment, I'm not arguing this is actually gonna happen. I couldn't know.

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