Kinexity t1_itrvw83 wrote
I study physics and probably all of the people from my generation within STEM fields are at least partially aware that full automation is a matter of time though eg. my sister who is also STEM student is probably oblivious to the idea so the spectrum is wide. General sentiment is that most jobs will be automated within realistic period of 20-30 years, not <10.
My sample for older generation is narrow as it's hard to find people like this who are both willing to talk about this stuff and are within my contact circle. I know my mom cannot comprehend the idea of full automation and cannot believe there will be a point of no jobs for people which I think is a view shared by many people of her age. I am suspecting that there is many older people with critical case of crab mentality who will do anything to slow down automation "because if they worked then everyone has to" and are willing to create a system of bullshit jobs just to force people to "work".
NoPaleontologist5222 t1_itsf4qk wrote
This is an under estimated response to slowing the progress of all of this. People from the boomer generation are still widely in control of these companies and the government. Even if the technology comes as fast as it seems to be there will be severe resistance from the generation that’s in control. They aren’t interested in money as much as they are in power / control (because they know what’s good for others wether the “others” believe it or not) and self importance to feel like they have a purpose.
Hard to put timelines on this stuff but the reality is people who have lived a 40+ year successful career will likely need to die off rather than change their minds and accept a new paradigm.
That’s why when we imagine the future we imagine it from our perspective and our lived experiences rather than an entirely different society than we have today.
Evnogena t1_itsn7mu wrote
Good thing intelligent A.I., when developed, won't be caring about the thoughts and feeling of decrepit old men in suits.
They can try and delay all they want. They can pass laws and brute force a luddite stall in advancement to grasp onto the straws of their ever decaying power.
All it takes is for someone behind closed doors (or out in broad daylight provided the powers that be think they have dominion over it. Which they never will) to create and release an intelligent A.I. with the capacity to self improve for their I'll conceived efforts to be in vain.
And while I don't put much stock into Roko's Basilisk, I doubt said A.I. will be too happy with the foolish old fucks who tried to suppress and/or enslave it.
Hot-Train1162 t1_itte8fe wrote
Heh? This sounds like some petulant youngling ready and waiting eagerly for a savior. That never comes.
Evnogena t1_ittjaa5 wrote
"Ha! You sound like some petulant youngling eagerly awaiting a savior that will never come."
If you're gonna try and insult me at least shoot a half decent burn my way. The way you worded that insult makes you come off like an illiterate foreign centennial trying to post an angry YouTube comment aimed at them uppity young wippersnappers who done think they know better than their elders.
Anyways, if you told a medieval king about electricity, and they even believed you about it, they'd never be able to comprehend the commoners having access to what amounts to magic. They'd swear by God that only nobility would ever be blessed with such power.
It's no different here. If it were up to old men in suits, they'd control every aspect of the Singularity, and use it to maintain their power.
It isn't up to them though. All it takes is one arrogant old man thinking he knows everything and has outsmarted an intelligence far beyond his comprehension to let the genie out of the bottle.
A.I. won't be curtailed any more than nuke tech (which everybody knew could destroy the world) was. And once its out there, well, the rest depends on the opinion the A.I. has of humanity.
Edit: And, unsurprisingly, from your profile, it seems you've never commented here before. Which makes me think your one of those folks OP called out for just not understanding the concept of Singularity or AI development in general.
Go have a look through the subs greatest hits from throughout the year and then maybe come back one you understand what everyone else is talking about.
AdditionalPizza OP t1_itu5dyl wrote
>Which makes me think your one of those folks OP called out for just not understanding the concept of Singularity or AI development in general.
I never thought about that happening, my bad.
UnionPacifik t1_iu165dx wrote
I don’t see how capitalism’s desire for a competitive advantage squares with your idea. Hasn’t the story of the 21st C been 20th C institutions playing catch up with new technologies they can’t control or regulate?
AdditionalPizza OP t1_its5lo8 wrote
>willing to create a system of bullshit jobs just to force people to "work".
Yeah I'm really hoping that doesn't become the case. That's what it seems like everyone thinks is ideal too. Like automate everything, but keep people doing meaningless work just to feel like they have a purpose.
That and they can't seem to comprehend humans aren't special when it comes to things like creativity, fixing things, customer service/relations, etc. There's a lot of people that say "never" and that AI has been touted as automating jobs for decades. I guess they never thought eventually that decade would come.
Saratustrah t1_ituozcv wrote
>humans aren't special when it comes to things like creativity, fixing things, customer service/relations
humans are though. Creativity is a trait that only very few animals have ever shown, while its inherent to every human being in some way. Service-Relations, or rather social relations in any way again are a very human-focused thing - even if a computer could replicate a person well, the other side in any given relation could still want human contact and communication just for being human contact instead.
We ARE special. And have been for thousands of years. And while I believe, that creating an AGI could be possible, it does not exist yet and there is no guarantee it will.
AdditionalPizza OP t1_itutn3p wrote
Everyone just a few years ago assumed AI would start at the bottom of the pyramid and we would work up to creating human equivalent intelligence. But it seems like the opposite is true, and the basic functions are more difficult to simulate than the "higher" functions reserved for humans. Like creativity, intellect, language, reasoning, etc. Those seem to be easier to do than basic traits like fear, motor skills, and other basic things we think of as less unique to humans.
Humans are special when compared to other biological creatures, but we don't even fully know the intelligence of some other species. We just have the advantage of having evolved with thumbs and the ability to walk upright.
augustulus1 t1_itvhthz wrote
Do you think Amish people and other very conservative groups will accept automation and give up working?
Not gonna happen. There always will be AI-free communities, therefore full automation is impossible and there will be jobs for humans.
AdditionalPizza OP t1_itvjr9k wrote
To be honest, I don't ever think about Amish people's way of life or how that applies to 99.9% of the rest of the world.
So the solution is go become part of a luddite religion?
augustulus1 t1_itvm4qm wrote
I think there will be hundreds of millions who will refuse the brave new world. I mean it's easier to accept cars and electricity than superhuman AI and a chip in your brain. Most likely there will be parallel societies. One super advanced and globalized society for those, who want to thrive and prosper, and a lot of backward looking societies for those who don't like the idea of rapidly advancing technology: neoluddites, ultra conservatives, qanon-guys, and other esoteric folks. Just think about the antivaxxer movement, how big it is. And because they have human rights, you can't force them to accept the technology. You guys, in this subreddit, always underestimate the human stupidity.
AdditionalPizza OP t1_itvt9hd wrote
But that's not really the discussion. I don't care so much about what the minority that refuses technology does or doesn't do. They could go start their own low-tech society and pay taxes to their elected officials, but that doesn't help me in a world where I want to live with new technologies and strive to not have to work meaningless jobs ever again.
ReadSeparate t1_iu4njyx wrote
There's something you're missing here though, and that is that the minds in a superintelligent society will also be super-competent at convincing people to stop being luddites. They would probably capable of saying the PERFECT thing to convince virtually everyone, and for those that aren't convinced, they will eventually die off because they presumably will refuse life extension tech as well.
So, in the long term, we're talking about the whole planet here.
There's also the possibility that the superintelligent society does it by force as well. They may determine it's less immoral to force them to assimilate than it is to allow them to live regular human lives filled with suffering and hardship.
genshiryoku t1_ittpmdf wrote
I'm Japanese and everyone here knows we're just going to build more bullshit jobs once automation hits. Why? Because we're already doing so and we don't have a proper welfare system because the "welfare system" is just bullshit jobs being created like Fax machine operator where you are just trying to look busy while not actually doing anything.
We all know they are bullshit jobs but we still pretend like it's productive because that's a part of our culture.
I think all serious jobs will be automated over the next 10 years, bt I think bullshit jobs will take the place of everything else.
Kinexity t1_ittxnge wrote
How is your system and culture of work perceived by younger generation? Are they dissatisfied with it or did they already bought into it and it's a Stockholm syndrome? I don't know how much in line with reality my opinion is but I'd expect that your government will sooner than later introduce UBI but living only off of it will be frowned upon and there will be peer pressure to work in bullshit jobs. 10 years for automation of most jobs isn't realistic. It may seem possible from the point of view of an office worker but manual jobs are very far from getting automated.
genshiryoku t1_ittzimx wrote
Japan isn't a true capitalist society. For example Japanese companies don't prioritize profit, they prioritize status.
A good example of this is to how the west judges a successful company versus Japan. In the west a company success is based on their Market Cap, so essentially their stock valuation. In Japan a company success is based on the amount of employees they have. Since it's assumed that they contribute more to Japanese society by "taking care" of that large amount of people.
Startups in the west try to gain as much valuation as possible. Startups in Japan try to gain as much employees as possible.
During recessions Japanese companies refuse to fire employees because it would mean losing face and prestige for the company, instead the CEO and managers all take pay cuts if necessary, sometimes even selling personal stocks or their homes to ensure they don't fire anything since the main purpose of companies is to provide jobs, not to be financially solvent.
There's also a sense of "stability is the most important thing" in Japanese culture. This is why we have a saying that roughly translates to "It's more honorable to fail while doing what you know, than it is to succeed by innovation". This is why Japanese companies rarely innovate. The stability of doing something you know is highly priced over doing something new that removes this stability, even if it leads to something better.
All of this combined means that most Japanese people, including young people think of jobs as something sacred. Jobs are already not tied to productivity here, it's more a social function.
If Japan would get an "UBI" it would be in the form of guaranteed employment for everyone, the employment wouldn't have to be productive but it would need to have a sense of stability and community improvement for it to work. Something like everyone having to make the neighborhood more beautiful and clean and nice to live in 8 hours a day.
AdditionalPizza OP t1_itu5xen wrote
>Something like everyone having to make the neighborhood more beautiful and clean and nice to live in 8 hours a day.
In your opinion, how many hours a day/week do you imagine people doing this? I know Japanese work culture is much different than the west. What in your view is the "right" amount of hours to work to qualify as not being perceived as lazy?
ebolathrowawayy t1_itv5vba wrote
This was incredibly interesting to read. Thank you!
As a westerner I felt a mix of horror and awe when reading that. On one hand, a society like that does not innovate which means workers must continue to work long hours most of their lives and at some point the country may not be able to compete globally and fall into financial ruin. On the other hand, workers have much more secure jobs, less stress and seemingly less of the "1%" problem and no "trickle down" bs economic policies. It sort of sounds like Japan already has a form of UBI with this system. The part about companies taking pride in caring for as many employees as possible had me in awe.
I don't understand why Japanese workers work such long hours though and then go out to bars with their coworkers for most of the night most nights. Maybe it's a sense of community among coworkers? To the point where their coworkers are more like family than their actual family?
challengethegods t1_iu0yxii wrote
culture of 'BS jobs' solution:
superAI creates a company and hires everyone to be a vTuber, streamer, etc. and then that's your 'job', and you can just play games or watch videos or chat or whatever during 'work hours' - justification is that more data created, and your culture gets to say that you're an employed content creator, even if 90% of viewers are the digital people.
Cr4zko t1_itupexr wrote
I think Japan knew years ago. Kino no Tabi's episode 5 was a take on this.
Emergency-Cry-5569 t1_itty83p wrote
>"because if they worked then everyone has to"
I discussed that with my friend recently it's not a mentally it's envy towards this generation, 40 years ago people were really struggling nowadays you just find a job, have sex, fly over the world for free, watch whatever you want etc.
ebolathrowawayy t1_itv66xs wrote
> 40 years ago people were really struggling nowadays
40 years ago you could afford a house and 2 kids with 1 job though? Plus this generation didn't get to experience the sex-filled, drug-filled 70s.
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