Cryptizard t1_its0jh2 wrote on October 25, 2022 at 9:38 PM

Reply to comment by Ortus12 in With all the AI breakthroughs and IT advancements the past year, how do people react these days when you try to discuss the nearing automation and AGI revolution? by AdditionalPizza

It’s not exactly clear what the time frame will be. They might be right. Or not. Nobody really knows at this point.

ihateshadylandlords t1_its36z2 wrote on October 25, 2022 at 9:56 PM

Agreed

AdditionalPizza OP t1_its6g2l wrote on October 25, 2022 at 10:20 PM

I'd argue at least a large portion of people will very likely lose their current jobs to automation. While no, I can't promise that, it's hard to imagine a world where we just stop using language models or advancing them / something even better.

Cryptizard t1_its74gl wrote on October 25, 2022 at 10:25 PM

You underestimate how much people can be stuck in their ways. My grandmother still goes to the bank window to withdraw cash and has never used a computer in her life. There will be businesses that just don’t adopt new technology because they don’t want to and there will still be customers for them.

blueSGL t1_itscy5u wrote on October 25, 2022 at 11:09 PM

it all comes down to the money in the end, if [business] can make more money by using AI it will get used.

Is there going to be enough companies left doing things 'the old way' to keep employment numbers up even though it's less cost effective?

> My grandmother still goes to the bank window to withdraw cash and has never used a computer in her life.

and yet people like her don't provide enough financial incentive to keep branches open.

https://www.bankingdive.com/news/us-banks-close-2927-branches-in-2021-a-38-jump/617594/

visarga t1_ittbiag wrote on October 26, 2022 at 3:43 AM

> Is there going to be enough companies left doing things 'the old way' to keep employment numbers up even though it's less cost effective?

In the medium term there will be new jobs and applications that were impossible before. A company should expand and diversify instead of firing their people, if they care about profits that is. We also have to tackle global warming and other pesky problems on a grand scale. In the long term I think we'll be post scarcity by a combination of automation and smart materials.

Cryptizard t1_itsdh4c wrote on October 25, 2022 at 11:13 PM

That is my entire point. Even if it comes down to money, the majority of small businesses are not buying robots to replace people in the near term. It’s going to be 20 years at least.

blueSGL t1_itsf4uj wrote on October 25, 2022 at 11:25 PM

>the majority of small businesses are not buying robots to replace people in the near term.

What about small businesses that can do the work remotely? the percentage of the entire workforce who don't need to physically be present in a specific location to carry out their jobs (quick google, ranges from 1/4 to 4/10 )

and large business is already looking at automation. With control models like this six axis arm making it simple to program and to reprogram for a different task, it only needs to be slightly better than human on a cost/benefit analysis to make it worth while. (was the cost in these things to begin with the hardware or the software, I've never looked into it)

overlordpotatoe t1_itsl2w4 wrote on October 26, 2022 at 12:10 AM

Honestly, I think this will be something that slows things down substantially. Think of how slow some businesses have been to digitalise and automate their systems in ways that have been possible for a decade or more for no real reason except that people are resistant to change.