AdditionalPizza OP t1_itvwfwd wrote on October 26, 2022 at 6:15 PM

Reply to comment by Thelmara in With all the AI breakthroughs and IT advancements the past year, how do people react these days when you try to discuss the nearing automation and AGI revolution? by AdditionalPizza

I'm not so sure engineers and CEO's have been this optimistic about AI before, but they have for sure about other things. I could be wrong though.

What they're saying should, theoretically, get people looking into it themselves and reading the research, and seeing that they're onto something this time. Though I'll admit, presuming anyone would ever do that would be foolish on my part.

I'm just wondering how in-your-face this stuff has to be before people open their eyes, but I think I've came to the conclusion most people won't open their eyes until it hits them in the face.

Thelmara t1_itvytzq wrote on October 26, 2022 at 6:30 PM

> I'm not so sure engineers and CEO's have been this optimistic about AI before

Marvin Minsky claimed we'd have a human-equivalent AI in "three to eight years". In 1968.

Here's a 2014 paper about AI predictions, and how bad experts are at making them.

The errors, insights and lessons of famous AI predictions – and what they mean for the future[PDF]