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imlaggingsobad t1_itthdix wrote

wouldn't be surprised if it dropped to 2025-2026 by the end of next year

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Apollo24_ t1_ittohz0 wrote

wouldn't be surprised if it happens by the end of next year

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DungeonsAndDradis t1_ituylf6 wrote

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/date-weakly-general-ai-is-publicly-known/

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_SputnicK_ t1_itwm8qn wrote

I think AGI will arrive in the wake of rumors and speculation. For months, people will talk about how X company (e.g., Google, OpenAI, Meta) has "solved intelligence" but nothing will be confirmed for an exceptionally long time. Internally, there will be pandemonium about the ramifications of releasing the model to the public. Inevitably, the model will be leaked, and imitation models will follow.

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