Apollo24_ t1_ittohz0 wrote on October 26, 2022 at 6:04 AM

Reply to comment by imlaggingsobad in "AI Wins IMO Gold Medal" Metaculus prediction just fell to March 30, 2028 by maxtility

wouldn't be surprised if it happens by the end of next year

DungeonsAndDradis t1_ituylf6 wrote on October 26, 2022 at 2:34 PM

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/date-weakly-general-ai-is-publicly-known/

_SputnicK_ t1_itwm8qn wrote on October 26, 2022 at 8:57 PM

I think AGI will arrive in the wake of rumors and speculation. For months, people will talk about how X company (e.g., Google, OpenAI, Meta) has "solved intelligence" but nothing will be confirmed for an exceptionally long time. Internally, there will be pandemonium about the ramifications of releasing the model to the public. Inevitably, the model will be leaked, and imitation models will follow.