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robdogcronin t1_ittalk6 wrote

I am reflecting on the awesome Connor Leahy's pro gamer move: "if the prediction only ever updates in one way, just update all the way bro"


imlaggingsobad t1_itthdix wrote

wouldn't be surprised if it dropped to 2025-2026 by the end of next year


red75prime t1_ittt4x3 wrote

Yep, I feel that my 50% AGI probability by 2033 prediction slides down. Nevertheless, I will not update it to less than a year until I see 99% precision on logical/common-sense tasks and working, episodic and procedural memory implementation in AI.


overlordpotatoe t1_itu0o8n wrote

I like this one.

>When will a computer program be credited as an artist of at least ten pages of content in Weekly Shonen Jump?

A year ago, predictions were that it would take another 15 years or so. Current predictions are May, 2026, and only dropping.


HumanSeeing t1_itupd8a wrote

Yea, that was a pretty brilliant and insightful thought. If you keep updating and only updating in one direction.. yea, just update all the way bro. Eventho it is not totally clear what all the way means exactly. But.. sooner than we think.


_SputnicK_ t1_itwm8qn wrote

I think AGI will arrive in the wake of rumors and speculation. For months, people will talk about how X company (e.g., Google, OpenAI, Meta) has "solved intelligence" but nothing will be confirmed for an exceptionally long time. Internally, there will be pandemonium about the ramifications of releasing the model to the public. Inevitably, the model will be leaked, and imitation models will follow.


husk_12_T t1_iu8nljh wrote

Why did I read it like 'in my opinion'?