Yes, but the reasoning for the fact that new discoveries will happen in an every increasing lower time span, is described by the Countdown to the Singularity. That is how you get the date 2045. It is not a guess. It is a calculation.

It might be a flawed calculation, for sure. But it is not something that was just guessed out of thin air.

That is why current events usually only distract people from the actual prediction. Because focusing on the small current advances make people lose track of the accuracy of the prediction that was made decades ago.