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AI_Enjoyer87 t1_ivw3xtg wrote

Transformative AI (proto AGI) in the next year. AGI probably by 2025. I think AGI will be a black swan event. Hopefully within a few years we have competent BCIs and FDVR. Obviously a bullish timeline but I think people can't fully appreciate exponentials.


imlaggingsobad t1_ivxhm8c wrote

I agree with you that AGI will be a black swan event. Everyone in the tech world (people who understand the implications) are going to light up with excitement, because know they'll have a tool that solves basically any theoretical problem. Academia and research will boom. MIT/Stanford will be making breakthroughs every day in every academic discipline. Google will solve all of biology in like a few months. Wouldn't be surprised if like 80% of current businesses get disrupted by an AGI version.


red75prime t1_ivxp7tq wrote

Computational power of all USA researchers' brains is in the range of around 0.1-200 zettaFLOPS. So it may be a sudden jump in scientific research (as you say) or exponential ramp-up with not so fast lead-in, when AIs (and, initially, humans) bring available processing power and AI's efficiency up to the super-humanity level.


HeinrichTheWolf_17 t1_iw18fhi wrote

I think the real question is how long we can put the discoveries into practice. We’re going to have a bunch of tech but the real problem is getting the medical institutions to adopt them for mass distribution.

Of course, once we have Hardnano that will be a non-factor but we’ll still need to build the infrastructure for AGI’s inventions.


mootcat t1_iwg3sk5 wrote

What do those acronyms stand for?

Edit: Nevermind, answered below.


squareOfTwo t1_ixzvgfq wrote

TAI which is basically ASI will not come next year. Please learn more about AGI to know why.


red75prime t1_ivwukyo wrote

Exponentials? For now, it's AI funding that grows exponentially. And it is bound to hit diminishing returns while majority of AI development is done by humans. I doubt that AIs will significantly contribute to their own development for at least 5 years (it is necessary for intrinsic exponential growth).


TopicRepulsive7936 t1_ivx7qcj wrote

I assume the paychecks of researchers remain more or less static while chip investments grow 3x to 5x a year so the implications are clear.