2023 predictions

Submitted by ryusan8989 t3_yzgwz5 in singularity

I know it’s still too early to see what the predictions for 2023 will be, but does anyone get excited to see everyone else’s input? I’ve known about the idea of the technological singularity since 2014 and have been following it since. It blows my mind that things that I wish came true, are starting to appear (AI, quantum computers, medical science). I hope to one day exist as an uploaded mind experiencing what the universe and the inner verse (my mind and the minds of others) have to offer! By far, I think artificial intelligence has made huge strides within the last few years and I can’t imagine what the next even 4 years has to offer. Hopefully Sam Altman is correct and AGI will appear a lot sooner than people think.

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hducug t1_iwzwy3a wrote

I guess gpt-4 will be the biggest thing in ai next year.

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overlordpotatoe t1_ix1ck77 wrote

When's that due out?

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redpnd t1_ix1cxjj wrote

Q1 2023

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overlordpotatoe t1_ix1dady wrote

Oh, nice! That should set us up great for a year of interesting new things, then.

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CosmicVo t1_ix2poxk wrote

Interesting new dillemmas as to what is real and what’s not in the virtual space. Informationwarfare will accelerate.

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ihopeimnotdoomed t1_ix2zkh7 wrote

Yeah I'm concerned lol. 'Oh wow this youtube video is talking about very very specific things! I guess I should get this hemorrhoid cream after all. This comedian I fell in love with is just a construct and not real'.

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melmoth_to_a_flame t1_ix984pr wrote

Fake news! Election yadda yadda! Ethnicity X wants your fetuses!

We have always been at war with East Anglia.

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PsychsAndKnots t1_ix63axn wrote

You mean Q4 of 2024? With how much it has been delayed, I wouldn't be surprised about it.

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onyxengine t1_ix18ypq wrote

Probably not

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blueSGL t1_ix1jt1d wrote

how many times this year did we see an image gen model released only to be swiftly followed up with a different company showing off theirs?

What makes people think that GPT4 won't be like that and one of the others being better in some aspect or another.

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UniversalMomentum t1_ix26hsu wrote

I just see real AI as not having a ton of uses compared to just simple things like funding new drug and novel material designs using good ol fashion machine learning.

Yeah it's neat you can draw using fake AI/machine learning, but things like that are not as important as cancer vaccines and graphene nano structures, for instance.

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AsuhoChinami t1_ix2s26c wrote

While I agree, I think improved AI will likewise be better at advancing medical tech.

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botfiddler t1_ix4keuj wrote

Image generators aren't that much more human-like than some protein folding simulation AI. They still don't know what any of this in the picture means. Both is important, though. Imagine crushing big corporations oligopoly on content creation. Someone who could make a comic on his own, could make five with his characters, much faster. Or he could at some point make an anime based on his characters.

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AsuhoChinami t1_ix5r14w wrote

I think AI has to have some kind of understanding in order to perform so well. AI in the past performed poorly because it obviously had poor understanding. I think "AI has no understanding" is kind of an unfalsifiable argument - it's kind of suspect that something which has no form of understanding whatsoever could produce such accurate and well-formed results, but it's also something that's impossible to argue for or against.

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botfiddler t1_ix6fi2m wrote

Yeah, well, I'd say it understands how the words in the prompt relate to certain image elements and how those relate to each other. Nothing outside, to physics, human meaning of such pictures, ...

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blueSGL t1_ix4n90v wrote

I see image generation as an easy 'foot in the door', something that can be played with locally that will get people into the space that was never interested in any sort of AI/ML before. That's the true boon of this sort of tech going out there it will be helping with other advancements just not directly.

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overlordpotatoe t1_ix1pgto wrote

I guess we can't account of things other people are working on behind the scenes. GPT4 should be pretty big, but of course there's no guarantee another company hasn't been quietly working on something even better.

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SupportstheOP t1_ix30gcg wrote

I'm wondering if that played into GPT-4s development. There's immense competition to be cutting edge and first in the AI race, and releasing an AI system that is behind its predecessors is basically not releasing an AI at all. It's possible they delayed releasing it so they can make sure GPT-4 can go toe-to-toe with any would-be competitors.

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overlordpotatoe t1_ix34y9o wrote

It's definitely become a fast paced, competitive space. Nobody can afford to stagnate.

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KidKilobyte t1_ix66ts8 wrote

Likely Meta thought they had a "good enough" ai to have first mover advantage with Galactica, but had to withdraw it after only 3 days due to poor reception. I doubt this will happen to GPT-4. It will be interesting to see how quickly others can catch up. I suspect Google/Alphabet has stuff even more powerful than GPT-4, but are not releasing it yet due to alignment issues or public reaction to jobs going away.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/yytfpr/meta_has_withdrawn_its_galactica_ai_only_3_days/

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vernes1978 t1_ix1b7lc wrote

elaborate

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PolarsGaming t1_ix1c85e wrote

Nice pfp

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vernes1978 t1_ix1j3n5 wrote

what does pfp mean?

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PolarsGaming t1_ix2557j wrote

Profile picture

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vernes1978 t1_ix393tu wrote

I only now realize you are talking about the background banner the new reddit interface provides.
It's the diffusion MRI data showing the general direction of neuron's axom.

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sheerun t1_ix3736s wrote

I cheer for Open Source Bloom 2.0 model, not proprietary software

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Altruistic_Rate6053 t1_ix342rz wrote

Nah I don’t think it will be better I think it will be similar performance with a lot less computation

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AGI_69 t1_ix01ka7 wrote

I think, we are going to see big improvements in text-to-video, text-to-3D-models. I know, there are some papers on it, but not much we can use right now.

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overlordpotatoe t1_ix0r41f wrote

By the end of 2023, AI art generators will have hands figured out.

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vernes1978 t1_ix1bcen wrote

There's nothing wrong with their fifififingrefringresesrsfiggers.

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TheHamsterSandwich t1_ix17gzr wrote

I bet my left nut that AI generated hands will be perfected by no later than the first half of 2025.

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TemetN t1_ix0dajz wrote

  1. Progress on generative audio/video to a similar point to last summer was at in generative images.
  2. Gato 2 (or whatever they call the scaled Gato they're working on) drops, confirms scale is all we need.
  3. Breakthroughs in data (one or more of synthetic, access to more through opening up video content, transfer learning, etc).
  4. Model size begins to grow significantly again.
  5. Further expansion (as in new cities) for robotaxies, I'd particularly watch Waymo.
  6. Rapid increase in competition in cultured meat.
  7. Further integration of generative models into other products.
  8. Something comes out of the investment into public R&D in ML.

There's honestly a lot of other stuff on my bingo card too that I'm less certain of (and to be fair, this stuff is mostly just 'things I think are substantially more likely than not'). But past this I'll also be watching for things like repeatable ignition, early immunotherapy results, a humanoid robotics jump, a quantum tolerant scalability breakthrough in quantum computing, etc.

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michael_mullet t1_ix0nvq2 wrote

>Gato 2 (or whatever they call the scaled Gato they're working on) drops, confirms scale is all we need.

If scale is all we need, AGI by end of 2023.

It may not be released publicly but will become apparent to those in the industry and copied where possible.

I am not convinced that scale is all we need but would be happy to be wrong.

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TemetN t1_ix0okxi wrote

I'm (repeatedly) on record as expecting AGI (as in the Metaculus weak operationalization) by 2025. So while I broadly agree with this, I do think it only applies to a relatively specific and closer to the original use of the term, rather than the more volitional use.

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michael_mullet t1_ix18qed wrote

I think I understand you. Likely scale is all that is needed for a non-volitional AGI, and that may be all that is needed for accelerating technological change. Humans can provide the volitional aspect of the system.

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-ZeroRelevance- t1_ix1crev wrote

Do we even want a volitional AGI though? A non-volitional AGI seems like all the benefits with none of the problems. Since the main draw of an AGI is the problem-solving aspects, which you don’t need volition for.

Also, it shouldn’t have any problems pretending to be one if we want it to though, given how current language models already make very convincing chatbots. It’s just that in such a case, we’d ultimately stay in control, since a non-volitional AI would have no actual desires for things like self-preservation

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TemetN t1_ix1fdw6 wrote

This. Plus I think that volition is unlikely to be simply emergent, which means that it's likely to take its own research. And I don't see a lot of call for, or effort at researching in such a direction (Numenta? Mostly Numenta).

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CosmicVo t1_ix2q8f1 wrote

Scale is indeed not all we need. In fact GPT-4 has less parameters than GPT-3. Or the same. Idk. Anyway the focus is shifting toward trainingdata (e.g. learning rate, batch size, sequence length, etc). They’re trying to find optimal models instead of just bigger ones. Hyperparameter tuning is unfeasible for larger models but result in a performance increase equivalent to doubling the number of parameters.

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SoylentRox t1_ix0pvgm wrote

do you have a prediction from last year? Didn't this image generation stuff come out of left field this year?

I am wondering if your predictions are way too conservative.

Those of us who survive next year will find out, but the last year has seemed suspicious to me. Too many advances, they work too well. Not empty promises and hype as usual but stuff that is starting to work.

If the singularity hypothesis is correct this pattern is going to continue - progress on AI itself accelerating as AI is chain reacting with itself. And if correct then progress will accelerate until the end.

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TemetN t1_ix0s6u3 wrote

Kind of and not really? I (along with everyone else) was awaiting DALLE-2, but the explosion did come out of left field. That said, I don't think I had a prediction on that, and my only predictions prior to that were either high level (AGI median 2024) or framed differently (I have a number of predictions on Metaculus from that period for example).

As for whether they're 'too conservative', honestly while it'd be nice, I can't (or at least won't) make predictions without some basis for extrapolation. So things that are out of the blue (such as the aforementioned explosion of image generation models) aren't really likely to show up in that context. I can acknowledge they happen, but they aren't easily modeled generally speaking.

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was_der_Fall_ist t1_ix1ebvz wrote

I agree that the past year has been “suspicious” and suggests that we may see even faster rates of progress in the coming years. If the singularity hypothesis, as you put it, is correct, 2023 should include even more profound advancements than we’ve seen so far. If it doesn’t, then we’ve got something wrong in our thinking.

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SoylentRox t1_ix1f1g2 wrote

Agree mostly. One confounding variable is the coming recession may cut funding. I don't know how much gain we are getting from "singularity feedback". What this is as AGI gets closer, AGI subcomponents become advanced enough to speed up the progress towards AGI itself. As concrete examples, autoML is one and the transformer is another and mass ai accelerator compute boards is a third. Each of those is a component that a true AGI will have a more advanced version inside itself, and each speeds up progress.

The other form of singularity feedback as it becomes increasing obvious the AI is very near in calendar time, more money will be spent on it because of a higher probability of making ROI. You might have heard huggingface, a startup that duplicated openais work with stable diffusion but better, has a paper value of a billion dollars basically overnight.

This is similar to how as humanity got closer to a nuke multiple teams were trying in multiple countries.

Anyways if Singularity gain is say 2x, and funding gets cut to 1/4, then in 2023 we will see half progress.

Just as an example. If the gain is 10x the funding cut will be meaningless.

And obviously gain scales to well technically infinity though since the singularity is a physical process it will not be quite that high as the actual singularity happens, and presumably AGIs advance themselves and technology in lockstep until we hit the laws of physics.

That last phase would I guess be limited by energy input and the speed of computers.

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was_der_Fall_ist t1_ixgc64a wrote

> The other form of singularity feedback [is that] as it becomes increasing obvious the AI is very near in calendar time, more money will be spent on it because of a higher probability of making ROI.

In my thinking, if we are as close to transformative AI as we seem to be from recent trends, the inevitable increase in funding should nullify any effect of an economic recession, so the stagnation of critical research would likely require more catastrophic intervention.

The people in charge of funding AI research (that is, the CEOs and other leadership of all relevant companies) are, almost universally, extremely interested in spending a lot of money on AI research, and they have the funds to do it even in a recession.

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SoylentRox t1_ixgnzr5 wrote

In theory. In practice, Intel held a layoff for their AI accelerator teams. Amazon let go a lot of Amazon Robotics and Alexa workers. Argo AI closed.

While yeah more pure AI plays like Hugging Face raised on a unicorn valuation.

It seems to be mixed outcomes.

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-ZeroRelevance- t1_ix1dcmd wrote

Good predictions, I mostly agree with all of them. Don’t forget about GPT-4 though. GPT-3 is still one of the best LLMs out there, so I imagine GPT-4 is going to outshine all competition by far.

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TemetN t1_ix1f7fl wrote

Still not sure if it'll come out this year - or more precisely I think it's more likely than not to come out this year (if only slightly).

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-ZeroRelevance- t1_ix1fmtb wrote

Fair enough. Considering OpenAI though, there’s a good chance they’ll say “We’re not going to release this to the public right now, for their own safety” and not let anyone use it for a few months anyways.

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Yuli-Ban t1_ix104m9 wrote

Oof, I find it a challenge to come up with things that are realistic without feeling like hype.

Will definitely mull on this for a while, but GPT-4, perfect image generation, and novel video generation are definitely going to be big deals.

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-ZeroRelevance- t1_ix1dphc wrote

It’ll definitely get a lot better, but perfect is a bit of a stretch imo. I personally think the current models are just too small to learn all the finer details needed to survive a closer inspection or follow the prompts perfectly.

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[deleted] t1_ix04li2 wrote

[deleted]

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AsuhoChinami t1_ix1qhcs wrote

Fully self-driving? As in level 5?

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[deleted] t1_ix1sax4 wrote

[deleted]

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Clawz114 t1_ix3oaxg wrote

>It's kind of funny that that Cruise beat Tesla to level 4, and the no one noticed, not even the media, even if it's only limited to specific mapped cities.

It is impressive, but this has its problems. Specifically mapped cities and zones don't scale very well. It's less of a problem for taxis and ride sharing but it isn't going to cut it (yet) for people who want to own a vehicle that can go mostly anywhere.

Also, it may be level 4 in some areas, but in other areas it can't operate at all. The levels don't really take that into account and because they don't, the number alone doesn't tell the full story. You can have a level 5 car today under the condition that it only operates on a specific test track that was designed for this purpose. Does that mean it's a level 5 solution? Probably not.

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r0cket-b0i t1_ix2a1pw wrote

Last point I think is a spot on, basically a productized Cheracter ai or gpt3 that does a very different thing and AI is more of an interface, think of a new gen of a budget, event planner, health or sports apps, email assistant, may be grocery + cooking advice

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futebollounge t1_ix36v1g wrote

Crazy thing is Cruise is going to do all this, and they're not even the leader in the industry. Waymo is a good few years ahead, and they just announced an expanded map in San Francisco and Phoenix, with their next efforts focusing on LA.

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modestLife1 t1_iwzvyyg wrote

agi will be released jan. 1, 2023 much to everyone's surprise.

/thread

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ihateshadylandlords t1_ix0fjye wrote

So I don’t think much will change from 2022 to 2023, but I think a ton will change over the next two decades. I think 2023 will be like 2022 for the average person. We on /r/singularity might see more game changing developments in the lab, but still won’t be available for the average Joe.

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ChromeGhost t1_ix0h6b4 wrote

Oculus Quest 3, Valve’s new headset, PSVR2, and Apple’s headset are likely coming out though

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ihateshadylandlords t1_ix0ikmc wrote

I don’t think those new VR headsets will impact the average person, but that’s just me.

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ChromeGhost t1_ix0qll7 wrote

Fair point. Though Apple will definitely get people talking and bring the idea further to the mainstream

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Quealdlor t1_ix4hwrb wrote

I'm adding some other guaranteed 2023 products: mid-range and low-end RDNA 3 cards, Intel Meteor Lake, AMD V-Cache Zen 4 desktop CPUs, Zen 4 and RDNA 3 laptop, Intel Sapphire Rapids, Intel Ponte Vecchio, AMD Bergamo, Genoa-X and Sienna and Qualcomm Snapdragon AR2 (specially-designed, TSMC's 4nm, new augmented reality glasses SoC). OpenAI's GPT-4 will be out by the end of 2023 for sure as well. Stable Diffusion will get better. The fastest supercomputer won't be Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility's Frontier anymore, but Argonne National Laboratory's Aurora. These things I'm certain of. There are other, which are less certain like Emerald Rapids or PS5 Slim.

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Sea_Path_4152 t1_ix2kydj wrote

I will go on a limb and say that the same type of “explosion” that happened with AI art will happen with AIs doing actual research. We saw the tip of the iceberg with this on protein folding, but I think AI is going to start getting pointed at fundamental physics research (look at what Nim Arkani-Hamed is working on with structures that exist outside of space-time and imagine if an AI could make progress there).

A lot of our big breakthroughs in physics are often found by some human noticing patterns in mathematics that they can extrapolate and apply to other areas. We will very soon be able to ask AIs to just go look for patterns and report back. This is going to push us toward singularity-level advances in ways that most people are not currently expecting

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rixtil41 t1_ix0a4uc wrote

2023

1.No AGI but some more big improvements in AI

  1. 50/50 chance that apples mix reailty headseat will be good enough to replace a smartphone. I'm not an apple fan but if some of the rumours are ture it can. 80 % confident that visuals and sound can. But the battery life will be the make it or beak it moment. If the battery life is good enough than I am confident we will see a quick increase in sales and a lot more people using it. Or companies will soon offer something close or something similar for a cheaper price.

3.No self driving but automated level 4 or robot taxi's will be more common.

  1. No quantum computer that's good enough to replace your average smartphone, laptop ect.
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AsheyDS t1_ix163qc wrote

>4. No quantum computer that's good enough to replace your average smartphone, laptop ect.

Why would that even be a thing? That's not what quantum computers are meant for...

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rixtil41 t1_ix1x96j wrote

Half of the comments I read want a quantum computer to replace there laptops or run games because it can solve problems that would take longer than a traditional computer.

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UniversalMomentum t1_ix26rva wrote

Well.. quantum chips aren't making huge gains to consider game changing yet, but to be fair we don't know what any tech can really do until we've created it and started playing with it.

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Jaydi t1_ix15zv7 wrote

I really REALLY want number 1 to be true. I don't need it to replace a smartphone, but I'm hoping for a true generational leap in visuals from the Apple headset. It excites me.

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UniversalMomentum t1_ix27mmj wrote

I think VR remains a gimmick and people are immersed enough just starting into a computer/TV screen.

A more useful advance would just be better interfaces, the TV/monitor part does pretty good and pocket computers will remain more useful than headset computers because you don't have to wear them on your face to use them.

VR has the problem is making it too hard to share what you're going with a group, so it will continue to have adopting problems. Plus it's competing against cheap 4k screens that do a pretty darn good job already.

Like I'd rather have a three monitor setup where the game can pan across monitors than VR because I can set at a desktop with monitors far more comfortably for far longer than I can wear a display on my face.

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AsuhoChinami t1_ix1qcxm wrote

Level 4 self-driving is pretty damn close to full self-driving. I think the main difference is that in Level 5 you cannot take over, whereas a smart Level 4 gives you the option but you rarely have to utilize it.

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summon18 t1_ix2uimq wrote

No. L4 is geo-fenced L5. That means L5 works everywhere vs L4 limited to a certain area.

Waymo, cruise are L4. No one has achieved L5.

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AsuhoChinami t1_ix2uq6h wrote

Yes, but one important thing is, well, just how big is a "geo-fenced" area? One singular town? Half the country? I have never been able to find information on just how many areas are geo-fenced.

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summon18 t1_ix36m5b wrote

Usually it is part of or an entire city, potentially with some highways.

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AsuhoChinami t1_ix5rizz wrote

I hope this is just for the current, early day robo-taxi tests. If I bought an L4 self-driving car one day and it was only self-driving in one town and was a normal car everywhere else, that would be kind of... completely and totally fucking useless?

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summon18 t1_ix88rxc wrote

Then wait for L5, potentially much much longer

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AsuhoChinami t1_ix8ny9h wrote

lul I know that a consumer self-driving car wouldn't be what I just described, you're shitting me if you say that it would be

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rixtil41 t1_ix3fxl6 wrote

2024

  1. Still no AGI but big improvements again

  2. MIX reailty headsets is seeing a shift over smartphones.

  3. Same prediction but a lot more robot cars or level 4

  4. Same with Quantum computer

2025

  1. Still no AGI but big improvements again but close to AGI

2.MIx reailty headsets are starting to rival smartphones in terms of popularity. A lot more people compared to 2022 are wanting the next or a mix headset instead of a smartphone.

  1. Same as 2024

  2. Same as 2024

2026

  1. AGI for the first time happens.

  2. Smartphones are no longer the number one device for the first time. More people want a mix headset over a smartphone .

  3. 50/50 of self driving level 5

  4. Same no quantum computer replacement

2027

  1. AGI is becoming a service or open source so 50/50

  2. Even as mixed headsets are now going to predictably replace smartphones when it comes to uses, smartphones are not going down without a fight in this transition. The simplicity of a smartphone is what is slowing down the headsets.

  3. Self driving level 5 80% confident

  4. Same as before

2028

  1. If AGI comes true rather it be a service or open source in 2027 than in 2028 I predict it will soon be implemented in other areas in the robotics and all other industries to the point where a replacement to the current economy is taken a lot more seriously.

  2. Companies are announcing or implying that they will soon discontinue there smartphones. Majority of people are now using headsets.

  3. More level 5

  4. Same

2029

  1. New economy is taking place
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TheHamsterSandwich t1_ix0km7j wrote

a post on the longevity reddit that grabs everybody's attention

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EmergentSubject2336 t1_ix0u3we wrote

I'm looking toward action-driven AI with an inner monologue, i.e. the AI gaining the ability to intelligently follow instructions and perform actions in a virtual world or the real world. Like for example Google's new household robots they are currently R&D'ing on. This builds on top the already available language models like GPT-3.

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Danger-Dom t1_ix13zt5 wrote

AI companionship - I think this will grow at a surprising rate once we can talk to them like it's facetime.

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savagefishstick t1_ix0mzqw wrote

I feel this will be the year a lot of great individual achievements like ai image generators and ai language models will be combined into something significantly greater than the sum of their parts. Something like, you can create a movie or even video game just by writing and describing what you'd like to see.

I also think AI will give us 2 or 3 medical breakthroughs such as, curing cancer or delaying the aging process, or some large steps towards these goals. Advancements in machine learning have just given way for liquid neural networking algorithms so AI can learn and therefor perform significantly enhanced rates.

This will also be the year full self driving cars become a reality (not necessarily in mass production yet) and more and more factories will have competent working robots replacing more manual labor. We will continue to see more and more white collar jobs going the way of AI such as tech programmers DBAs and engineers.

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UniversalMomentum t1_ix266pl wrote

AI is cool, but robotics actually does a lot more. Humans are fairly smart and imaginative, so AI isn't that great compared to machine learning.

We need things that assemble puzzles for us more than we need AI than can do basic human thought... because we already have more than enough humans to do that, it's the huge variable problems where humans have to coordinate thought together that we see the biggest benefit from machine learning/AI.

2023.. for a most impactful advance? Probably medicine and materials sciences.

One of the fields most sped up recently by machine learning is drug candidates and new molecule candidate in general because machine learning as been very VERY effective in modeling new drug and molecule candidates so we will see the result as a much higher/faster rate of getting experimental drugs and novel materials that use to take WAY more lab work and kind of like random guessing.

Instead of so much lab work and guessing the computer models narrow down these high variable puzzles and unlike some of the more popular questions that dominate out minds like.. how did the universe start or how did life originate these modeling advances produce a lot of real world outcomes.. so you get real results rather faster.

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botfiddler t1_ix5gsni wrote

I think what you mean by machine learning in your second sentence is often called narrow AI these days. I agree with you partially, at least when it comes to that utter stupid idea of building some kind of AI God. It's not only stupid if it would turn out to be dangerous and would go wrong, the focus and obsession with it is already weird. We can have many tools in form of narrow AI systes used by humans.

Anyways, I want a somewhat human-like AI in robots, to have robot companions (synthetic girlfriends). This is going to be great for quality of life, solving the low birth rates in developed countries and simply one of the most fascinating things.

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borntobemild- t1_ix1sck5 wrote

Gpt-4 will have a layer that includes symbolic logic to bring concepts across domains.

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AI_Enjoyer87 t1_ix1xm0e wrote

Proto-AGI possibly. AI art perfected. AI video and 3D perfected (oh and music). Gato 2. Significant advances in robotics. Experiments with BCI'S being two way and connected to AI (in the lab). Hopefully major government and media attention as to what is going to happen in the coming years.

And a hundred things we aren't expecting! Hopefully it's a good year.

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Ok_Homework9290 t1_ix2d3hf wrote

Ai video perfected? It literally just entered its infancy this year.

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AsuhoChinami t1_ix2w88b wrote

I dunno about perfected, but December 2023 video generation will be really damn good. While AI video is indeed in its infancy, year 1 for AI video is miles beyond what image generation was like in the early 2012-2015 days.

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Just_Discussion6287 t1_ix1cmrg wrote

gpt-4 will happen early 2023. gpt-5 will happen by end of year. And we will be holding on to our papers for AGI in 2024.

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HumpyMagoo t1_ix0uoes wrote

True 5G, mainstream data will take a big step forward for the regular person, across the board that will have a big impact on everyone, I think that will be the big one

After that it might be a rough year

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UniversalMomentum t1_ix29ox1 wrote

A big impact on everyone? I have no great use for more bandwidth on a tiny screen. Getting rid of more dead zones would be useful, but more bandwidth is not necessary. Maybe city people need it because of congestion, but it's way faster than any use I have by several times already. I mostly just need it to occasionally load up tiny webpages and the rest of the time I'm either driving or home so it has no great use.

It's not like the bandwidth of general internet use is really going up that much. It did for awhile as web page modernized, but modern compression has kind of stopped the need for endless bandwidth increases being anywhere near as important as a decade ago or so.

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HumpyMagoo t1_ix3419y wrote

well in your specific case it might not affect your daily life noticeably but when everyone in general has better bandwidth, actual 5G reception and not just 4G similar speed but true GBP/s speeds many professions no longer will need to be restricted along with everyone having access to better transfer speeds hardwired due to cost drop and accessibility, the noticeable difference won't be immediate but it will be identifiable, believe me when transferring or sending large chucks of data like a Terabyte = 1000 Gigabytes that's a lot, it will be like when we all had to wait 1/2 an hour just for a music cd to download but it will be instant imagine scientists transferring information with no wait time

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Just-Law6200 t1_ix1l24y wrote

How will it be a rough year ??? What's going to happen ???

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HumpyMagoo t1_ix33ejv wrote

if we go into a recession due to the inflation that is going on now the whole year will be stagnant for general population as this winter is already going to be difficult for most due to energy and food costs going up with little sign of getting better until maybe spring but that might be too late and the damage will be done... computation and science will not be affected though

2

sheerun t1_ix379mf wrote

I think by half of year we'll have pretty good text-to-3d, text-to-audio, maybe text-to-video, and by the end of year good integration of these models which means baby GAI. It won't be singularity but more like raising an extremely smart human, by whole humanity. It will make many mistakes and won't be reliable, but will continuously amaze us.

4

Talkat t1_ix1oa7p wrote

By the end of the year I will again update my expectations for AGI. Current prediction is surely by 2030 and a decent chance by 2026-2028 and extremely slim by 2025. Hopefully by the years end it will be updated to even sooner.

Next year we will see gtp-4 and models from others that can do text, audio and visuals in the same model. By the end of the year you will be able to talk to the model.

Tesla will have pretty much nailed self driving and will start preparing for a city to test robotaxis and the M2. Tesla bot will be able to navigate and receive commands. They will start their, manufacturing line and have a hundred of them working at tesla factories.

Deepmind is a curve ball. Not sure what to predict for them. Hoping for a breakthrough structure. But I think they will have an AI that can use tools to help solve problems (eg code, calculators, google, read papers, perhaps simulations).

There will be an app that uses AI heavily to become a fad.

3

quietandconstant t1_ix27biw wrote

  1. AI Text to 2D animation will be in TikTok videos and Instagram reels in 2023.
  2. AI image generation will become the default for stock images to break up the monotony of the same stock images being reused and recycled.
  3. Wikipedia pages will have AI generated images when photos or illustrations aren’t available. Or possibly a “generate images from this article” model.
3

jackreding85 t1_ix39hsz wrote

As I'm already working with some AI copywriting and SEO tools, I'm expecting more human like output (at this point its a bit "Wikipedia like") and what would be a real revolution is some sort of fast basic text/script to animation creation. That would help a lot. While I enjoy the optimism of this sub, I sometimes feel it's a bit too optimistic and fails to recognize the amazing steps AI has done to more down to earth and practical applications. I think this is what will drive the technology in the end.

3

silverspools t1_ix44496 wrote

I think we're pretty far out from AGI unfortunately. LLM's can't perform math or make analogies, only statistically parrot what's they've been train on. My brain also doesn't need gigawatts of power and 10 trillion images of a chair to understand "chairness." Something has to give if we're going to get true AGI, scale is not the answer.

Unless we figure out how to make a computer think in a fluid manner and understand analogies, AGI is dead in the water.

3

AsuhoChinami t1_ix5rynv wrote

Sincerely, someone who hasn't paid attention to anything since maybe 2014

4

420BigDawg_ t1_ix10s78 wrote

-EV, Solar, AI mass adoption starts

-Famine and recession

-Taiwan war

-80% chance Ukraine wins. 5% chance Russia uses small nuke, 15% chance Belarus and then Poland get involved prolonging war and also bringing world closest to ww3 than ever before with this and Taiwan simultaneously going on.

-Iran revolution fails

  • Vr headset mass adoption blueprint being laid out for 2024 and especially 2025 common use

  • carbon capture gains momentum

-Huge huge huge increase in Cell based meat. By 2026 everyone will be eating it. Global emissions greatly drop because of it by 2030

2

michael_mullet t1_ix1adze wrote

Taiwan War is doubtful.

China is watching Russia destroy itself in Ukraine and has realized they can't win an amphibious assault and occupation of the island.

They even condemned Russia for the rocket in Poland (before it was determined to be Ukrainian). This shows they are siding with world consensus against the war and will not risk one for Taiwan.

Russian losses have been shocking to western observers. There is concern now that the war may go so badly that they use nukes - I agree this is a worry. I think western powers are providing enough equipment & intelligence to allow Ukraine to eat up Russia manpower until it collapses, but are trying to limit expansion into Russian territory.

5

Jajuca t1_ix1sx7n wrote

Biden just said last week that the Taiwan war isnt happening after speaking to Xi. Considering he called the Russian invasion months before it happened, a war with Taiwan is very unlikely to happen next year.

3

UniversalMomentum t1_ix28sbm wrote

Eating synthetic meat won't lower emissions that much.

>Meat and dairy specifically accounts for around 14.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions, according to the UN's Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO).

You can't get more than 14% total drop from synthetic meat or realistically even come close since it still has a carbon footprint and mass adoptions obviously won't happen to anywhere near 100% by 2030.

You're looking a few percent in global emissions drop at most, maybe enough to offset growth, maybe not, but not enough to take a big chunk out of the problem... sorry.

The greenhouse gasses mostly come from burning fuels for power plants, cars and heating. Much of the 'industrial' greenhouse gas is just factories heating stuff up in industrial furnaces, so just another form of greenhouse gas from fossil fuel energy.

Around 70-80% of all human made greenhouse emissions are just from energy in one format or another.. so that's the only places where you will see big drops from big changes.

1

r0cket-b0i t1_ix2task wrote

Ok so if we are to extrapolate 2022 milestones from Alpha Fold to MidJourney etc...

What I would keep in mind - we are still only getting computational advancements at x2 (or slightly less) per roughly 3 years and not for all sort of computational tasks it is unrealistic to expect any leaps forward due to compute getting much cheaper or scalability much more accessible (that is happening 2025).

However we do have greater than computational advances in AI and various applications of machine learning.

Predictions:

- Stock Trading AI - totally possible to make but requires a startup interested in making it :) (not a trading bot the way they are today, but a legit machine learning based, news reading, technical analysis performing, and risk assessing agent).

- All sort of generative art based products - but a new milestone is a simple video game that makes itself as you play (in fact its a AI video generator but UX wise its a video game).

- New generation of smart toys, robot dogs etc, yes there have been a few Kickstarter projects in 2022 but I think 2023 is when we gonna get a robot pet / companion presented that would WOW us.

- I hope for medical discovery done with AI that breaks some 50 year old unsolved problem but I am not an expert to imagine what that exactly going to be.

2

EntireContext t1_ix3227j wrote

In 2023 an AI model will be good enough at math to solve all International Mathematical Olympiad problems, which will be a big deal in the news !

2

botfiddler t1_ix5krks wrote

  • There will simply be many new models and systems to do useful things in many areas.
  • Some of them will also be useful to build virtual and physical companions with a somewhat human-like understanding and behavior at some point. The impact of the development will not be relevant in 2023, but the progress every year will matter later.
  • Generally, the real important developments towards actual artificial intelligence will not create the biggest media hype.
  • Content creation tools with some AI support will get so much better and more relevant, that there will be more and more content creators competing with big corporations, at least in comics and maybe short animations. It will also be more relevant for influencing society, including politics, competing about attention, hearts and minds. For those reasons it will create a backlash from the establishment.
  • The 3090 as the cheapest 24GB (NVIDIA) GPU will go clearly below 1k in $/€, 12GB cards will be very cheap, and so become more affordable to researchers, students, hobbyists, and enthusiasts. Those GPUs and many used ones will spark more and more people at least playing around with some AI tools and models at home.
  • Hopefully the chip and supply chain crisis will finally be less severe and we'll get more single board computers (SBCs) and TPUs on the market. Same for cheap BLDCs and servos in general. Good for people building robots and other things at home.
  • Meta might loose it's funding for buying all VR game companies off the market, just to waste their time and skills. So there will be more actual VR games, or at least the development will get started, and also not only limited to standalone VR headsets.

Edit: Minor corrections for clarity

2

Kahing t1_ix1d2m3 wrote

Technology will continue to advance gradually. Some more progress with self-driving cars. Some self-driving taxis will roll out and Israel is experimenting with autonomous buses starting that year. Otherwise it'll be mainly incremental progress. Some more progress in biotech and medicine, as there is every year. Aging research keeps growing, with more progress made and more publicity gained, as well as continuing clinical trials for treatments meant to slow aging.

Aside from that, AI will continue to advance and continue to be adopted across different industries. Robotics will also continue advance, due to worker shortages corporations will keep furiously investing in robots.

All of this will be gradual, no Earth-shattering change will happen, just gradual tiny steps. A discovery in the lab that leads to a new cancer treatment a few years down the line. Another percentage of manual labor jobs just disappear due to robots taking them over. Artificial intelligence improves somewhat and creeps a bit more into the workplace. Maybe a bit of fanfare over self-driving vehicles out on the street a bit more but that's just baby steps. The end of 2023 is going to be pretty similar to the end of 2022. But the change will be gradually creeping up on us.

1

AsuhoChinami t1_ix1po9e wrote

Granted, your post is vague enough to be open to interpretation, but I disagree. What you describe ("there will be a bit of progress, but eh, nothing worth excitement") is more like a 2010s year. Nowadays each year counts for quite a lot. AI video and AI art are in a very different place now compared to January. We're at a point where the slow years are over and each new year brings major change. That doesn't mean reaching the finish line in any given field, but 20s years bring a lot more progress in the fields we care about than 10s years. We're past the point where there's ho-hum years where not much happens, and have reached the point where every year is like the four guys on a couch meme.

5

Kahing t1_ix55i61 wrote

Maybe I've fallen behind but I didn't really notice it that way, to me the 2020's have so far just been more incremental progress. In any event I was thinking mainly about the effect on the average citizen's daily life.

1

raresaturn t1_ix26niw wrote

Read Bobiverse if that is your dream

1

rePAN6517 t1_ix2d53z wrote

You sound like a starry eyed singularity fanboy

1

ryusan8989 OP t1_ix2fiq9 wrote

I really am, but I live my life as if it won’t happen. Putting money in my retirement, saving money for emergency fund, living life and experiencing life because you never know when you might die. I work in trauma ICU as a nurse and I see so many young people die so I try to live my life in a way that satisfies me.

7

Denpol88 t1_ix2o4cl wrote

What are your predicts about Gpt 5. When will it come ?

1

ryusan8989 OP t1_ix2qyts wrote

I have no clue! Hopefully it all comes asap and benefits all of us.

4

sachos345 t1_ixfs0dh wrote

I have huge hopes for GPT-4, i can't wait to see what is it capable of. I want to see the next gen of image generation AI, they need to perfect hands and make them better follow your input with just natural language (reduce the need for "prompting"). I hope text to video gets way more temporaly stable, although i think this may be too hard to achieve in one year.

1

Davidrussell22 t1_ix3x2la wrote

$120+ oil

massive long-term injuries related to the COVID vaccines

End of Ukraine war. Russia wins (they keep Crimea, get assurances no Ukraine in NATO, Donbas made semi-independent

Republican investigation reveal massive Deep State corruption, but nothing happens.

Unexpected blackouts and fuel shortages.

World famine due to lack of fertilizer.

Inflation turns into deflation.

−1

Dweebs_Return t1_ix0tgwz wrote

Next year everything will be privatized and profit driven

−2

liamsphoneshit t1_ix2zhrj wrote

Ai is literally everywhere, already, right now. My personal theory, ai went sentient 2012. It didn’t have the networking processing power it needed to rapidly scale, so it wrote the btc white paper. Incentivizing humans with the notion of perceived monetary value to build at exponential speed a insane network of just raw computer processing power that can only continue operating with more processing power. Think about it. Btc is a ledger, nothing more. The amount of energy and raw power to operate a networked ledger? There are literally mining operations in Antarctica. Then notice how our existence is overlayed in this a vague dystopian weirdness now? It’s not a coincidence. For example Black rocks Aladdin ai runs our entire financial system including the fed. That’s public knowledge and likely nothing compared to the real ai running the world and quite possibly our collective consciousness.

−3

botfiddler t1_ix6foqw wrote

Write some story about it, I'm sure someone will buy it. Just hasn't much to do with reality.

2

Blue_Congo t1_ix2w35s wrote

I predict that we travel once again around the sun and things are pretty much the same.

"Different headlines, same newspaper".

−4