Kind of and not really? I (along with everyone else) was awaiting DALLE-2, but the explosion did come out of left field. That said, I don't think I had a prediction on that, and my only predictions prior to that were either high level (AGI median 2024) or framed differently (I have a number of predictions on Metaculus from that period for example).

As for whether they're 'too conservative', honestly while it'd be nice, I can't (or at least won't) make predictions without some basis for extrapolation. So things that are out of the blue (such as the aforementioned explosion of image generation models) aren't really likely to show up in that context. I can acknowledge they happen, but they aren't easily modeled generally speaking.