And here I can't even predict what's going to happen next year. 🤷

I can, society will look exactly the same but we will have made some small improvements in technology 🤷‍♂️

laughs in RCP 8.5

How can you know about it for sure?

What are the technical reasons causing you to think the singularity won't happen until 2050?

I think when AGI is created, ASI won't be far behind, and I consider ASI to be the singularity,

Black swans are funny; I love how things suddenly go from "'it'll never happen" to "it was inevitable". And somehow people never anticipate the next one.

We could cure aging next year and everyone will be saying it took too long and Ponce de Leon was working on it 500 years ago.

If we returned for a while to the first days of this year, and told people (for example) about advancements of imaginative AI, not all took that seriously.

Because getting to that fast a pace in technological development takes time, even if we had an ASI today we wouldn't see the singularity for at least a decade, probably more. We can reach a technological singularity without an ASI.

Because over the last 100 years every single year has only seen small improvements. But they have gotten slighly larger because technology is developing exponentially. The singularity is when these small yearly improvements have gotten so big 1 years difference would be like going from 1900-2000.

No we can't cure aging next year, that will 100% not happen. That's not how science and technology works. There is not a single case of something being discovered one year and then have completly changed the world the same year. When we reach the singularity that will happen though.

Yeah but that's a very small part of the science world. I'd say it's the one that is moving the fastest right now but making predictions about such specific things is hard.

Naah im not that worried about global warming, im incredibly optimistic that we're gonna solve it. It's gonna get worse for a few decades but it'll mostly be solved by 2060 and it's not gonna be something we consider an issue by 2100.

I love how you phrased that as if it's an overly pessimistic timeline. plenty of people believe we'll never see AGI, good on you for thinking otherwise!

I am old enough to remember the announcement that scientists are going to decode the entire human genome and it will take at least 45 years. The next year it was completely decoded.

[deleted]