I don't know. Or rather, there is only one thing that comes to mind: even minor political decisions can take months or even years to be discussed and then implemented; I don't expect AGIs to be particularly concerned with their compatibility with our current political apparatus, and that probably means there will be some sort of chaos. Hence the "I don't know".

I also don't know how fast we will get there, but it seems obvious that multimodality will solve a lot of the common pitfalls of current LLMs. Texts tell a bunch of narratives and there is a bunch of unrealistic stuff there that looks reasonable if your only source of information is text; but I don't see how most of this unrealistic stuff would survive a model trained on texts, images, videos, audio (etc?) as any idea the model would come up with would lie at the intersection of what is both textually and visually possible.

Like, it's easier to mess up the act of finger-counting if your only concept of doing it comes from text than when you have an image of hands that comes with the text. It makes sense that it would constrain the space of possible mistakes, what do you think? Then, there would also need to be some sort of continuous learning to truly have an AGI and not a snapshot of it, maybe? I read somewhere that it's being solved, so it doesn't seem to be decades away.

And scale is of course important, but the real investments haven't begun, yet; it seems that the hundreds of millions, or even billions of dollars that could be used to train AIs will only be unlocked when some of the previous stuff makes an AI that can be used as a virtual worker. By then, data produced by AIs might be good enough to make more training data, and there will be more use cases anyway so people will feed more data to OpenAI (and others) so the amount of data might not be a constraint anymore.

To me, it looks like we'll get to the knee of the curve in 5 to 10 years but my prediction is as good as any other, so yeah, I don't know.