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Kolinnor t1_iyqpx8l wrote

It was without the shadow of a doubt the most intense year ever for AI. And I expect the following years to be even crazier.


User1539 t1_iysht53 wrote

I was going to say, AI breakthroughs alone would have been enough to keep me feeling like we're speeding toward something.

Then you look at breakthroughs in Graphene, Fusion, magnetics, etc ... and it feels like the future is coming at an increasing pace.

Which is what we're here for, right?


Makingggserver t1_iysxq3e wrote

explain why


Kolinnor t1_iyur259 wrote

We had insane results in scaling (Palm, Lamda (can't remember if that's 2022 though), Chinchilla and others), the baby steps of general agents (notably Gato), and many things that prove that many (if all) things are in reach of AI, notably : mathematics at a pretty serious level (Minnerva), and of course the realization with text-to-image models (Dalle-2, Stable Diffusion), that artists might be, at least partially, replaced in a very near future. Cherry on the cake for ChatGPT that gives a wild peak into the capabilities of GPT-4, which was rumored to be announced this year.

Thing is : we haven't really figured out "common sense" / level 2 reasoning (even though large language models exhibit some reasoning capabilities, I'd say it's still primitive). So whenever we get level 2 reasoning, we're probably in the singularity. When is that ? 10 years ? 20 years ? Maybe. But certainly not 50 years.

In the meantime, neat "narrow" applications probably won't stop to flourish...


DBKautz t1_iyqktmg wrote

The amount of "holy shit"-moments i have per week is rising exponentially.


fastinguy11 t1_iyqh3q5 wrote

ahhh ? we still have the rest of December hold your horses


Sea-Advertising-3408 t1_iyqye1z wrote

I think the advancement of AI is slowly becoming mainstream and you can either embrace it or ignore it. As a 20 year old working to become a comp sci major, the chatGPI being able to somewhat code is absolutely terrifying to me.


freeman_joe t1_iyrgumj wrote

Good maybe people will start demanding UBI faster.


PrivateLudo t1_iyuc9g1 wrote

I hope we get UBI as fast as possible but humans tend to not act until massive amount of damage is already done


marcellux314 t1_iyrxgt0 wrote

give it another 10 years and software writing ai may easily replace the average engineer

Higher order work will probably still be handled by humans and time spent on lower level tasks will be passed over to ai. Instead of needing 10 people on average for a project there will likely be 2-3 programmers left with an ai assitant.
The current boom in the number of software engineers will contribute to the advancement of these ai assitants providing them with unprecedented amount of data.


camdoodlebop t1_iytqyyf wrote

10 years is probably too conservative with the speed of this technology


tatleoat t1_iyrctl5 wrote

I feel like 2022 is going to be remembered as the last year before shit hits the fan and AI explodes in the public consciousness as the most important thing going on in our lives. I think we're going to start to see entire job sectors disappear, maybe not industries but most businesses are going to lose at least one department.


hmurphy2023 t1_iys9s3p wrote

I disagree.

If you look at the world around you right now, you'll realize it looks pretty similar to the way the world has looked for a long time, despite the advancements we've made in AI and other technologies. Sure things have changed, but the overall shape of the daily lives of humans and society has pretty much been the same for quite some time.

I highly doubt that we'll just step into a new year next year and that in the span of that year, society will undergo so much sudden and abrupt change that it'll look completely different than just the year before.

Technology will continue advancing and changing society, but it'll be gradual IMO. However, I do think society will look pretty different a decade from now, and even more so in 2050.


tatleoat t1_iyt1qvw wrote

Totally respect that, I think that's rational. It's just that I also see AdeptAI and how close at hand it is and how many low skill office jobs that it would obliterate overnight. It has more to do with how many nonsense jobs there are that take very little substance than the actual raw power of the AI. it won't take much brainpower but it'll knock out more jobs than we think and that's what's gonna shake us


hmurphy2023 t1_iytaya1 wrote

I respect your opinion, too. =)

I guess it depends on how many of those jobs exist and how easy they are to automate, and how fast the AI gets adopted at companies.

I will say that the CEO of Adept has said on some occasions that goal of the company is to augment and not replace humans.


-ZeroRelevance- t1_iytxpkd wrote

That said, if you augment a human to do two people’s worth of work, suddenly one person becomes unnecessary and has been replaced.


Professional-Song216 t1_iyugo5i wrote

When you say a long time, what timeframe are you talking about? Often people say the times have changed quite A lot, would you say that they are exaggerating and in what ways?


Opticalzone OP t1_iyuwm7w wrote

If you mean physical changes like why are there no green tall skyscrapers and buildings made out of wood with plants hanging on the side of buildings is because we don't need them. How do you define change? if you define real change as use living on mars then I am confident that real change won't even in 40 years. As AI and tech, in general, get more advanced the less that the user has to adapt to it.


DungeonsAndDradis t1_iyx30fp wrote

The thing that everyone uses every day, in 10 years, hasn't been invented yet.


DedRuck t1_iysu1d4 wrote

hard disagree, there is still much to be done to really get the attention of the general public


Bataranger999 t1_iyqgcqu wrote

A year that was situated upon the steep end of the S curve.


thePsychonautDad t1_iyrxtj6 wrote

I wasn't expecting GPTchat this year.

It has written 2 softwares in C for me, start to finish. It fixed its own error when I provided error code. It gave me compilation instructions and setup instructions.

It has developed 3 half-baked short story plot, coming up with twists and details and written an entire 5 pages sci-fi short story that has a couple paragraphs that made me genuinely laugh out loud. That 5 page story took about 2h to generate, incrementally, including rewrite requests.

It has solved bugs that had me blocked for a couple hours, and it solved them correctly for me in 30sec.

It has translated and explained complex equations I had trouble understanding and implementing, I just provided the latex code for it.

The quality of this AI is incredible. It's very very close to an AGI. It's just missing a feedback loop and a consciousness.

I'd have expected that leap forward in maybe to 5 years, but not this year. It's crazy we're already there. Gave me "We're not there yet" vibes from Westworld.


AvgAIbot t1_iys332f wrote

I’ve been playing around with ChatGPT for my e-commerce start up and it’s been incredible for me as well.

I gave it my competitors product description and said to rewrite it with more humor and sass.

I was blown away by the result. Copy writing skills of an advanced copy writer. Everything made sense too.


thed4rkl0rd t1_iysldyi wrote

How exactly did you phrase that question? When I try the same it replies with that it cannot rewrite or provide original content …


AvgAIbot t1_iytxmw9 wrote

I just said “rewrite the following product description using more humor and sass: {product description text}”


AvgAIbot t1_iys3hd7 wrote

ChatGPT is fucking amazing. I can’t imagine what’s going to happen in the next few years, with it being so good already.

I imagine it’ll start integrating with other tools like gmail, spreadsheets, code editors, marketing tools, etc. Then it can complete actions too, like “look up x data and then organize it into a new google sheet”


ObjectiveDeal t1_iyu8q5a wrote

Disappointing, the rich got richer and ai will work for the rich man with their horrible traits highlighted. We are transitioning from a work like slavery to a new kind of slavery in the future. There has to be someone making money from this and that in a nut shell is the reason why we are going down.


corwynaf t1_iyrifoq wrote

Definitely interesting.


PrivateLudo t1_iyuevvi wrote

In 2018-2019, I always told people that I thought the 20s decade was going to be absolutely WILD, I dont know why but I just felt it. I didnt expect things to get crazy this fast though.


AF881R t1_iys80bz wrote

Disappointing versus where we could be but there’s always next year ♥️


TummyLice t1_iyu4ea1 wrote

just waiting for the grey goo nanobot swarms.


PatyKerry98 t1_iz01xzo wrote

This was the fastest and most satifying year about Ai