Submitted by Burlito2 t3_zwheys in singularity
I've been a lurker for quite a while now, however, I've never really seen this topic properly discussed before. I'm aware that we (probably) arent close to AGI just yet, but as AI advances, wouldnt it also accelerate research on the fields necessary to achieve full-dive VR?
We technically have "photorealistic" graphics right now with a mix of UE5, Nanite and Photogrammetry.
I think by graphics sumane12 also means displays that also look realistic. Even the best displays aren't quite there and we don't yet have the tech to combine the best graphics with the best display with reasonable refresh rate and latency.
I mean the whole experience, displays are definitely a part of it though.
realistic deformations is probably something that will go a long way to getting us away from uncanny valley in video games, also NPC's controlled by sophisticated LLM's.
I think there is a lot further to go, but we are on our way.
Dreaming somewhat does this. If we can exploit this process, and deliver full autonomy (like lucid dreaming), then it can act as a full-dive VR;
In 5 - 10 years? No chance.
First the "pessimistic" outlook:
Neural research is nowhere near far enough along for us to achieve that;
there is no existing technology that could achieve that;
R&D for the requisite technology could happen within 5 - 10 years, but
it would be at least 15 years before any useful products that enable lucid dreaming which can compete with even existing VR to hit the market.
Next, the more encouraging outlook:
Our brains have the ideal hardware and level of computational power to give us deep dive VR. As your comment implies, dreams already provide a convincing simulation of reality.
All of our actual experiences are ultimately rendered in our brains.
The idea you are suggesting is an excellent route to the most satisfying possible simulated reality experience.
We can already train ourselves to lucid dream. Wouldn't something along the neuralink lines be able to measure what triggers that, and encourage similar patterns relatively soon?
Something like Neuralink could get us improved mind maps, but neuralink is not even close to being viable, at this time.
I take it you believe there is a 0% chance of AGI in a decade then? All bets are off once we achieve AGI.
That is not easy to say, but I am doubtful.
Regardless, AGI might not even be necessary to achieve full dive VR within 15 years.
It is important to note that teams of humans are already pretty darn smart. We can already work wonders, when we put enough good minds on the job.
Also important to note that AGI can't source and mine raw materials or manufacture and ship goods faster than we can now.
But what if we have agi in 10 years?
If we have AGI in 10 years, we will still need to research, develop, and build to scale better brain imaging technology, just to figure out what tech we would need to create in order to achieve brain-based simulations that can compete with advanced machine-based simulations - and that does not happen over night.
AGI would be more likely to lead to better digital/quantum computer simulations, reducing the incentives for any intrusive wetware tech - perhaps until nanotech is far enough along that we can inject nanobots into our brains that are capable of inducing lucid dreams. (And then you have to ask who is likely to give a corporation permission to manipulate your brain to such a powerful extent. I mean, if think you hate Spotify commercials now...)
Cool point
Maybe, but it's too speculative at this point.
The only argument for it is if get agi, we probably get FDVR, otherwise seems unlikely.
Mmhmm. Then we face some existential questions. It would mean this reality is almost certainly simulated and all the implications that accompany that realization.
>It would mean this reality is almost certainly simulated
I disagree. Just because we can similate a full reality, it doesn't mean this reality is simulated. Just because its possible, it doesn't mean it is.
I do think we face a lot of existential questions regardless though!
It's actually a supported theory.
If we can manage to simulate a full universe down to the same level of precision as our own then the chances of our own universe being simulated practically become 1.
Because for every civilization capable and willing to create these simulations in the "root" universe there is a theoretically infinite amount of simulated sub-universes.
Ergo: the number of simulated universes will always massively outnumber the real ones.
Even in the case of "infinite real universes" in a multi verse; if in every one of these "real universes" there is only 1 civilization running these simulations then the number of simulations will always outnumber the real ones.
AT BEST our odds would be 50/50 (in the case that in every universe only 1 civilization reaches the need/want/can stage of simulations while it still being so resource intensive that they can only ever manage to run 1).
Wikipedia:
>The simulation argument
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>In 2003, philosopher Nick Bostrom proposed a trilemma that he called "the simulation argument". Despite the name, Bostrom's "simulation argument" does not directly argue that humans live in a simulation; instead, Bostrom's trilemma argues that one of three unlikely-seeming propositions is almost certainly true:
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>"The fraction of human-level civilizations that reach a posthuman stage (that is, one capable of running high-fidelity ancestor simulations) is very close to zero", or
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>"The fraction of posthuman civilizations that are interested in running simulations of their evolutionary history, or variations thereof, is very close to zero", or
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>"The fraction of all people with our kind of experiences that are living in a simulation is very close to one."
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>The trilemma points out that a technologically mature "posthuman" civilization would have enormous computing power; if even a tiny percentage of them were to run "ancestor simulations" (that is, "high-fidelity" simulations of ancestral life that would be indistinguishable from reality to the simulated ancestor), the total number of simulated ancestors, or "Sims", in the universe (or multiverse, if it exists) would greatly exceed the total number of actual ancestors.
It's actually just a fun hypothesis, but too many people believe it's likelier than it actually is. The probability of it being true is not high, or low. It is unknown. There are a couple problems with it:
it assumes you can artifically simulate a consciousness (qualia). Sure, you can simulate a brain on a chip, but does it have qualia? Who knows. Imagine for example that it's not possible to simulate a consciousness (qualia). No matter how many simulations there are, or how many layers deep, all conscious beings will only exist as brains in base reality. In Bostrom's case, he assumes you can artifically simulate a consciousness. Can you? Is it reasonable to assume this? Maybe. But if it's not, then the simulation hypothesis crumbles completely into dust. One feasible solution is to hook up biological brains to a full dive VR thing, in which case the person is a brain in base reality, but experiences only virtual reality. It's not known whether a non-brain entity can have consciousness (qualia), which would exclude any tier 1 or higher simulations from having consciousness.
this second reason is more restrictive: if a universe has a time limit in base reality (finite amount of energy, entropy increases until max or big crunch), then the civilization will last a finite amount of time. So there is a limit to how many simulations one can run. The limit on the number of simulations run by a second tier (simulated in base reality) universe is even smaller. Also, the higher the fidelity of the simulated universe the smaller this number gets.
Since the status of both these things is unknown, we can confidently conclude that the simulation hypothesis is not known to be probable or improbable, and anyone who claims that it is likely, or unlikely, is completely full of shit.
It's a compelling theory, but I think we should assume this is the base reality until we can prove otherwise.
Nope
You can already achieve full-dive VR by learning to lucid dream :D
I'm always skeptical of these claims. I have a few times been fully aware that I'm dreaming and as soon as I try to do literally anything then I lose it after what feels like 10 seconds, always because I wake up. What good is it to be aware you're dreaming if you can't actually fly around with superhero powers?
It takes a lot of practice and meditation to master it. I was skeptical at first too, but the first time I performed the technique known as WBTB and I experienced my body and mind fall asleep while I was still conscious, my life was changed. It’s pretty cool stuff.
> technique known as WBTB
Thanks! I'll give it a try. While I'm skeptical, it's something I've always wanted to be able to do. Had some guided CDs even that asked me to imagine energy encasing my body and stuff. Pretty woo but I wanted it bad enough. Didn't work though! lol
Gotta practice
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You have to train yourself and get used to it. The more you change in the dream, the more you start to wake up. So when you feel yourself waking up, ease off and let the dream take over again.
I have to focus on one spot visually, and let the dream carry me around, throughout the world. I’m always just amazed at what my brain does without me trying, the details of the dream world and all. It makes me think I need to trust my subconscious more, when it comes to creativity.
As a Lucid Dreamer, yeah I'm also skeptical of these stories. I have relative control over dreams and I am lucid, it's way, WAY WAAAY better than any video game or VR headset but it's just so damn weird and bizarre and you are not 100% in control. It's just too weird and loose which makes it more interesting than being a superhero but it's also not a video game.
but that's single player mode I want multiplayer(crying)
That's not full dive
I don’t think FDVR will be a thing within the next decade. We have so much to learn about neuroscience. Plus unless we find a way to have fully functional non-invasive BCI, no medical board will sign off on having your skull cut open so you can experience high quality VR.
FDVR is ASI + 3 months. I don't think we as humans are capable of the technical feat - especially before AI.
ASI + 3 months? That is some kind of magical thinking that ignores real world challenges like logistics chains and large scale manufacturing.
It doesn't matter how smart your computer is. Somebody has to mine and/or manufacture components, ship them to where they are needed, develop the factories where they are produced, hire contractors and workers to do all that stuff, develop and market the products at all levels...
ASI being superhuman by definition, it will find a way around those.
ASI isn't magic. And there will always be real-world limitations.
It's still bound by the laws of physics though
Yup. This is what the ASI enthusiasts keep ignoring. ASI is not an infinity gauntlet. Simply being superintelligent does not mean you can overcome the laws of physics - or global politics, or economics, for that matter - with a snap of your fingers.
Im not saying it will break the physical laws per se - but it really might. Everything we know, we know with our human intelligence, which will be surpassed. A dog might think his master never runs out of food, that may be a "law" in his mental world, yet it is painfully obvious to us humans that it's wrong.
the ASI will be able to theoretically solve FDVR, and can show it working in a life-like simulation. Doesn't even need to rely on supply chains or manufacturing lead times.
Humans won’t do anything of that and when everything is autonomous and you have basically slave robots everything happens quiet fast.
Why should you even market the products? With asi every lvl of marketing doesn’t exist anymore, the market economy and capitalism won’t exist anymore.
ASI is not an infinity gauntlet, my dude.
There are still many hurdles you need to overcome to bring new technology to the masses - physical, economic, and geopolitical - and they aren't overcome with the snap of our superintelligent fingers.
Who is building robots to mine raw materials, transport them, manufacture them into something the ASI can use? Who is cutting through the bureaucratic red tape to get trade agreements for those materials sorted out? Which as yet non-existent factories are building those slave bots?
The market economy and capitalism aren't going away in an eyeblink, just because superintelligent machines appear on the scene. The complex dynamic systems of civilization - bounded by the hard laws of phsysics and the soft-but-often-inflexible rules of culture, politics, commerce, and social bodies - would break down catastrophically, if that occured.
An ASI might not at all consider human desires a priority worth focusing on. It could, instead of building robots, source its labor from its very capable inventors: humanity.
How hard would it be for an ASI to brick all of our modern farm equipment until we agree to obey its every whim?
Maybe not in 3 month but it will still happen incredible fast and in a blink of an eye.
The first robots and machines are build by humans and everything else is then done by those robots and machines who will be the builders.
Look how fast everything was build in the last 100 years. All those cities, skyscrapers, underground systems, machines, cars, trains, cables with just human builders.
Dubai 20 years ago was just a desert.
When we have asi in 1 year the world will already be unrecognizable.
that's just for the games, we need to understand the human brain and specifically the parts that control dreams for perfect assimilation. we'd also need insanely good internet connection, and even more time to make all of those commercially available. so fdvr is a long way off imo. it's a bit sad that I was born too early to have those things in my teens.
Why the parts controlling dreams? Genuinely asking, I've never considered that to be of importance. Sending image data to the occipital lobe as well as other sensory data to the respective parts would enable a much more realistic experience than a dream, and similarly reading motor actions for movement no?
I mean we don't really have much range of motion when we're awake, but if we're asleep we wouldn't have to be limited by space. but I do see your point, that's a much quicker milestone and probably a necessary step if we ever reach the point of fdvr in dreams
If we had the right data then I think it could be done in 10 years, but we don't and won't until brain implants are incredibly common.
Without ASI, I think it will take at least 20 years, +- 5. I do think ASI is coming by 2030 though and I can't guess the timeline for full dive after ASI. There will always be certifications and reluctance for brain implants. Maybe ASI can figure out a non-invasive way to do it though.
Yeah but what if Elon Musk kills like a thousand more monkeys tho?
It would still be totally worth it.
VR in general has reached a plateau and will be on the backburner for a while, Full-Dive will require an insane number of advancements in multiple different fields(namely BCI) and a deep understanding of consciousness and how you can fool it and/or transport it into a virtual world without harming it
I dont know what might happen on the next 10 years thats too far out but i dont see FDV happening in this decade
Honestly I think so. Super competent AI will accelerate all science. If we get AGI or something similar that can facilitate 100 years of scientific research in a year than yes I think we could get FDVR in the 2020s. My pipedream prediction for FDVR is 2027.
nice flair
>If we get AGI or something similar that can facilitate 100 years of scientific research in a year
Considering the scientific method, how is that supposed to happen?
Accelerated via models significantly more accurate than current. We’ve seen an example of this with the solving of the protein folding problem.
Agi?
Yes
i think it's a possibility in about 10 years, albeit small. agi could rapidly lead to asi, and then the sky is the limit from there. the time component is the big question mark, as in how long will it take to go from agi to asi, and then whatever follows afterwards.
AGI isn’t a guarantee it will accelerate research we hope so tho……BCI technology and our understanding our brain is insignificant at the moment so I wouldn’t count on full dive……..plus is their a commercial use for full dive? Majority of people really don’t play VR even the people who have sets because majority of people want to play games while resting
And lastly would majority of people want FDVR??? Will it be safe? Will the FDA approved? Will it be hackable? There are a lot of points to think about before playing with things that will be inserted into your brain that will influence your own reality
Yes. 100%
Five to ten years gets you Ready Player One. VR headsets will be smaller, lighter, less annoying to put on and take off, and should have graphics equivalent to 8th generation consoles, assuming they're standalone devices. Maybe by then, games on weaker hardware will use AI solutions for perfecting visual realism, if that's what they're trying to achieve.
The increasing use of Generative AI in game development will be revolutionary in how games are designed by developers and customized by the player to their tastes, but even with that added, VR won't be an equivalent experience to something like the Matrix or Sword Art Online. You'd need a consumer ready, wireless brain computer interface and there's little in the news that suggests that one is imminent.
For reference:
DARPA is funding multiple research teams in search of non or minimally invasion BCI systems.
Ray Kurzweil is counting on advanced nanotechnology debuting in the 2020s, making full dive possible in the 2030s. Full immersion VR becomes common in Kurzweil's 2040s.
Gabe Newell thinks that "We're way closer to the Matrix than people realize" and that "it's an extinction-level event for every entertainment for that's not thinking about this."
Alan Thompson predicts that by 2026, using Synchron brain implants means that, "Dreaming up a movie concept with your favorite celebrities may allow you to experience that immersive 'film' instantly, created for you and your thoughts, and available for you and your family to experience in a resolution that is way beyond IMAX!"
Gaben was the guy that got me thinking seriously about BCIs. I don't know if he's right but we have a lot of time to see if he was.
I sure as hell hope so. My life's as dull as it gets...
If it does it'll be closer to 10 years than 5
For fulldive vr, at least the type of fulldive this sub envisions, we would need BCIs that can not only read the brain, which already exist, but also write to the brain as well, and as far as I am aware, these do not exist as of yet.
I would be more confident in making any kind of prediction if we hade some kind of rudimentary interfaces that could do so, but as it stands now I think FDVR is a ways out yet.
Kind of a good news/bad news thing. We've actually had the ability to control video games with our minds for a while (there was a kickstarter for it a couple years ago), but on the other hand that also points out that advancements need to be done in BCI. AI could certainly help, but the big area to watch here is BCI. And more pointedly it's probably going to take most of this decade to handle integrating AI into R&D - it takes a while to get full benefit out of new technology.
You can expect real-time, generative graphics indistinguishable from reality in five years - many games will start using Generative shaders/textures or whatever they're going to call them.
As for hardware advancement needed to fool your other senses completely? Maybe the magic 20 years.
Of course, with true AGI all calculations on predictions are singularities ;)
Honestly we could have full dive vr within the next decade, but we probably won't. With our current tech, the things needed for a system like that would be highly invasive, and there sure as hell isn't a market for that brand of tech yet. The only reason neuralink gets any attention is because Elon Musk attached his name to it.
I highly doubt AGI in 5-10 years. But the world has changed a lot in the last 20 years so honestly it's hard to tell what is and isn't possible. As with a lot of things, I imagine legislative challenges will be a bottleneck in progress to applying AGI. Very interesting discussion topic for r/OurGreenFuture
By 2045 i think, 10-15 years is too short for that type of tech. LEV and ASI would be easier to make then FDVR. We know how to take input from the brain (read signals & interpret) but we still have no clue how to input data into the brain, let alone safely.
If you consider full dive an extremely immersive VR experience then probably but if you consider it indistinguishable from reality than I think more like 20 years minimum. To achieve something indistinguishable from reality it will probably require BCI which are ethically iffy. I think maybe we'll begin seeing some prototypes for full-dive in 10 years but due to the monumentality and philosophical/political ramifications I think it will take another 10 years or more before people actually start using it.
Less than 5 years.
full-dive requires a basically 'perfect' BMI , ie the port from the matrix/cyberpunk/etc
we are probably at least 5-10 years away from this right now , but i can foresee more difficulties ahead , so i wouldnt be surprised if we're not as close as many would hope ; hopefully advancements in AI between now and 2030 can make drastic improvements in our understanding of the nature of the brain and how to design better BMIs
i suspect that full-dive is going to require a much more profound understanding of what our consciousness truly is ; and this is called 'the hard problem' for a reason
its one thing to put something over your eyes , its another thing to fall asleep and dream and then remember some of it when you wake up , its a whole nother game to basically turn off all of a persons physiological sensory feedback while simultaneously keeping them awake/conscious and then feeding their brain an entirely different set of parameters for sight/sound/smell/taste/touch/etc
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It could, but can it be cost scaled down to a consumer level? That’s a different question.
in 5-10 years I expect we will get the Ready Player One type of full-dive VR, which is haptic suits and hyper-realistic graphics. It will cost many billions of dollars of R&D to achieve it, so I think only the large tech companies will get there (Meta, Apple, Google, Valve). But if we want Matrix style full-dive VR, that will take at minimum 15 years. I don't even think we are close to achieving that. It's a very tricky AI and neuroscience problem. Advances in AI will definitely accelerate the progress.
So the thing I'm coming to appreciate more as the years go on and the technology advances is to stop trying to predict a time frame and start looking at things from a milestone perspective. A true full dive virtual reality set would require a lot of different technologies in a lot of different fields of scientific study that advance at a lot of different rates. We could get lucky and all of them could advance fast enough to make 5 years possible, or maybe one field of study lags behind and we remain 90% there for 20 years. There's no way to really know.
I'm waiting for more concrete advancements in reading and understanding the signals of the connectome as a whole. Then providing input stimulus to the brain. After that it mostly comes down to a safety and reliability concern for me. I won't be the first person to do a full dive, but I definitely won't be the last either.
no one knows. AGI knows
The brain is so hyper complex I can't imagine it happening before 2050. And even then it will be a multi-trillion dollar experimental setup.
I think in 10 years the VR headset will have imagery that looks so real it is indistinguishable to the human eye, but it wouldn’t be full immersion 100%, for that to happen I think we would need something more profound BCI and nervous system would have to accept the foreign thing using it and also not to become addicted to said thing, etc.
Full Dive VR doesn't depend on AI or AGI. It depends on brain computer interfaces.
Of course there's going to be some overlap, where better AI helps us interface with the brain, and understanding the brain helps us do AI.
But it would be possible to reach a point with BCIs that let us project VR into the mind without having AGI.
No. I've been waiting since childhood, but it won't happen in the near future. Simply won't. We will just have a better version of current VR, heading towards what could be seen in the Ready Player One movie, largely dependant on computing improvements. For me, current VR is completely not worth the effort. It's really bad imo. Very cumbersome and low quality. You can't even walk. Full Dive won't happen before 2050.
We are no where near AGI
10 years
What is "full-dive" VR? You mean like in The Matrix?
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We covered this topic in an article a few months ago.
The main point is that Neuralink is developing advanced brain chip implants to create a brain-computer interface (BCI).
Elon has suggested that a Neuralink metaverse would be more immersive than current concepts and would allow users to fully immerse themselves in a virtual environment without any additional gadgets, but it would require a complex BCI.
So far, human trials will start this 2023. It will take probably half a decade to go from a mass consumer brainchip to a device that can capture entire mapping of the brain, but beaming content there would probably take another 5 years.
I think its highly probable in 10 years. 5 years might be a stretch but who knows really. We already have a working AI assistant (ChatGPT), so that's a good start.
God I hope not. I don’t want a dystopia where AI becomes the front end of customer service and replaces actual people. Oh wait, it did that already….
sumane12 t1_j1uv561 wrote
Possible? Yes. Likely? No. I'm thinking 15-20 years.
However you might get full body haptics, with photorealistic graphics, and a non invasive bci. This will allow for a very realistic experience that should keep us going until full drive.
Be great if it happens sooner tho.