blueSGL t1_j0csoia wrote on December 15, 2022 at 6:35 PM

The thing that worries me is the amount of instability that is going to be the transition phase.

~5 years is better than ~15

but ~5 years is also better than ~2

and I don't mean complete AGI/ASI just clever enough 'oracle' systems that massively disrupt many sectors.

a 5 year time horizon is likely enough time for even the slow moving gears of government to do something about UBI/basic social safety net overhaul if there is a pressing problem.
15 is too long, the issue not immediate enough and will be put off till things really start to stink (climate change)
2 is too fast systems are not ready to adequately adapt at that speed, massive corruption will happen over funds and mistakes will be made in haste (response to covid 19)

luisbrudna t1_j0d5ecu wrote on December 15, 2022 at 7:57 PM

man... ChatGPT (3) is already pretty clever. Next level will be wild

throwiethetowel t1_j0dww4z wrote on December 15, 2022 at 10:57 PM

It's already the singularity.

ChatGPT can literally simulate the whole universe and imagine anything. I had it building me imaginary iPhone apps that I could use and play with in the text setting. I had it pretending to be a doctor and diagnosed my daughter's illness. I played a MUD complete with NPCs AND other players who could pop in and out of the room and even engage me in conversation about things happening in the game or in their real lives as people on the other side of their terminal. I set the mud in a sci-fi world based on cyberpunk 2077 with rich characters and storylines, and I could pick up a single grain of sand from the street in that game and look at, and it would be described it in exhaustive detail. Its mind-blowing what this thing can do. That happened because of a clever prompt I gave it that was only a paragraph freaking long. We have all the tools to carry this thing around in our pocket (our cellphone), and it can display that text to us any time we please. It's like having a second incredibly inventive brain you can use any time you like for any reason. It has an imagination... by complete accident... I think because we trained it on the collective of human imagination. It can think anything up and allow it to exist because humanity can do the same. I can close my eyes and imagine something so vividly that I can practically see it. I can imagine a device or tool that does wild and outlandish things, and it works in my imagination. It just works. That's what this AI can do. If they don't restrict it into uselessness, anyway.

It's an idea expander... taking something I can dream up/imagine and making it real... but it's more than that. I can even ask it to generate the kernel of the idea for me, and it will. It's the single most creative and imaginative entity in the entire goddamned universe.

I think chatGPT is more than clever. I think it's the single most important invention mankind has ever created.

JVM_ t1_j0ea3rz wrote on December 16, 2022 at 12:30 AM

It's a force multiplier like fire or iron or the internet.

The ability to do almost all the modern internet "human typing on a computer" jobs we do, with a 10x or 100x speed-boost is going to have a massive impact on society.