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Freevoulous t1_j0tu5ny wrote

AGI? As in General Intelligence? No chance.

2045 is the most optmistic, if we somehow achieve stellar progress in hardware first.

Narrow AI, deep learning and ubiquitous LAI?

Yeah, I expect it to be all over the place in 3 years.

The thing is, there is no linnear progress from LAI to AGI. The difference is like between a fast horse and a spacecraft: you cannot breed a horse fast enough to ride it to Mars. At best you can use horses to pull matterials needed for your spacecraft, and in the same vein, you can use LAI to do some of the drudgework needed to code true AGI and build the necessary hardware.

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Ace_Snowlight OP t1_j0tvrff wrote

The thing is, we will barely just be pushing buttons in a sense... it will learn on it's own.

One could argue that we already have at least a very weak form of superficial AGI. However, what it's allowing us to do is the important thing here.

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We will be just the wood and the spark, the rest of machine will run on it's own towards achieving AGI, if that weren't the case, I wouldn't make this prediction at all.

It will do the effortful insight giving by processing tremendous data that would take us lifetimes and problem-solving, we can help it here and there with human reasoning and natural ingenuity... and literal wonders occur.

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visarga t1_j0u0fag wrote

> it will learn on it's own.

For example, in any scientific field from time to time "literature review" papers get published. They cover everything relevant to a specific topic, trying to offer a quick overview with jumping points. We can ask GPT-3 to summarise and write review papers automatically.

We can also think of Wikipedia - 5 million topics, each one has its own article. We could use GPT-3 to write one article for each scientific concept, no matter how obscure, one review for each book, one article about each character in any book, and so on. We could have 1 trillion articles extracting all the known things. Then we'd have AI analyse these topics for contradictions, which comes naturally when you put together all the known information about a topic.

This would be a kind of wikiGPT, a model that learns all the facts from a generated corpus of reviews. It only costs electricity to make.

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