Thats a tough question. There is still too much to solve to say that AGI will come next year. Scaling current models isnt enough to achieve general intelligence, there are many aspects we still lack like awarness, inner dialouge, desires, plans and all that stuff. Machine emotional intelligence is a topic no one really talking about and is a important part of overall intelligence.

Currently I think thst scaling up models will bring astonishing glimpse of what AI can be, models that are hundreds times better than human but in narrow way. Then solving obstacles in the way, 10 years at least untill AGI arrives.