Dr_Singularity OP t1_j0wttt9 wrote on December 20, 2022 at 12:25 AM

Reply to comment by ihateshadylandlords in Printing atom by atom: Lab explores nanoscale 3D printing by Dr_Singularity

2020's - 70%

2030's - 93%+

This may seem insane to many, but my reasoning for why we can have such advanced tech so quickly is simple. We will be building 10 000's to 100 000's of narrow super AI's. In late 2020's there probably will be such net designed and fine tuned just to control the position of atoms during assembly process(I posted such net here few days ago, but what I mean is net able to control assembly process of something large like car, not just few tens of atoms), other nets to take care of real time quality check during "printing" on this atomic scale, ultra complicated patterns for macro scale things, atom by atom will also be designed and imagined by AI. And all these nets will have trillions to quadrillions(or more) of parameters.

This is assuming super AI won't emerge during the next 7 years.

What I would print...in post scarcity world, obviously our culture will change drastically. People will also change. We adapt and are getting used to new advanced tech very quickly. I don't think I will be into printing stuff I don't really need like cars, tons of gadgets. We could exprience all of this in ultrarealistic VR.

I would probably print stuff that can keep me in shape, great and diverse food, things that will be necessary to keep me in good health(regeneration pills or liquids), basic necessities like some 2030's era toothbrushes, soap (if we will still use them).

Ocasionally some nice things which I can give as a gift to friends and family.

If tech will be so advanced that we will be able to survive even accidents in space, I can print some small spacecraft and travel around our Solar System(if law will allow for such thing).

But more likely I will connect with like minded people via future version of internet and we will "Crowdfund" larger more ambitious projects which will need large, industrial scale printers, not small garage versions for personal use.

So let's say 200 000 people will get together to create a project to for example build some cool, large scale undewater city or large artifical city/hotel in space, or huge telescope. Stuff like that.

Again, for many it may sound like 2100's tech, but ultra advanced narrow AI's will accelerate our progress at least 1000 fold. More likely billion fold or more. New materials, new, powerful compact propulsion systems etc. It can all start and be ready by the end of this decade.

turnip_burrito t1_j0x41df wrote on December 20, 2022 at 1:42 AM

You're right, I don't believe it and it does sound dubious, insane, and more like 2100s tech, or at least post-2050. Where will all that data needed to train the AI come from? The specialized equipment? This kind of tech doesn't even seem like it is on the horizon. It's technically possible, I guess

ihateshadylandlords t1_j0x67b7 wrote on December 20, 2022 at 1:58 AM

Great, I appreciate your response.

TheSecretAgenda t1_j0xxf31 wrote on December 20, 2022 at 5:52 AM

Next century for a practical application. They may exist this century but, be very slow and limited. I imagine they will require vast amounts of energy. Unless we crack fusion that isn't going to happen.

agonypants t1_j1158n1 wrote on December 20, 2022 at 10:23 PM

I hope you're right. I definitely think you're right in the sense that AI is going to be required to develop molecular scale machinery. The only way your timeline works though is if companies that develop and control the AI begin training on them as soon as possible. Unfortunately, I don't know for certain whether or not these AI companies share this goal.

One company that does give me some hope in that regard is DeepMind. While I don't think Demis Hassabis would come right out and say it, I think this is probably his goal and that of Page and Brin. The AlphaFold project seems to be a good start toward that goal. If you're able to make predictions about how amino acid chains will self-fold and/or assemble into proteins, you're at least part-way toward making molecular scale machine parts.

IF DeepMind begins work on this right away, we may get the molecular scale assemblers of my dreams in my lifetime. Fingers crossed.