I think you're inserting some of your personal hopes for GPT4 into much of what Sam has said, instead of relaying what he actually said of GPT4. He wants these characteristics for models in general.

I dont think so. Quoting Sam himself in the iterview: we make a prediction in areas on wich research been already done and scaling laws applied. Either it'll be GPT 4 or GPT 4.5, less likely GPTA5 - It'll hapen. Obviously they intent to integrate all the work they done on Dalle 2 and Codexand ChatGPT in one big model that actually works. Its inevitable.

Yes. It's obvious a lot of those were aspirational statements unrelated to any existing models.

“Not having children” yeah I’m sure it’s their choice, definitely.

revealed?

So much bullshit. Being overly optimistic is just as stupid as refusing to see what is happening. These algos are tools. Just like the calculator didn’t destroy math, (on the contrary), GPT won’t destroy [insert what your want], (on the contrary.)

I don’t understand the comment about not having children. If they think AI is going to destroy the world why are they working so hard on it?

To those who can connect the threads - yes. Basicly everything that been said there, besides new Language Model architecture is said not by me but by Sam itself in interview for the next few years. (When he was asked for next 5 years he said it dont predictable) So GPT 4 in a next year or tw - is most likely condidate. Also he mentions that only a few companys will be able to creat a big Revolutioary AI's that buisnesess then finetune. He most likely talks about Big Multimodal Model human level Chat (Hence GPT4)

He says some people decide to have a lot of children (as he wants to do) and some don't want to have any. Both groups have different preferences and think differently about the changes due to AGI.

Why quoting CEO of must disruptive AI company about the next max 5 years is overly optimistic ?

Listen to the interview. Context is about possibilites that AGI opens

Because asking ceos for predictions about their own idea is a recipe for disaster. Self driving cars should be a reality, yet they struggle even in the simplest environment. Life is not as easy as a PowerPoint presentation.

yet thers worldwide buzz about ChatGPT that can code and more general than ever and Dalle 2 that can draw, that no one predicted in 2020, not to mention 2019. There is obvouls trend its not overlyoptimistic it what it is. This year alone was wild for AI. For now no signs of winter.

So when he's stated about ChatBot that actually works and month after we got ChatGPT wich kinda works but not exactly. Obviously there no relations to any model of course. Then there will be GPT4 that just works. Wich where its all going. Or do you think we'll stuck in LM development on GPT3 lvl forever ?

I remember watching this interview and he wasn't specifically talking about GPT4, but just AI progress in general. But I think without a doubt we will see proto-AGI in 2023, or at least an AI model that is so freakishly capable it will be obvious to everyone that AI will change everything. I agree with you that this is an important decade for humanity, and I personally think we will enter a new era of Hope. The hope that everything can be solved with the help of AI. Maybe it's over-optimistic, but I genuinely think this is THE turning point for our species.