Submitted by natepriv22 t3_zj9j7o in singularity
Rumianti6 t1_izukq5m wrote
Reply to comment by Sashinii in Just today someone posted a Twitter thread about Nuclear Fusion... by natepriv22
You actually believe in the myth of exponential progression? The truth is that technological progression is linear and might have some faster occasional bumps in progress.
ASI in 2030 is just ridiculous, it is almost 2023. Not even a decade away. Someone really needs to do their research.
SamGanji t1_izum39c wrote
You think the progression from the beginning of the 20th century to where we are now is not exponential in the scope of human history? That's the definition of exponential.
Apollo24_ t1_izuv39l wrote
It's not even just about the 20th century or about humans, it's the entire history of the universe.
13.8 billion years ago - the big bang
4.5 billion years ago - earth was formed
3.5 billion years ago - cellular life emerges
2.1 billion years ago - multicellular life emerges
500 million years ago - cambrian explosion
178 million years ago - first mammals appear
55 million years ago - first primates appear
1.5 million years ago - homo habilis
200 thousand years ago - homo sapiens
70 thousand years ago - cognitive revolution
12 thousand years ago - neolithic revolution
500 years ago - scientific revolution
200 years ago - first industrial revolution
100 years ago - second industrial revolution
50 years ago - third indusrial revolution
Next up - fourth industrial revolution (AI revolution)
Sashinii t1_izun14e wrote
There are graphs showing that exponential growth is real; Ray Kurzweil shows them in his books and presentations.
I've been thinking about compiling all of those graphs into a thread just so the information is readily available, so I should stop being lazy and make that thread.
AsuhoChinami t1_izusoy0 wrote
Rumianiti6 is a fucking moron. My block list is becoming so long thanks to the idiots on this sub.
Shelfrock77 t1_izuvb2i wrote
Ask the World Economci Forum about exponential progress. They literally talk about what they are going to do for the “4th industrial revolution” aka the singularity.
Rumianti6 t1_izwizi8 wrote
Wait, aren't you the local joke of this subreddit? Nothing you say is anywhere near logical or true. There will be a 4th industrial revolution but it will not be the singularity.
Yoshbyte t1_izuz26t wrote
Technology is exponential. Every major breakthrough is a period following core inventions. The steam engine is a super obvious example but there are tons, you can point at things like calculus and see the insane speed of in specifically linked areas also
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