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SurroundSwimming3494 t1_j24tglj wrote

Reply to comment by Foundation12a in For those of you who expect AI progress to slow next year: by Foundation12a

We absolutely did not make more progress in AI from Jan-May of 2022 than in all the many decades prior. This is an insane case of recency bias.

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Foundation12a OP t1_j24xxm9 wrote

AI models are not progressing at the rate of smart phones they are progressing at much greater pace than that yet to read the more conservative opinions on their progress you'd assume that AI developments were made at timeframes that would be equal to say home video game consoles being released. Things that would require decades of progress in other fields occur within weeks or months in the field of AI development.

Imagine showing Dalle-2's image generation to someone in 2014. Imagine trying to explain what Google Pathways can achieve to someone who had only used Cleverbot before. The gulf is staggering and the rate of progress in 2022 eclipses that of any previous year outright in the history of the entire field of AI development and all of that existed in May.

In the first week of June we had:

https://sites.google.com/view/multi-game-transformers

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-30761-2

https://techxplore.com/news/2022-06-artificial-skin-robots.html

Then later in that month there would be:

https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/955133

https://cajundiscordian.medium.com/is-lamda-sentient-an-interview-ea64d916d917

https://twitter.com/i/status/1536378529415315458

https://gweb-research-parti.web.app/parti_paper.pdf

https://techxplore.com/news/2022-06-deep-framework-pose-robotic-arms.html

AI generated podcasts: https://lexman.rocks/

AI learned how to play Minecraft: https://www.techradar.com/news/ai-can-now-play-minecraft-just-as-well-as-you-heres-why-that-matters

Then GODEL:

https://www.marktechpost.com/2022/06/25/microsoft-ai-researchers-open-source-godel-a-large-scale-pre-trained-language-model-for-dialog/

A language model capable of solving mathematical questions using step-by-step natural language reasoning combining scale, data and others dramatically improves performance on the STEM benchmarks MATH and MMLU-STEM. https://ai.googleblog.com/2022/06/minerva-solving-quantitative-reasoning.html

https://techxplore.com/news/2022-06-fake-robots-ropes-faster.html

And that was only up to the end of June.

Do not take these sources for it either Jack Clark sums it up well:

https://twitter.com/jackclarkSF/status/1542715805657210881?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1542715805657210881%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

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SurroundSwimming3494 t1_j24yisp wrote

>the rate of progress in 2022 eclipses that of any previous year outright in the history of the entire field of AI development

Perhaps, but you said in the previous comment that it eclipsed every single previous year combined, if I'm not mistaken. That's why I gave the answer that I gave.

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Foundation12a OP t1_j24zcek wrote

There has been exponentially more progress each and every year, it's exponential growth not linear which is why based solely on what was achieved by June let alone after it puts 2022 in a league of it's own when it comes to AI advances.

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Ne_Nel t1_j27uk24 wrote

I saw a chart of standard AI vs New method (arrived 2018). Old methods 8x/2year. New method 240x/2year. Maybe isn’t such a crazy statement.

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Plus-Recording-8370 t1_j2886dh wrote

One important thing to note is that ai progress isn't yet bottlenecked by companies trying to regulate the market. Like with smartphones and consoles.while technologically it might be possible, SONY can't release a new playstation every month, because it wouldn't make any sense to do so.

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CypherLH t1_j26kj86 wrote

One could argue that we DID see more progress in 2022 than in the previous 10 years IF you just consider the subjective capabilities/functions added in 2022 that literally didn't exist previously. Nothing remotely close to Dalle 2 existed prior to 2022, and we now have multiple rapidly improving image generation models alongside Dalle 2. Same for large language models, GPT "3.5" is just a massive improvement over anything previously publicly available, including previous GPT-3 releases. chatGPT is just a further evolution on that "GPT-3.5" line of LLM's.

I get that these new subjective capabilities came as a result of just iterative improvements on develops ongoing since 2011/2012...but again if you just look at subjective capabilities....2022 saw MASSIVE gains.

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shmoculus t1_j28yfux wrote

I kind of see what you are getting at, and it could be the case with exponential improvements in methods/research that we see more discoveries in one year than all the previous at some point but I don't think we're there yet.

The progression has been linear in my view:

  1. Efficient image classification (CNNs)

  2. object detection / segmentation / pix2pix / basic img2text models (RCNNs, Unet, GANs)

  3. Deep reinforcement learning (DQN, PPO, MCTS)

  4. Attention networks (transformers and language modelling)

  5. Basic question / answer and reasoning models

  6. Low quality txt2img models (e.g. DALL-E 1)

  7. High quality txt2img models (e.g. DALL-E 2, stable diffusion)

  8. Multimodal modals (image understading etc) <- we are here

  9. Already happening video2video models, text2mesh / point cloud

  10. Expect low, then high quality multimodal generation models e.g. txt2video + music

  11. Expect improved text understanding, general chat behaviour, ie large step ups in chatbot usefulness inclution ability to take actions (this part is already underway)

  12. Expect some kind of attention based method for reading and writing to storage (i.e memory) and possibly online learning / continuous improvement

13 . More incrementally interesting stuff :)

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CypherLH t1_j2b0ncx wrote

"Linear" but consider how rapidly the last half of your points progressed! It took nearly a decade to go from step 1 to step 6. In then took 18 months to go from step 6 to step 9, and probably less than another 12 months to get to step 11 based on current rates of progress.

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shmoculus t1_j2byyzm wrote

It's going to be an interesting decade for sure :)

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