It is hard to say. What we have seen of AI so far indicates to me that it can't fully replace people (outside certain roles that are overly focused on one task) but it will lead to a big increase in productivity for individuals.

The practical impact of that would seem to me to be that competition will be more fierce between marketing agencies and employees within them. But businesses will still need marketing and from what I can see of AI currently it is not well-suited to replace all the roles a skilled digital marketer will provide for a business:

• Marketing Plan
• Market research
• Assist on sculpting the campaign
• Identifying who to target with the campaign
• etc

The general way I am thinking of AI atm (at least what we have seen) is that it is exceptionally good at certain very specific tasks but struggles to change context. So it can be amazing at certain games/writing things/folding proteins/creating images, but can't piece any of these individual tasks into something that creates full value. Even some of the things it seems best at like generating images, the images still likely need a minor touch-up by a real artist depending on what it is being used for (although this may change especially as if you are after something like a book cover an AI can create something an order of magnitude more cheaply than an artist).

For me, the real question is what exactly is GPT-4 going to be able to do. Rumours say it has 500x more parameters than GPT-3. If we assume this is true (which I have no hard verification on and it could easily be false) what would it mean exactly? Is 500x more parameters equal to 500x as powerful? Or does it mean something else?

Apparently GPT-4 should be with us by the end of February so my plan is basically to keep going exactly as I was in terms of work etc until then and then reassess.