Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments

PoliteThaiBeep t1_j4gd1ho wrote

Before chatGPT I expected AGI to arrive between 2025 -2040

Now I still expect AGI to arrive at any time from 2025 to 2040

But percentages changed. Like in 2017 I thought maybe 1% AGI would arrive in 2025. Today it feels like 10-20% AGI would arrive in 2025.

Also before I thought 2040 AGI will arrive with around 50% chance. Today it's more like 90%.

2

oddlyspecificnumber7 OP t1_j4gqr9k wrote

Right now models seem to be getting much better when they are scaled up. They are also currently pretty dang cheap compared to any kind of real industrial infrastructure. Single and double digit millions is nothing to governments and corporations like Google. Even without architecture improvements, what does a $10 billion AI look like?

So I'd honestly not be that shocked if we have a "universal knowledge worker" type service by 2025 that offers you an "employee" with the reasoning ability of an average undergraduate but with the knowledge base of the whole internet.

1