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Vehks t1_j2mgb2y wrote

>We are decades and decades away...

Yes this sub is very much overly optimistic thus I am wary of many of the claims made here, but I'm also wary of people who throw up baseless nonsense like this as well.

Considering that most people, this includes experts, cannot come even close to making accurate future predictions past 5 years or so I immediately tune out when people drop the "maybe in a 100 years" or the "decades and decades" spiel.

It's been said that humans can only make reasonable/feasible predictions in a time span of roughly 3 years, with 5 years being generous.

Anything past that is just wild ass guessing and the reason for that is we have no idea what break throughs can suddenly pop up or what technologies come to fruition that prior predictions didn't account for because we had no way of knowing/expected.

There are just too many unknowns past the 3-5 year mark is what my point is, so speaking so matter-of-factly about things that far out is an absurdity.

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AsuhoChinami t1_j2nnp7w wrote

Absolutely. That's self-proclaimed realists and skeptics for you, though - they're nothing if not utterly hard-headed and completely confident in everything they ever say. In their minds, anything skeptical is automatically intelligent. I could say that 40 TB hard drives won't exist until 2800 and they would go "OMG!!!!! So true!!!!! 10/10 post take my upvote"

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