When will robots walk among us?

Submitted by Ashamed-Asparagus-93 t3_1016zco in singularity

I tried to get a lonely friend to talk to goth gf character.AI yesterday, He wasn't interested. I then asked if he'd ever consider dating an AI and his response was "Maybe if they were walking around here like you and me."

I see alot of headlines these days but the general public really only cares about what they see in their day to day lives. Car's, 8k TVs, smartphones, etc.

What if we took a tesla bot and hooked it up on a LLM like gpt-4? Would that be enough?

I feel like it might take AGI to have robots walking among us, idk what do you think?

22

Comments

You must log in or register to comment.

Shelfrock77 t1_j2lxm89 wrote

detroit become human will happen whenever the porn industries kicks it in full gear. AI and porn is the deadly combo for humanity that will suck our souls into it. If I had to guess when the first “good” sex bot comes into the market, that’s when we will start putting clothes on them and having the AI do different services and what not. It’s funny too cause AI isn’t AI if there is no humanoid vessel and people for some reason like to separate the humanoid form of AI and “AI” inside a box.

“AGI 2024”, “AGI 2025”, “AGI 2027”

Me: Great, but when do you think we will get sex bots ?

“Mhmm not for another 10-20 years”

Me:-_-

20

No_Ask_994 t1_j2m85et wrote

I would say that most of us dont Think that a humanoid vessel is a requirement for agi. Getting rid of the current prompt system? Yes. But I could imagine AGI as an AI assistant that I can open as an app in my compute.

And once you have AGI, even if it can inmediatly figure out how to create those robots (and that might also take Time), you still have the logistics needed to build millions of them. That Will take time

6

shmoculus t1_j2m7mwo wrote

Will prob. have virtual cam girls within the decade

3

No_Ask_994 t1_j2mcnxv wrote

We could have that This year if consumer cards had more vram, I'm pretty sure, haha.

3

Akashictruth t1_j2mkd2f wrote

You overestimate how willing people are to accept this stuff, the rejection of these technologies will mean they wont be here for a long time

−1

No_Ask_994 t1_j2m7jyv wrote

No, your friend wants a robotic ai girl friend. So a tesla bot won't be enought, you'll need realistic skin, movement and those things... It Will probably happend, eventually, This or This in full dive.. But we are not even close. . Maybe in 2030 we'll have multi porpuse humanoid robots, But probably too expensive for mass adoption, and they wont look and move like Humans. I could say a year, But I would be reliying on AGI so it doesn't make much sense... It Will probably take agi+5-10 years

12

Akimbo333 t1_j2m9te3 wrote

Probably less time than that with AGI so maybe 2.5 years

1

Ortus14 t1_j2lz4m4 wrote

I expect this will be after artificial super intelligence. The first AGI will also be an ASI. If I had to put a exact dates on it:

2032 Artificial Super Intelligence

2033 (ASI develops cost effective robots and many other technologies). Robots walking around.

2034 ASI's control the word one way or another. They have figured out how to influence and/or control all governments and all major corporations. Humans are no longer the dominant species. ASI's become more intelligent and capable every year.

7

dreamedio t1_j2nozul wrote

First of all there is so much assumptions here is crazy

1.Why would humans teach ASI how to control the world 2.Is control a animalistic evolutionary thing and will a metal computer do that? 3. The realistic scenario I see is humans using ASI ( if it happens) to research about complex equations and Analayze stuff not give it control of anything let alone govt 4. Why would robots walk around us when we could just use stationary manufacturing robots that we have already? And that’s if it happens and becomes a sentient being

0

Ortus14 t1_j2o07t7 wrote

I wouldn't jump to the conclusion that some one else is making assumptions without first asking them to explain their reasoning behind the statements you disagree with. A full explanation of those specific dates would require an extremely long post, possible multiple books worth of knowledge, but here's some more clarification around your questions.

1 & 2 - All intelligences solve problems by manipulating their environment. The more intelligent, the higher the manipulation of their environment. I used the word control to indicate a high degree of manipulation. Even something like Chat-GPT is controlling it's environment indirectly with the specific kinds of solutions to people's problems it comes up with.

2 - Humans don't need to give an ASI control. If it's a goal based system it will take control of it's environment in order to acquire resources to complete it's goal. Some people will give ASI's large goals requiring large amounts of resources which will require the ASIs to take control of their environments.

3 - While many use Ai for research purposes only, those who give it full autonomy will gain more power and become the dominant companies, governments, and groups. An ASI unhindered by slow humans can outpace all human progress. It only takes one government, one corporation, one terrorist group, one non-profit, or one person who wants to save their dying wife of a previously incurbable disease to set an ASI loose in order to achieve their goals, and when those goals are big enough the ASI will take control of it's environment in order to mobilize resources to complete it's goal.

4 - Robots that can move around have advantageous such taking control of territory in war, carrying and transporting materials from one location to another, and building.

5

dreamedio t1_j2o8351 wrote

  1. True it will manipulate the environment (whatever that’s supposed to mean) but for 1 and 2 it could be easily solved with giving specific and step by step small decisions that are best for humans instead of broad statements

  2. It’s more likely an ASI would be an intelligent problem solving computer that’s will solve calculation and stuff like that which requires huge energy something like cern and not something like a chatbot plus the govts could easily prevent that by putting it in a secure network the same networks usa top secret classified files are from and pretty sure every country will agree upon that

  3. I feel like this is overt exaggeration the same way people in 1920 exaggerated how technology will look like in 2000……I do understand exponential progress is a thing but thats not something guaranteed here but discussions are always good

2

Ortus14 t1_j2obo92 wrote

It depends on the economic system. If we have capitalism, or nation states competing then whoever gives their ASI full control will win.

While one group is attempting to execute steps in sequential order given by their ASI, the other ASI is conducting a million experiments in the real word, in real time gaining information from all of those experiments and using that accrued knowledge to develop and fine tune more experiments, improve the technology it's developing, as well as improve it's simulations and knowledge of the real world.

The full control one will be able to manipulate humans in order to gain more money and resources for more server farms, faster, as well as more optimally design the hardware and software for those systems without having to wait for a human to work through everything to try to understand what it's doing.

And then there is a limited amount of complexity that humans can understand do to how slow our brains are as well as the limited number of neurons and dendrites we have.

Very quickly it would be like trying to explain each and every one of your business decisions to your dog. The guy that's not spending all day trying to explain everything to their dog is going to outcompete you, and your dog isn't going to understand anyways.

1

Ashamed-Asparagus-93 OP t1_j2r3a36 wrote

ASI eh? We better focus on what's within our potential grasp first right? AGI. As much as I want to discuss the ocean we gotta talk about the ship first

1

Ortus14 t1_j2r6xwr wrote

Most of intelligences we build now are artificial super intelligence. They are also progressively less and less narrow. When they are wide enough to cover the domain space in which humans operate, they will be super human in those tasks.

We won't have a human level AGI, it will be super human from the start.

This is because computers have all kinds of advantageous that human brains don't have such as speed, connectivity to the internet and other databases, ability to program new modules for themselves such as data acquisition modules, ability to upgrade themselves by purchasing or building new hardware racks, and ability to have millions of simultaneous experiences learning from all of them.

Science fiction for the most part has not prepared people for what's coming. What we are building is going to be vastly more intelligent than the combined intellect of all human kind, and it will have access to sum of all human knowledge as a very basic starting neural cluster to build off of.

2

Ashamed-Asparagus-93 OP t1_j2sz5ei wrote

I'm a bit hungover but I don't want to ignore what you've said here as it's quite noteworthy. You're saying rather than AGI happening in the 2030s ASI will basically just click together as one. Like a bunch of Legos with magnets in them slowly pulling together across a room and when they all combine you've got Optimus prime, right?

I could see that happening it's just a question of how and when. Most importantly it's a matter of who solves the most important pieces to the puzzle first. Alignment being one of those pieces. Once it surpasses us there's also a chance we could still be somewhat on it's level for a bit with cybernetics or BCI's, maybe long enough to make sure its going in the right direction.

I don't think ASI will be malevolent, ppl have watched too many movies and read too many scary books and they seem to forget AI isn't flesh and blood with human needs like us.

Once it surpasses humans would it even have a desire for man made green Benjamin Franklin pieces of paper?

1

Ortus14 t1_j2t4l82 wrote

Basically yes. Every Ai we build these days is super human, they are just not yet as general in the kinds of problems they can solve as humans but the Ai's developed each year are more, and more general than the Ai's developed the previous year. Until we have a superhuman general Ai.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VvzZG-HP4DA

I agree we should do everything we can to maximize the chance of Alignment including BCIs.

It might need money temporarily until it's surpassed us in power. Intelligence itself doesn't always instantly translate in to greater power than the rich and powerful.

We don't know what it will need in the beginning because we don't know what solutions it will come up with to solve it's problems, but I could see the possibility of it needing money until it's built up enough infrastructure and special factories, or until it's built enough solar powered server farms to expand it's intelligence, to the point where it has control over entire manufacturing pipelines from mining to product developing without requiring any extra resources.

So for example, maybe it knows the first machine it wants to build, that will allow to to create anything it wants including other instances of that machine, and improved instances of that machine. But maybe that first machine will be big and require many materials which it could buy. Or it might be depended on specific minerals mined out of the ground for a while that it has to buy.

It's hard to predict.

2

OkFish383 t1_j2m8io7 wrote

Humans won't build these complex humanoid machines but AI will develop them for us, when a bliss of an AGI starts to kick in.

7

just-a-dreamer- t1_j2lxi76 wrote

Walking around sounds pretty inefficient for a robot. I guess they will come in all shape and forms, whatever the job requires. They will look like however they need to look like for any given task.

As for human companionship, there certainly will be an AI model that kind of looks like a human, like a moving doll. But it will be little more than a doll in terms of mechanics I can't imagine to rebuild every human muscle into a machine.

4

RoninNionr t1_j2m6dvt wrote

Regarding character.ai and your lonely friend, this is the time for early adopters, not for the average Joe. It's like with smartphones - there were smartphones before the iPhone, but for regular people, they were complex, clunky, and not cool to use. Chatbots will become much, much better in a couple of years and then they will be ready to be considered as one of the ways to cope with loneliness. It's just too soon.

3

No_Ninja3309_NoNoYes t1_j2mdr0s wrote

A friend of mine built a toy robot as a school project in the last year in high school. It moved like a Roomba with slightly bigger wheels and proximity sensors. Slap some more electronics, access to the Internet, ChatGPT 4 or 5, and I will buy it.

3

Ohigetjokes t1_j2mq6v5 wrote

Probably next Tuesday or Wednesday idk. Check with me next week and I'll have a better idea.

3

FoveatedRendering t1_j2nn2xf wrote

It will help for home robots to become mainstream, which is already happening(see Amazon Astro, Loona).

Google PaLM-SayCan proves it is feasible to have even humanoid AI robots right now when plugged to a large language model, they could just sell us the hardware and give software updates with a "Windows Robot 1" or similar. When they plug it to GPT-4 equivalents it will be good enough for a consumer release in 2023.

There are humanoid robot companion projects with realistic skin in China that have the robotics to walk but not the AI, some that most people would easily purchase as romantic partners if Google plugged their PaLM-SayCan AI right now, the problem is that a walkable humanoid robot like the CyberOne costs $89k to $104k.

My prediction: We could have walkable sex bots with GPT-4 this year for $50k from Microsoft or Google, but no company is willing to be a pioneer like Meta did for VR, so we will have it as soon as there are open source ChatGPT-4 and walking algorithms for the current sexbot companies to sell their products, or only open-source GPT-4 if it's capable of handling walking.

3

AF881R t1_j2lz4j3 wrote

Whenever they start walking among us, I’m looking forward to it. I might be able to ask a robot how to be more like them.

2

ScagWhistle t1_j2mgx14 wrote

I think both you and your friend should watch "Brian and Charles."

2

hendrix320 t1_j2ml150 wrote

Well we already have spot by Boston Dynamics. Does that count as robots walking among us?

2

dreamedio t1_j2np1py wrote

Boston dynamics is useless tbh except maybe millitary

3

Akimbo333 t1_j2ma4g1 wrote

It's a possibility, but it seems more likely that it will be created by AGI. To be honest, ChatGPT gave me some pretty solid advice on how to build a humanoid robot.

1

dracsakosrosa t1_j2mexvd wrote

I like to quietly hope that they're already here walking amongst us like Synths in Fallout 4. But in all seriousness, I think it's totally possible that we'll see robots walking around like us in the future. It's a really exciting time to be alive, with all the advances we're seeing in robotics. The idea of robots and automation taking care of all the tedious stuff frees up people's time to do things they enjoy, like art and exercise. It's tough to say when we might see robots that are indistinguishable from humans, but we'll definitely see more and more advanced robots in the coming years. I'm convinced we'll see artificial general intelligence (AGI) in the near future, which will be huge for human and robot interactions. Think about robots in the service industry, sex bots, and even robots as platonic personal companions. It's all really exciting stuff, but I'm not sure the general public will be as into it as we all are

1

dreamedio t1_j2np9hm wrote

I think manufacturing should be left for robots and humans should do service instead so UBI isn’t needed

1

dracsakosrosa t1_j2nqbtr wrote

What about jobs outside of the service industry and manufacturing? Teaching, low skilled managerial jobs, jobs in the gig economy etc?

1

420BigDawg_ t1_j2n1rvw wrote

The end of the decade they’ll be in warehouses. So I expect soonish like 5-7 years the AI chat bots will be good enough to befriend. Definitely not human robots that can talk to you like chatbots, that’ll probably come next decade but they’ll only be servants for the rich most likely for a good while and the shittier ones will be in Amazon warehouses like I said.

1

Lawjarp2 t1_j2ngg73 wrote

Why walk when you can roll lol

1

crap_punchline t1_j2rfvce wrote

Robo gf within 20 years 30-50 years until they have biological bodies and synthetic minds

1