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GayHitIer t1_j69qvvx wrote

S curves, quick progress then maturity and then a new paradigm, we are at the start of a new s curve.

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AsuhoChinami t1_j69ri9c wrote

Right. This isn't anything new. The 1980s probably had more technological growth than the 1970s, for example.

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Nearby_Personality55 t1_j6bieyj wrote

Web 3.0 and AI are reminding me a bit of the Wild West tech environment of the 80s, as someone who was around during the 80s

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Ortus14 t1_j6apflo wrote

For clarity it's cascading S-curves. S-curves, on top of S-curves, on-top of S-curves, on top of the big daddy S-curve which started with the big bang and complexity began increasing with the formation of elements etc.

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questionasker577 OP t1_j69u310 wrote

Does AGI necessarily abide by an S-curve given how unique it is relative to other technologies? I’m struggling to think through this

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GayHitIer t1_j69ukyk wrote

Higher s curves.

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questionasker577 OP t1_j69uzmg wrote

What does that mean?

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GayHitIer t1_j69xhbh wrote

Exponential bigger advancements, AGI will be a huge S curve maybe so big it will just look like a line.

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questionasker577 OP t1_j69xxlr wrote

So an exponential growth curve rather than an S-curve?

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Hotchillipeppa t1_j69yw79 wrote

It might still technically be an "s curve" but the curve up with ai will be so high that the s shouldnt come down for a long while.

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Good-AI t1_j6dzdrk wrote

It might be a J curve. The first and the last one.

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GayHitIer t1_j69yran wrote

Combination of the two. But still s curves.

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Nmanga90 t1_j6b2rkf wrote

Definitely an S curve still. Looking back at progress, it has been very, very slow until now. Basically the invention of the transformer changed everything

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Ortus14 t1_j6apv1z wrote

All technology abides by S-curves, all life (including Ai), and all evolution.

In evolution the start of a new S-curve is called punctuated equilibrium.

In computational theory it has to do with breaking out of "local maximum". In game theory it may be referred to as breaking out of a "equilibrium".

It's important to note that these are all cascading S-curves. That is to say, smaller S-curves on-top of larger S-curves, which themselves are on top of larger S-curves. If you ever think progress is slowing down, zoom out.

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Prayers4Wuhan t1_j6dg0dd wrote

This is the right answer and if anyone is interested it’s also why index investing works.

The entire economy does not grow exponentially with every company benefiting. Many companies fail and go to zero.

With buying the whole market you don’t have to guess who will fail or where the next S curve will come from.

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