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r0cket-b0i t1_j6c316u wrote

Why did 2003 to 2013 feel like more progress - because of OP's lens / myopic view / confirmation bias.

Lets see the facts and debunk it:

  1. Invention of an iPhone - randomly pick any PDA, say Cassiopeia A-10 that was released in 1997! thats 6 years before 2003, to people who owned it an Iphone was just "another evolution" and for longest time "not a real smartphone" because nokia was able to run Java apps one could install without a need for an app store. - what does it mean, iPhone nailed UX and amplified with a power of Brand and Marketing, the revolution started far before thought.
  2. Social media revolution... ICQ gained wide spread popularity in 1998....
  3. Have been happening every year since video games existed, from 3dfx voodoo cards to real time shadows, there were no exact slow down or acceleration - its pretty much an compound growth graph.
  4. Video streaming? Quicktime or first video calls ? again broadband speeds increase similarly to video game graphics this trend was not different if you zoom out from 2003 or 2013.)
  5. you can see for yourself that there is minor difference with mostly only North America getting to a close to maximum penetration.

This is very clearly a very narrow, consumer electronics and experience focused view, I am openly criticizing it not because I want to hype the short singularity timelines but simply because it is not factual, its cherry picked, apples vs oranges + industry focused bias derived.

- 2013 to 2023 things that actually happened from Crispr, to us having CPUs fabricated on five to ten times smaller nanometer scale vs those in 2013 are a massive progress.

- 2016 AI wins at GO - this felt like humans landing on the moon or going to space for the first time.

- see number of records in Fusion energy development can make a very long list of things that are evolutionary (like iPhone) but also revolutionary an not expected (like Ai progress, Fusion, etc) for every decade and if anything there is acceleration of progress not other way around.

I would love to be proven wrong but in a constructive manner not in biased tunnel-vision way lol ;-)