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Vehks t1_j5khtdv wrote

When it comes to predictions-

Generally anyone who speaks so matter-of-fact about things on a timeline greater than 5 years can be safely ignored.

I've mentioned this before, but its said that future predictions can only be reasonably extrapolated on a timeline of roughly 3 years with 5 years allowing for some leeway, but past that there are simply too many unknowns/variables to extrapolate upon that one is just guessing at that point.

What's interesting is this applies to both laymen and experts, as even educated guessing is still guessing.

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sticky_symbols t1_j5kqu80 wrote

You can definitely predict some things outside of five years with good accuracy. Look at Moore's Law. That's way more accurate than predictions need to be to be useful. Sure if nukes were exchanged all bets are off, but outside of that I just disagree with your statement. For instance: will China's gender imbalance cause them trouble in ten years? It almost certainly will.

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