gay_manta_ray t1_j4ylmqk wrote
Reply to comment by blueSGL in OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman won't tell you when they reach AGI, and they're closer than he wants to let on: A procrastinator's deep dive by Magicdinmyasshole
i've always been puzzled by altman confidently stating that energy costs will decrease to zero at some point in the near future, because it doesn't make a whole lot of sense given the massive amount of resources and general maintenance something like a renewable grid would require. maybe this is why he keeps saying that.
blueSGL t1_j4yoiks wrote
I wonder just how vast the amount of problems is, that can be suddenly fixed because the spec now includes "access to unlimited cheap/free energy"
If this does not outright break it's going to severely dent the
Good/Fast\Cheap triangle.
PoliteThaiBeep t1_j5030gs wrote
Uh, solar farms are already below 2 cents/kWh for 20 year contracts in some places like Chile, wind is below 4 cents/kWh right here in the US, I think it was an Arizona contract.
And they were over 15 cents/kWh just in 2014. To point out to rapid economy of scale happening.
For comparison brand new coal and gas plants are relatively flat and stay at around 6 cents/kWh for modern high tech plant.
But just maintaining already existing coal/gas plants is still making a little bit of sense, but the thing is we're very close to when it doesn't make sense. Building a brand new solar and wind farms will be cheaper than maintaining already working coal/gas plant.
That's where we are. It'll almost completely bottom out in about a decade.
And solar requires zero maintenance, wind does require it, but it's price highlights how little it costs.
Warrior_Runding t1_j50nwjc wrote
To add to this, there are also proposals to converting old, stable mine shafts into gravity batteries. We are coming up to an interesting moment in human development and history.
Artanthos t1_j50pkhw wrote
If your think anything requires zero maintenance your not looking at the larger picture, just one very small piece.
You still have to maintain the entire power grid, pay your employees, replace aging equipment, etc.
GlobusGlobus t1_j51i4vk wrote
He doesn't say energy costs will be zero, he says that marginal electricity costs will go towards zero. It is a very different thing. The base infra structure will always be a big investment. But e.g. solar power plus a very (very) large amount of batteries can lead to very cheap marginal cost.
LickyAsTrips t1_j51x2fe wrote
And he doesn't give an estimated rate of decent. Energy dropping 0.001% over ten years is trending toward zero technically.
I am optimistic though and think in 10 years energy costs will play a much smaller part in total costs.
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