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[deleted] t1_j6iwbrv wrote

[deleted]

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CheesyFriesAreBest1 t1_j6iwxbc wrote

Blockbuster would like to have a word with you

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[deleted] t1_j6ixo3r wrote

[deleted]

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lovesdogsguy t1_j6jf3i5 wrote

I don't think that's the best analogy. We're heading straight towards the vertical side of the exponential growth curve here. I mean, if we're not, then what's this sub for?

We clearly are — either we're already on it, or just about to hit it. There's going to be a deluge of tech / AI advancement over just the next 3 - 5 years. It's not going to replace everyone that quickly though; most companies are very slow to adapt.

I'm in Europe. If you're looking for job security, get a state / government job. I think they'll keep a lot of those jobs around just 'because'.

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monsieurpooh t1_j6lce4v wrote

I'm inclined to agree somewhat; however, we've always been saying that. For 10, 20, 30 years we've been saying "now we're really at the point where it's gonna be vertical." By the way, a fun fact about exponential curves is there is no such thing as "knee of the curve" because everywhere on the curve is the "knee of the curve".

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natepriv22 t1_j6j7g1n wrote

Don't prepare for the future, live in the present

Literally one of the most destructive ideas in history and the present.

Ironically by giving this advice you are more likely to doom someone to job obsolescence...

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Absolute-Nobody0079 t1_j6k90ij wrote

Live in the present is a really botched translation of Buddha's teaching.

It's actually closer to 'be focused and diligent to present.'

See, I hate hippie translators.

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Cryptizard t1_j6jg1rm wrote

We have no way to know what is going to happen, even in the near future. Any job could be replace. Better to study something you are interested in, at least it will be personally fulfilling to you.

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monsieurpooh t1_j6lds65 wrote

It mainly applies to specific situations especially where one might use it as an excuse to not do something you want. In 2018 I was onboarded as the musical composer for a short film. ETA for this film was 2 whole years. At that time we already had VQGAN and GPT-2 (maybe GPT-3 I don't remember) and various AI composers like Jukebox. I was thinking wow by the time we're done we'll have AI-generated TV shows and music already. But we still don't have human-level AI movies/music today, and we finished the short film and it's called Let's Eat on youtube.

In 2021 I was playing with GPT-3 Da Vinci on OpenAI and realized it was possible to make a game like AI Dungeon except have it actually be a game. I was like wow by the time I'm done making this game we'll have AI-generated 3D games. But we don't yet really, and AI Roguelite is now on Steam.

There are now tons of people lamenting their choice of majority in CS or whatever just because some AI can sort of write code. They wish they'd been a plumber or whatever. But we don't actually know yet how much the demand for programmers will downsize, if at all.

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rixtil41 t1_j6jzn27 wrote

I agree somewhat but these things don't come out of nowhere. So you can't know for certain but you can still see hints and clues as it's going to happen.

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RabidHexley t1_j6k3jse wrote

Agreed. Not only because the technology doesn't yet exist. But because once it does it's impossible to accurately predict how it will be adopted and implemented by various industries on wildly unpredictable timelines, and what the actual impact would be once they did.

There's simply far too much to speculate on for any practical advice to be meaningful in this regard.

I think even when people aren't overestimating the rate AI tech will progress, they do overestimate how rapidly its effects will be felt in our actual lives. Once new tech is actually viable there's still significant delays before it's actually implemented, even AI is subject to this. Even if an AGI came out tomorrow, it will still likely be at least a decade before our lives we drastically changed by its development.

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rixtil41 t1_j6k4unn wrote

let's see if your opinion changes in 2029.

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RabidHexley t1_j6k9ko7 wrote

We'll see, I'm not an oracle, but things rarely develop that quickly in the real world. Name a technology that was invented (the point where it became actually viable to use) and didn't have a pretty lengthy turnaround to being actually implemented in widely used products or industries. Many fields may be downsized in the coming decade, but it is impossible to predict the degree.

If anything could be considered a good bet, it's that "menial mental labor" tasks will be phased out first. Typing up/evaluating reports, rote clerical tasks, data entry, etc. These are the types of tasks currently coming AI tech will have the easiest time actually replacing humans for.

Talking specifically about the types of tasks we'd typically want someone highly trained or educated for (since the question is being asked about someone going to college). Not speaking to labor in general.

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