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genshiryoku t1_j643mw8 wrote

I agree in AI models becoming commodities over time as has been seen with Stable Diffusion essentially disrupting the entire business model of paid image generation like Dall-E and Midjourney.

I completely agree with the investment case and burn rate of these AI companies not being worth it. And that just like historically with the industrial revolution. It won't be the AI companies benefiting from the creation of AI it will be the companies that can rapidly scale up their production with the use of AI.

It wasn't steam engine makers that benefited from the industrial revolution. It was factories that could quickly scale up with steam engine providing labor.

It won't be the AI companies benefiting from AI. It will be companies that have lots of intellectual workers that can quickly scale up with AI providing intellectual labor.

I actually expect law firms, medical field, schooling platforms and other almost purely intellectual firms to benefit the most from an economic windfall perspective.

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LesleyFair OP t1_j649679 wrote

Interesting take. Any concrete applications in mind that we could go and start? :)

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itzsnitz t1_j64wpyf wrote

Document / knowledge management.

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levoniust t1_j65n56k wrote

Knowledge management. Arguably one of the better things Google got popular on. The ability to quickly and reliably search for things on the internet.

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ArtemAung t1_j65jiwm wrote

IMO it'll be much more decentralized with lots of smaller companies and individuals benefiting the most.

World tends to swing back and forth between decentralized and heavily centralized order of things. 90-s and early 2000s was decentralized invention explosion. 2010s were when most successful startups capitalized on their success and maximized their potential. But this approach today is hitting significant diminishing returns - hence all the layoffs. It's too centralized, too large, too slow to react.

Right now the world is right after it's peak centralization and swinging right back towards decentralization and rapid change of landscape again like in 90s and 2000s.

You see hundreds of thousands of small startups having millions of ideas on how to do things that are much more capable today because of stagnation brought on by excessive centralization and because technology today require significantly less labor, but more ideas.

And this trend will continue. At least during this decade.

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SoylentRox t1_j64vpu0 wrote

>I agree in AI models becoming commodities over time as has been seen with Stable Diffusion essentially disrupting the entire business model of paid image generation like Dall-E and Midjourney.

Ehhhhhhhhhh

So the basic technology to make an ok model, yes. But it's quite possible that 'machine learning rockstars', especially if they get recursive self improvement to work, will be able to make models that have a 'moat' around them. Even if it's just because it costs 500m to train it and 500m to buy the data.

Then they can sell services that are measurably better than the competition...or hiring humans...

That sounds like a license to print money to me.

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Ok_Homework9290 t1_j66ieo4 wrote

>It will be companies that have lots of intellectual workers that can quickly scale up with AI providing intellectual labor.

>I actually expect law firms, medical field, schooling platforms and other almost purely intellectual firms to benefit the most from an economic windfall perspective.

I agree that AI will benefit those firms that you mentioned, but I don't think that that benefit will come at the expense of widespread automation at those organizations (IF that's what you mean), at least in the short and medium term.

Knowledge work (in general) is a lot more than just crunching numbers, shuffling papers, etc. Anybody who works in a knowledge-based field (or is familiar with a knowledge-based field) knows this.

AI that's capable of fully replacing what a significant amount of knowledge workers do is still pretty far out, IMO, given how much human interaction, task variety/diversity, abstract thinking, precision, etc. is involved in much of knowledge work (not to mention legal hurdles, adoption, etc).

Will some of these jobs dissappear over the next 5-10 years? 100%. There's no point in even denying that, nor is there any point in denying that much of the rest of knowledge work will undoubtedly change over the next time span and even more so after that, but I'm pretty confident we're a ways away from it being totally disrupted by AI.

My 2 cents.

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