Submitted by Yuli-Ban t3_106dzde in singularity
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haha remember when people told me I was CRAZY and HYPER OPTIMISITC for saying it was only months away a few months ago? I do... :)
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I told you so :)
🤯🤯🤯🤯 This got me off guard. Things are getting scarier. Even if the model it's not impressive you already know what happens next, the following week someone releases a better model.
I'm almost positive he meant generate movies eventually and not later this month bc there is no way, even considering the amount of progress AI has made in recent years, that full-blown movies are already possible.
Of course, we'll know later this month, but I'm extremely skeptical, to say the least.
I could certainly see animated movies being ready very soon. Photo realistic live action in a couple years.
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I never said anything about budget, or quality, just that it would be possible.
and it seems It will be... that's a W for me :)
Edit: looks like the reply was deleted...oh well
>I could certainly see animated movies being ready very soon.
Maybe soon but not weeks soon.
I doubt that you can input a prompt and get a movie.
Well, I don't doubt it, I'm sure it's not true. I would be happy if I'm wrong, but I don't think I will.
I'd temper my expectations on this one, especially if they want to generate revenue (this is not going to be a free service, I'd assume).
No surfing the hype wave boys, we'll have great things soon enough !
What makes you think so? And what if it takes several prompts, wouldn't that still be impressive? Also, you must look at the next possible models that will be released by other companies, that's what creates the excitement, not this particular model itself. This event raises significantly the probability of getting public AI movie generators this year.
Exactly. 2023 is going to be wild, I can't even fathom 2024 and beyond.
Credit where credit is due. You called it, and held your ground.
First thing first: Yes, it will be impressive.
Even just text2video is impressive, we are taking this for granted, but 2 years ago suggesting that we would have that would be crazy.
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If we have text2video + continuity (so that you can make a prompt, then make another that merges your first one with the second one to give it some kind of continuity) would be amazing.
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But a full movie from a prompt doesn't make much sense to me, for now.
First, the model will be a video only thing. So, even if it was capable of making a movie, is not something to be used by consumers as entertainment, it's more like a tool. And in a tool you probably want more control.
Even if they could create a movie from a prompt, chances that everything was useful are slim, and the ammount of computation needed would be HUGE. It would be expensive.
People are not gonna pay that for now.
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It's not the time to make a 90 minutes movie with one prompt, I think that it's time to get like, 0-2 minutes... Might be wrong, but I don't think that I will be 88 minutes wrong.
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Anyway, to really get a movie you need like...A very good multimodal AI than can create both the image and the sound, including music and voices, we are very far away from that. (Now, "Very far away" might be just 2 or 3 years, but certainly not this month)
What's the hand situation like for AI animation?
I think you have to look at the parts that go into it. If we don't have image generators that can make hands yet, presumably this can't either. If we don't have text bots that can create a coherent narrative, especially if it's lengthy, this probably can't either. This might include some impressive new tools, but we're just not at the point where you could put in a prompt and get a movie that would be anything but a complete fever dream.
1 day at a time at this point.
Yes, I am aware this model is just about a video without sounds and other elements, but even without those other elements it will be very useful. A lot of animations can be made out of this, for example, many YouTube animators might see this as gold.
When it says movies I don't think it necessarily means 90 minutes at once, I seriously doubt that it will generate a whole movie at once, it might be able to generate 5-15 min animations then you can add them up as you said (which will reduce the compute cost). The one prompt thing won't be a thing (yet) I believe, having to give it several prompts will make the animation more aligned with the users' desires. I don't necessarily agree that it is just a tool, many fun things can be done with this from the average person's perspective. But that's beside the point I'm more interested in what companies like Deepmind, Open AI, google, and others might release when it comes to movie generators this year.
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>A very good multimodal AI that can create both the image and the sound, including music and voices, we are very far away from that. (Now, "Very far away" might be just 2 or 3 years, but certainly not this month)
LOL, I give it a year (1,5 years max). Remember we need to think exponentially, this is just the beginning of 2023 we are yet to be blown away by the products that will be released this year.
> haha remember when people told me I was CRAZY and HYPER OPTIMISITC
I don't even know who you are
You are right, but the AI image generator's flaws didn't stop it from being a good tool and from being a threat to the artist industry. We do not have to focus on details but on the overall functionality. Besides that, remember that when scaled is likely that those flaws will be corrected. So the point is that the movies don't have to be perfect for the AI to be released, it just needs to be good enough, and hopefully they will be publicly released this year.
Tenticular
It says, Netflix with AI movies. Let's see how far they can go.
We've already seen AI generated videos from a couple of months ago so I wouldn't be surprised if we could make shorter films although very incoherent but NVIDIA I believe did showcase an AI that could take instructions (how to move the camera, where to look, etc...) and generate a video from that and sure the video itself was messy but it DID follow the instructions almost perfectly.
That's definitely what he meant. We'd be lucky to have Deep Floyd released by the end of the month.
I did see months ago they were planning to have an animation module but I assume it's going to be short gif like content like the stuff we've seen until now.
It's just the current state of the video generating models that exist. First - the best of the best are at Google, and we've seen what they currently can do. Even if Stability has been able to spend the last few months replicating the research out of Google, I can't imagine them being able to create a model that can output more than 1 minute of somewhat coherent video. The current large challenge is the inefficiency of these models, the longer the context the MUCH larger the memory and processing power required.
These are problems I would be very surprised to be solved first anywhere other than Google.
What I imagine is more likely is a sort of StyleGAN system that can be applied on a whole video, with some level of coherence.
So you think you'll be able to put in a prompt and get a full, 90 minute coherent video with this update? I would bet big money against that - not even considering things like audio.
The models that Stability have experience with and have shown so far would absolutely not be able to handle anything like that.
However if it's something more like... Style transfer on a full video? I would not be surprised.
More jobs AI can do. Soon it will take care of ur business better than you.
He did say in the interview that he thinks full generated movies with real persons, will be there in 1 or 2 years
> If we have text2video + continuity (so that you can make a prompt, then make another that merges your first one with the second one to give it some kind of continuity) would be amazing.
I take it you are refering to a video from StabilityAI and not Google, because Google has already shown off 'prompt sequence' video gen
I wonder how much the decision by Nvidia to stop supporting NVlink just when having the ability on consumer cards would have been really useful played into the equation?
As in, consumer hardware now taps out at 24gig
VR is next.
>HyperReel enables "6 Degree-of-Freedom video"... It runs 18 frames-per-second at megapixel resolution on an @NVIDIA RTX 3090, using only vanilla PyTorch.
Yep!
And about "we". They are supposed to release the model like they did with Stable Diffusion.
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It probably won't have the same impact, because I guess that it might be a bit too much for most consumer GPUs, but it's very cool to have this kind of tech available.
My estimation of 2 or 3 years wasn't intented as a "realistic estimation", more like a "If everything goes very fast and we are very lucky" scenario. I think that it will probably take much more time to get there.
If you think that's too slow, well, we'll see, haha. I hope to be wrong and that you are right, it would be very cool :P
Have I missed something?
There hasn't been released a model which can reliably produce lengthy, good and consistent videos yet, say a music video for a rapper that doesn't need an edit time comparable to just producing the video manually.
And now this guy is talking about movies? Seems like a bit of a jump to me. Although not impossible he must have discovered something tremendous, eureka worthy.
I won't expect absolute perfection, but I do expect something worth being happy about and excited over. There's a difference between predicting the future, and understanding something which presumably already exists given that it's slated for release within the next three weeks. I also don't see what he would have to gain from hyping up something if it turns out to be extremely underwhelming - that would just be putting his head on the chopping block, damaging his reputation, and subjecting himself to negative pushback.
I was reading about music generation research from OpenAI and I think they said it took 6+ hours to generate a song. So how are these guys generating a whole movie?
I think eventually we will get there in the same way that image diffusion has evolved in the last year.
I doubt we will have anything *INSANE* at first, but it will still be impressively long compared to what we have now (cog video)
I have no idea how good or bad it will be, but I've seen older AI's do long form video before by training on car or Minecraft videos (something on the lines of 10 minutes or so? I forgot where that was tho...)
Its just funny how sure people are that I'm too optimistic, when literally every week in the past year we got a breakthrough and the comments are always something like "WOW THAT HAPPENED FASTER THAN I THOUGHT IT WOULD!!!" or "ITS GOING SO FAST!"
progress gets faster, and last year (2022) was a real speed up, we all felt it. this year will be even faster and if the right shit gets made, the right combo of AI, its over. we just need one that is good enough to self improve. how or when that happens is anybody's guess realistically, but I have a strong gut feeling its gonna be some time this year.
regardless though its gonna be a crazy year.
Then I guess this wasn't for you?
Dude seems like a legit genius, and I'm not even judging that by the tech his company is putting out when I say that.
Seems like a fantastic CEO and I expect some great things!
The rest of us also don't know who you are
I mean that's not my problem xD
I must say I’m impressed by the things he said in the full interview
He seems to care a lot about the open-ness of the tech, let’s see if he follows through with that though
Wow! Dreamstudio Pro is like a dream come true for filmmakers! I can't wait to see what kind of amazing movies will be created with this revolutionary technology. Aifilms.ai is the perfect platform for it, so let's get creative!
That's not how image generation works. Animation and live action are not any more or less difficult than each other to a diffusion model. If anything, live action has extraordinarily more data to learn from than animation, because with animation you have different art styles with only a limited number of frames for each style (though popular and widely used styles like the standard anime look, beanmouth, rubberhose, etc. would naturally outweigh the far more niche and unique styles). Whereas there's quite literally thousands of years' worth of live action video uploaded on YouTube alone.
I think he said they’re up to 30 generations per second this month so essentially real time rendering.
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I know it probably won't be this month or even year, but I am so so fucking excited. The backlash will be crazy. But I'm so excited.
As a kid I used to create entire stories/movies with my toys that would continue on for months. I had the best imagination ever! I miss being a kid and always want to secretly buy action figures so I can "play" with them again lmfao. This will be my playset if this ends up being really good. I wrote a book and would love to turn it into a movie. I'm sure we are far away from that though. Maybe.
> As a kid I used to create entire stories/movies with my toys that would continue on for months
Imagine that, but throughout your entire teenage and adult life, and in your head and musical playlists instead.
That's me, and why I feel an obsessive-compulsive need to see generative AI be realized.
Just joking
Cheers!
What a time to be alive.
fair enough lol :P
Do you think this AI generated movie technology could be used for animating robots?
Dude, I always thought you were absurdly optimistic, but your predictions from years ago are very accurate! WTF are you doing to see this?
I'm just looking at pace of change. we suck at exponentials, so any prediction that FEELS realistic timeline wise will be too slow.
its also really important to remember that once you start feeling and seeing the exponential change, it means we are close to the extremely quick part.
once the lake is halfway full, it is only one doubling away from being full :)
What’s your prediction for 2025-26? Any autonomous robots by then?
tbh it depends on what happens this year. if we get AGI, we get everything else pretty soon after...
forget long format movies
if you can use this to make 10-20 minute porn videos that will probably decimate the entire industry and make 10s of billions.
Let's hope so.
I remember that guy Set/ai talking about how 2023 was going to be the year that AI really takes off and it looks like he was right, although his reasoning was cryptic and hard to interpret.
Antok0123 t1_j3g2wjr wrote
Oh wowwwwwww!!