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CyberAchilles t1_j3p8fix wrote

Reply to comment by HeinrichTheWolf_17 in "Community" Prediction for General A.I continues to drop. by 420BigDawg_

Sources?

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enkae7317 t1_j3pv2yh wrote

Just trust me, bro.

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AsuhoChinami t1_j3tk1e8 wrote

Maybe you could actually give him time to respond before coming up with some snarky little jab? Heinrich is active in multiple communities and is a trustworthy and reliable person.

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throwawaydthrowawayd t1_j3vbipb wrote

/u/rationalkat made a cherry-picked list in the big predictions thread:

  • Rob Bensinger (MIRI Berkeley)
    ----> AGI: ~2023-42
  • Ben Goertzel (SingularityNET, OpenCog)
    ----> AGI: ~2026-27
  • Jacob Cannell (Vast.ai, lesswrong-author)
    ----> AGI: ~2026-32
  • Richard Sutton (Deepmind Alberta)
    ----> AGI: ~2027-32?
  • Jim Keller (Tenstorrent)
    ----> AGI: ~2027-32?
  • Nathan Helm-Burger (AI alignment researcher; lesswrong-author)
    ----> AGI: ~2027-37
  • Geordie Rose (D-Wave, Sanctuary AI)
    ----> AGI: ~2028
  • Cathie Wood (ARKInvest)
    ----> AGI: ~2028-34
  • Aran Komatsuzaki (EleutherAI; was research intern at Google)
    ----> AGI: ~2028-38?
  • Shane Legg (DeepMind co-founder and chief scientist)
    ----> AGI: ~2028-40
  • Ray Kurzweil (Google)
    ----> AGI: <2029
  • Elon Musk (Tesla, SpaceX)
    ----> AGI: <2029
  • Brent Oster (Orbai)
    ----> AGI: ~2029
  • Vernor Vinge (Mathematician, computer scientist, sci-fi-author)
    ----> AGI: <2030
  • John Carmack (Keen Technologies)
    ----> AGI: ~2030
  • Connor Leahy (EleutherAI, Conjecture)
    ----> AGI: ~2030
  • Matthew Griffin (Futurist, 311 Institute)
    ----> AGI: ~2030
  • Louis Rosenberg (Unanimous AI)
    ----> AGI: ~2030
  • Ash Jafari (Ex-Nvidia-Analyst, Futurist)
    ----> AGI: ~2030
  • Tony Czarnecki (Managing Partner of Sustensis)
    ----> AGI: ~2030
  • Ross Nordby (AI researcher; Lesswrong-author)
    ----> AGI: ~2030
  • Ilya Sutskever (OpenAI)
    ----> AGI: ~2030-35?
  • Hans Moravec (Carnegie Mellon University)
    ----> AGI: ~2030-40
  • Jürgen Schmidhuber (NNAISENSE)
    ----> AGI: ~2030-47?
  • Eric Schmidt (Ex-Google Chairman)
    ----> AGI: ~2031-41
  • Sam Altman (OpenAI)
    ----> AGI: <2032?
  • Charles Simon (CEO of Future AI)
    ----> AGI: <2032
  • Anders Sandberg (Future of Humanity Institute at the University of Oxford)
    ----> AGI: ~2032?
  • Matt Welsh (Ex-google engineering director)
    ----> AGI: ~2032?
  • Siméon Campos (Founder CEffisciences & SaferAI)
    ----> AGI: ~2032
  • Yann LeCun (Meta)
    ----> AGI: ~2032-37
  • Chamath Palihapitiya (CEO of Social Capital)
    ----> AGI: ~2032-37
  • Demis Hassabis (DeepMind)
    ----> AGI: ~2032-42
  • Robert Miles (Youtube channel about AI Safety)
    ----> AGI: ~2032-42
  • OpenAi
    ----> AGI: <2035
  • Jie Tang (Prof. at Tsinghua University, Wu-Dao 2 Leader)
    ----> AGI: ~2035
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