franztesting t1_j52oobs wrote on January 19, 2023 at 11:48 PM

Reply to comment by DungeonsAndDradis in I was wrong about metaculus, (and the AGI predicted date has dropped again, now at may 2027) by blueSGL

Sounds like a rather large grain of salt

DungeonsAndDradis t1_j52px80 wrote on January 19, 2023 at 11:57 PM

Well...<pushes glasses up into firing position>

Kurzweil's main shtick is The Law of Accelerating Returns. Basically, technological advances are coming more and more quickly. For example, it took Humanity like 200,000 years to develop the steam engine, and then 200 more to go to the moon.
2022 was a ballistic year for AI advances, from nearly every company that is researching it. PaLM, Lambda, Gato, DALLE-2, ChatGPT. These tools are revolutionary advances in AI.
Following the Law of Accelerating Returns, 2023 should be major leaps in AI, and then again in 2024, and by 2025 things should be bonkers.

My layman's guesstimate is that the next major architectural design is going to happen this year. Much like transformers accelerated AI research in 2017. One or two more major architecture pivots leads us to AGI.

It's only going to get weird from here!

tatleoat t1_j53ksmm wrote on January 20, 2023 at 3:40 AM

I have big suspicions too, we truly can't be that far from an AI that can learn from your behaviors in a professional setting on the fly, everything is there and just needs put together responsibly

icedrift t1_j539w6r wrote on January 20, 2023 at 2:19 AM

Whisper too!! Being able to efficiently train on audio gives us so much more data to work with and we're going to need it. GPT models are already running out of training data.

AsheyDS t1_j55tl03 wrote on January 20, 2023 at 4:35 PM

>My layman's guesstimate is that the next major architectural design is going to happen this year.

You may be right, but a design is speculative until it can be built and tested, and that will take some time.

DungeonsAndDradis t1_j56aqfa wrote on January 20, 2023 at 6:22 PM

I believe the architectural changes have already been made, perhaps last year, and they are currently being tested. I believe we'll see the finished paper(s) announcing one or more breakthroughs this year.

AsheyDS t1_j56cejt wrote on January 20, 2023 at 6:32 PM

Anything you can link me to support that belief? Or is it just a gut feeling based on overall current progress in the AI field?

DungeonsAndDradis t1_j56g89c wrote on January 20, 2023 at 6:56 PM

Of course not, my dude. :) 99% of everything posted on this sub has basis in reality. Just huff the hopium and save for retirement.