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Redditing-Dutchman t1_j4pjhaf wrote

Reply to comment by PhilosophusFuturum in Is it wishful thinking that I feel like we’re way closer than we thought? by fignewtgingrich

This. On a long time scale it looks like a neat exponential line, but in reality there are many plateaus.

Remember how we had the 3D printing hype and everyone on Reddit was saying that in 5 to 10 years everyone was printing all their plates and cups. Then it turns out there are quite a few issues to get to that last step (ultrafast printing with incredible precision is still very far off for example, especially for a decent price)

As these AI models get better and better I personally think we will hit a gap where we just can't get to the next step. (for example reliable, well reasoning AI that can be used for purposes where failing can be costly or dangerous) .

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ohimjustakid t1_j4rxwe1 wrote

>Remember how we had the 3D printing hype and everyone on Reddit was saying that in 5 to 10 years everyone was printing all their plates and cups.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/3d-printed-guns-canada-increase-1.6708049 Yea not like we have literal warehouses full of 3D printed gun parts with ability to print receivers with metallic plastics. Even then the plastic receivers can literally pump out thousands of rounds until they begin cracking. Not like any legit revolutionary movement could use that though, let alone criminals!

It's not like China happens to have 1/3 of the AI companies in the world and is set on their 2030 goal. 2024 being the 75th anniversary of the PLA in time with US presidential election that is bound to be the most polarizing year yet, which is cool cause its not like foreign enemies take advantage of this polarization for their own autocratic means.

Nor are there complete rogue states like North Korea or Iran who have in the past spent millions on counterfeit production, nuclear weapons and cyber attacks.

It's not like the Manhattan Project was so top secret that not even the US Congress knew about it until the bombs dropped.

AI and ML is just like NFTs, sure it gets a lot of traction now but it's not like it can be used for practically any industry, let alone big corps like Amazon, Tesla, Microsoft who just value their human labor WAY more than cheap, efficient computer automation!

We all should fully expect an AI winter because this shit is just so gimicky and its not like the entire globe is getting in on the tech to keep up with an ever expanding field of cybercrime!

Too bad there isn't a way to learn all this stuff for free before making an informed opinion on the carrier pigeon service we're using... OH WAIT

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