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nichogenius t1_je8kxv6 wrote

Reply to comment by Understands-Irony in The brightest gamma-ray in human history hit our planet this past Fall by PuzzleheadedOne1428

Well clearly the odds are probably higher than we realized

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aris_ada t1_je8z94j wrote

On one side we have a statistical model based on our knowledge of the universe till now and on the other side we have n=1 empirical data. I'm siding with the theoretical model.

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nichogenius t1_jeadg48 wrote

The first GRB was only detected in 1967. Assuming we have documented every GRB since (we certainly haven't), that means our observational history only covers 0.5% of that 10,000 year expected frequency of occurence.

Assuming our models are accurate, the odds we were just lucky to see this one in our limited observational history are roughly 0.5%. The odds that our models are underestimating the frequency of these events is quite a bit higher.

Time will tell.

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