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wgp3 t1_ixel6lk wrote

Reply to comment by Dinindalael in Realistically speaking When do you think we will land humans on Mars? by EnaGrimm

The closest thing to that is Elon stating they could land a human on Mars in 10 to 20 years if all goes well back in 2010/2011. There was never a promise to land humans in 2021. Check back in 2031 to make this statement. It'll almost for sure still be accurate. Although if things go well with nasa returning humans to the moon on starship it'll likely only be a few years behind the 20 year prediction.

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Dinindalael t1_ixeog32 wrote

Pretty sure he had given a 2022 date years ago. Everyone knew it wasnt realistic.

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xylopyrography t1_ixep8r2 wrote

The more confident one was always by 2024, but that was before Starship development even really started.

Gwynne Shotwell gave about 10 years in either 2018 or 2019 I think.

I think 2036 is realistically possible. It may require far more resources/effort than are economical or reasonable, but it will probably be possible.

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wgp3 t1_ixf02nl wrote

You're wrong. Never did they state humans by 2022. They mentioned demonstration landings without humans as possible in either 2022 or 2024. Then humans to follow before 2030. That was around the start of starship. And again, it was always "best case if everything goes right". So you're both wrong and even if you were right it would be disingenuous at best for acting like a best case scenario was ever thought of as realistic to begin with.

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jso__ t1_ixf7sll wrote

In terms of a SpaceX unmanned mission, aren't we like 3-4 years off minimum just because it hasn't been planned yet (so if they started planning today it would take 3-4 years)

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wgp3 t1_ixf9iti wrote

Probably. Starship according to nasa won't launch until December at the earliest. So that means January at the earliest. They have to test out a lot of things in earth orbit after the first test. Mostly cryogenic fluid transfer and re-entry testing. Currently they have multiple ships and boosters in the works. So I imagine all of next year will be orbital test flights every couple of months to test out necessary functions for landing humans on the moon in 2025 for nasa.

In 2024 they'll are supposed to do the uncrewed demonstration to the moon. I doubt they will want to send starships to mars near then so as not to make nasa feel like they aren't focused on landing on the moon. I know in the past when working on future projects some at nasa felt they may be distracted from commercial crew.

If they land humans on the moon in 2025 then I could see demonstration missions to mars in the window in 2026. Mostly because they proved starship is safe at that point so any mishaps landing on Mars won't have a big effect on the moon missions. But when it comes to mars that means if they don't do the moon landing until 2026 they'll have to wait til 2028 for the next mars window. That's the earliest I expect a cargo/demonstration mission.

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Dinindalael t1_ixg1zf6 wrote

Listen, you need to understand. Im not mocking SpaceX, they're doing a fantastic job.

I'm specifically mocking Elon.

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