You must log in or register to comment.

4GotMyFathersFace t1_ivjx34g wrote

You're gonna have to be more specific - do the people have to be alive?


doc_nano t1_ivk729j wrote

At the start of the mission, or the end?


hdufort t1_ivjuqql wrote

Probably not. But if SpaceX can land an autonomous habitat (unmanned), or at least a first base module by 2027, that would be a big achievement.

The logistic of a Mars mission are super complex and we will certainly not send a monolithic mission there. We need advance missions to set up the site.


ferrel_hadley t1_ivk5qck wrote

My "hotter than Venus" hot take is Starship will not ferry crew to Mars. We will need to build something bigger and with partial gravity, perhaps a cycler of some kind.

Though if Starship is a fraction of what it is being claimed in terms of costs and speed of reuse, that would be relatively cheap. Relatively doing more heavy lifting than an olympic powerlifter here.


carbamide789234 t1_ivo89ft wrote

>My "hotter than Venus" hot take is Starship will not ferry crew to Mars. We will need to build something bigger and with partial gravity, perhaps a cycler of some kind.

Starship is designed to bring atleast 100 tons of crew and cargo to Mars so Starship will for sure land people Mars. The question is just how long it will take to mature all the tech.


SaintVeloth420 t1_ivol4ys wrote

Bro starship could fit people pretty comfortably.

It wouldn’t be a 5 star hotel but perhaps comparable to a small submarine in terms of space


markyty04 t1_ivkufzg wrote

spaceX will just be the ferry service but they won't be anytime executing a manned mission to another planet. first of all they have no experience and knowledge where to start. there are better people around the world who are more suited than spaceX


Ray_Pingeau t1_ivjuxcr wrote

He can do it just like he did self driving cars, the roadster, the cybertruck and solar roofs safely and on time.


patienceisfun2018 t1_ivjwghh wrote

All that and no mention of Starlink?

(To be fair, I am grateful we FINALLY have broadband service thanks to starlink, but there have been a lot of "adjusting of expectations" along the way").


Torrall t1_ivk18ej wrote

Starlink actually works to a degree, those other things do not.


Ray_Pingeau t1_ivjwys5 wrote

I’m not versed in starlink. I’m a rehabilitating Cult of Musk member and will need a moment.


ferrel_hadley t1_ivk4qlm wrote

Or reusable first stage, Falcon Heavy, Dragon, Crew Dragon etc.

>self driving cars, the roadster, the cybertruck and solar roofs

They are all Tesla not SpaceX products. Not sure what your beef with the roadster is either.

Musk is a hype man with hits and misses. The best approach is to look at things form a technical perspective. He is slotted to place crew on the Moon in 2024. But SpaceX is known for slippage and the whole of Artemis is years behind. That would give him about 4 years to turn Starship into something that could last a journey to Mars and back. Technically plausible. But I would place it in the unlikely. Not because "Musk" because the timelines are too short for solving over two years in microgravity, for something as short as a flag and photos mission.


Subject_Meat5314 t1_ivko2sv wrote

i don’t think anyone would say it won’t be done because Musk is incompetent. the beef is that Musk asserts things will be done in time frames that competent people cannot meet.


b_a_t_m_4_n t1_ivjwgu8 wrote

No. SpaceX might be able to though. They created the first self-landing fully reusable booster when everyone was telling them it wasn't possible. They're an innovative company with a lot of very clever people working for them so, assuming everything goes right, I think it's possible, if not likely.

Assuming Elon the loose cannon doesn't fuck things up by opening his mouth at the wrong time.


Ok-Substance420 t1_ivjxz32 wrote

Fair enough. The idea excites me but It puts a bad taste in my mouth when Elon starts talking about colonizing Mars and how he is going to save humanity blah blah blah ....I guess that is the loose cannon you are referring to


b_a_t_m_4_n t1_ivk0czf wrote

Honestly, the guy has been instrumental in some ways in making this stuff happen, particularly on the financing front, but in other ways he's just been an utter nob that makes life difficult for Gwynne Shotwell who actually runs SpaceX. I just wish he'd keep his mouth shut until a grown up has vetted what he wants to say.


Ok-Substance420 t1_ivk2v1j wrote

haha that's funny, he does have Aspergers and seemingly no filter...of all comments I think you have helped my perspective and feelings on Him and his claims.

theres alot of haters and a lot of people who just hang on every word he says..but just take it with a grain of salt


markyty04 t1_ivkursj wrote

like I said spaceX will just be the ferry service but they won't be at anytime in the future executing a manned mission to another planet. first of all they have no experience and knowledge on what to do, there are better persons around the world who can do that. only way I see SpaceX involved in planning a manned mission to mars is if they are seized and taken over by a government.


figl4567 t1_ivjvd5m wrote

Zero chance. Elon makes lots of claims that turn out to be fantasy. Full self driving, boring tunnels, Mars colony, 20k tesla, 35k model 3, founder of PayPal, founder of tesla, Twitter. I could go on but it makes me sad because I believed in Elon for years.


Jazano107 t1_ivjyzf7 wrote

people? no, but i do think some starships will land there that year

maybe the window or two after for people if we're lucky


Ok-Substance420 t1_ivjza6x wrote

starships eh.....this ain't the enterprise man

I apologize if that's what they are called.


Puma_Concolour t1_ivkbi84 wrote

So clearly you aren't someone who cares about rocketry or you live under a rock. Yes, Starship is the name of the program and vehicle.


Ok-Substance420 t1_ivkc4xs wrote

nope just the average spectator, I apologized for my mistake....not just jumping to the moon, I suppose starship is fitting


Callec254 t1_ivjw2wj wrote

Probably not, but at least somebody is working on it.


KirisBeuller t1_ivjudjj wrote

If the entire planet worked together to make it happen we probably STILL wouldn't be on Mars by the end of the decade.


FreefolkForever2 t1_ivjwbvd wrote

10 years ago he said he would land people on mars in 2022.

There is a big movement lately for rich and powerful people to lie 100% of the time, so basically we have to remove trust from the equation when predicting what will happen and what won’t happen.


RnDanger t1_ivjxhmq wrote


He's saying words that get him political clout and investors. The reality is they don't care what's real as long as they are living large.


4thDevilsAdvocate t1_ivk99jx wrote

Objectively, it's probably possible, and SpaceX has certainly made moves in that direction, what with Starship and the offshore launch platform conversion project.

But by 2029? Musk is either lying — which I see no motivation for him to do — or he hasn't an idea what he's talking about.

At most, maybe an empty, uncrewed Starship will smack the Martian atmosphere by 2029, and potentially even make a one-way landing. But the odds of that are low, IMO.


standarduser2 t1_ivmdjms wrote

You might not see his motivation for lying, yet he does all the time.


4thDevilsAdvocate t1_ivmflc0 wrote

Why would he lie in this case? What benefit does it provide him?

Automatically assuming everything Musk says is a lie has logical gaps that are pointed out the second he says something like "the sky is blue" or "one company I run, SpaceX, builds rockets".


standarduser2 t1_ivmpty6 wrote

Musk said they would go to Mars in 2022, then 2024, then 2026.

I don't know why he lies, I just know what he does.


4thDevilsAdvocate t1_ivmq09b wrote

Have you considered that, instead of consciously lying, he might simply have no clue what he's talking about?


standarduser2 t1_ivq9fvd wrote

There's zero chance he believed his cars could drive NY to LA in 2016.

So, I've considered it, but the evidence is not there.


4thDevilsAdvocate t1_ivqafh4 wrote

>There's zero chance he believed his cars could drive NY to LA in 2016.

Which has what to do with this?

Him lying under other circumstances (even if he was lying) doesn't mean that he's lying in this one. If he said the sky was blue, would you not believe him because he lied in 2016?


standarduser2 t1_ivra0nr wrote

The claim he will be on Mars in 2029 is obviously unlikely.

And yes, when someone is a pathological liar, its hard to believe their lies in the future. A constant liar and hype man making any claim makes it less believed.


4thDevilsAdvocate t1_ivk9p4t wrote

Whether or not it's Musk saying it has no bearing on whether or not it's possible. Objectively, though, it's probably not.


EmperorGeek t1_ivlepp0 wrote

I’m interested in the tech. I’m not interested in a one way trip to another planet with a very real possibility of starving or asphyxiating as some point.

Elon is welcome to take that trip if he wants but in no way am I going to volunteer for that kind of one way trip.


Ok-Substance420 t1_ivjujnx wrote

Also, Relativity Space and Impulse Space claim to have their first commercial mission to Mars in 2024. Is this possible?


Callec254 t1_ivjw0ik wrote

We don't care about that. We only care about Elon Musk's claims, because politics.


GimmyJrimble t1_ivjycxp wrote

For such a massive leap in space travel they have a shocking lack of information about how they plan to do it.


spacegeekatx t1_ivjvvin wrote

He is the first one to admit he often underestimates the timelines for things


Conscious_Exit_5547 t1_ivjykvg wrote

I think he and Kanye will have boarded the John Mcaffee CrAZY tRAiN by then..


AxderH t1_ivk1cnz wrote

Would love to see it. But doubt it hard. If we see Starship crash into Mars by that date I will call it a huge succes. 2022 is almost over and we still didnt saw the test launch of super heavy. If things go great, we might see some first catch atempts next year, but I would not bet on it. Starship propulsive landing seems super maybe thing of the future.

I do hope to see all of these things, but I dont bealive we will see human step onto Mars in this decade.


MrZorg58 t1_ivkh8ws wrote

If the FAA would allow him to text his Starship in orbit. So far they have done nothing but hold him back, so much so, he's having to build a new launch tower at Kennedy where he's already approved for testing.


LegitimateGift1792 t1_ivkmdox wrote

I believe this (FAA delays) is what caused him to get impatient and spout his mouth off about Twitter and then get forced into buying it.

Tesla is in a build out phase. SpaceX operations are smooth sailing. So SpaceX development is the only thing that can hold his attention right now.


NoFan3693 t1_ivkhacc wrote

Do we know what it takes to launch from mars on a return? Then dock with a return vehicle.


Slavir_Nabru t1_ivlko0g wrote

Possible, yes.

Likely, not even remotely on that timescale.


IndividualHair2668 t1_ivlo6sf wrote

Of course not…… do you know what is Elon time? Realistically, he will send some ship to Mars by 2026. Human? More like 2036


OnlyMortal666 t1_ivlvgox wrote

I doubt it and I doubt it’ll be his astronauts. But, I’m fairly sure it’ll be his technology that’s used.

I’d be surprised if it’s not NASA astronauts flying SpaceX kit.

Frankly, there’s no other viable option.


SpaceInMyBrain t1_ivm2cgi wrote

I'm a big fan of Starship and its capabilities but there's very, very little chance of landing people on Mars by 2029. Ships can be sent but the infrastructure for in situ production of propellant has to be developed, iterated, and repeatably reliable and hold up long term before sending a crew. Otherwise if there's a failure the crew will end up as dead as Matt Damon without potatoes.


standarduser2 t1_ivmd4n1 wrote

He said maybe by 2024. But for sure by 2026.

Do you mean he will personally fly the vehicle with millions of new Martians by 2029?


DNathanHilliard t1_ivmdo62 wrote

I think there is a lot of testing (especially on life support) to be done between now and then. So I'm thinking more mid-2030s


adun_toridas1 t1_ivmp01o wrote

Land, yes, will they be alive when they get there will be another matter entirely


Much_Yogurtcloset_75 t1_ivn43gt wrote

Mars is an impossible dream for living humans… living humans.


Dylanear t1_ivnervi wrote

Nope!!!! Space X has done amazing things in incredible time lines and will continue to do amazing things, but I don't see it. We haven't even seen a orbital Starship launch yet. Elon was talking like that was a sure thing in a matter of months a year and a half ago. The rocket tech will be there by then I have little doubt. But the whole, keep humans safe and alive on the way, on the planet and on the way back thing? Takes a lot of work!!! I don't see that happening in 6 years. I could see a human capable design landing and returning by then, maybe a test for a human mission? Just think of the sample return a Starship based Mars lander could bring back. Literally TONS of martian rocks and dirt!

Certainly not if Elon can't keep his eye on the ball and keeps getting distracted by epically dumb shit like buying Twitter. Elon, if you aren't smart enough to stay a few steps away from far right the neo fascists, you know, the folks who don't believe in climate change, then you really need to just stay out of politics as much as you possibly can. I fear Elon is going to alienate any healthy people from his life and just end up holed up saving his nail clippings and keeping his piss in jars like Howard Hughes before he gets us to Mars to be honest. He's just surrounding himself with toxic dipshits in his personal life, what healthy well adjusted person would want to deal with a horribly unselfaware egomaniac like that as a friend. And I fear his mental health team is filled with yes men, so no one can get through to have him understand that being a genius at many things, doesn't make you a genius at everything, especially emotional intelligence and honesty.

At a certain point I think the national and global importance of Space X is going to make Musk being in full command untenable. I really hope he gets the help he needs.


ServiceTemporary1871 t1_ivnsp1p wrote

No problem if you want them alive for a matter of time that's a different story.


Princess--Azula t1_ivnswuv wrote

The boring answer is, that he's yet to prove his rocket ship can wriggle itself out of the atmosphere. If this will be successful, he could theoretically fill his spaceship with consumables and send one over there. He would probably die, but technologically, he could send one there after his orbital launch success.

But realistically, he will add more middle steps after the first orbital launch, which will not exactly be a real stable space orbit thingy- the first real stable-orbit orbital flight, the first ship-to-ship fuel transfer will definitely be things that are going to happen before.

Launch permits seems to be a significant contributor to delays (Although boring, I still think they tend to make sense and are grounded on good reasoning EXEPT the "SLS before Starship" thing, if this is proven to be true)

I think the 30s - 40s (weird to write that) will be more realistic.

You have to take into account, that there will be challenges, that are entirely unknown to us as of now - Things will break and improve, plans altered and so on.

But I'm honestly less concerned about the technological aspect of things and more concerned about the lack of interest in a serious discussion about the subject of cosmic rays. Of course it's boring to bring up something that slows things down. But what benefit does it give humanity if the only thing we achieve is giving astronuts cancer??

We need a "deflector/energy shield technology" of some sort. Look what's swirling around there. Water around a safe room is one suggestion. Some type of armor is another. And scientists research a deflector shield that creates a strong magnetic field around a space craft or astronaut.. Then again, (electro)magnetic fields create radiation exposure themselves. Much worse is that living on Mars itself does not protect you from this type of radiation. So, you can't even brush the exposure off as something happening temporally on the trip to Mars and nowhere else.

So many things to consider only for this tiny detail. And already here, Musk has yet to show true understanding of the severity of the problem. Unless he wants to irradiate astronauts until they all mutate to be resistant to cosmic radiation.


Fearless-Bother7818 t1_ivoa1b0 wrote

6 years seems doable with the current technologies if it becomes an international effort. Unfortunately, I think going to Mars will become less and less popular as the climate on Earth is rapidly getting out of control and, really, people just don't care anymore... Artemis is a prime example, if the US and allies wanted get back to the Moon, we would be there again. No doubt. China (good for them) will stomp the rest of the world at this space game. It seems like occidental people accept status quo or regressing and are just happy reading about/talking about other people twitting or tiktoking or whatever weird way to communicate.


BigPhotojournalist76 t1_ivk2261 wrote

As someone who was previously a massive fan of his - no he cannot. Even if SpaceX has the capability within the next few years investors are unlikely to finance such a venture - especially due to high risk of failure and poorly understood risks. If SpaceX makes it to Mars it will be through NASA, after we full understand the effects and challenges of space on humans through lunar colonisation efforts.


Harry_the_space_man t1_ivljyf9 wrote

This idea that we need to test on the moon to prepare for mars is complete bullshit. And spaceX are aiming to fully find mars through Starlink, not investors. And NASA say the would want a person on mars by the 2040s, but they have been extremely vague about any plans.

There are valleys on Mars that can sustain a high radiation tolerance, which the moon does not have. Mars is also a lot warmer, with temperatures between 20 Celsius and minus 30 Celsius.


simcoder t1_ivlkxcf wrote

Got any evidence about Starlink fully funding Mars? It's funny how often that keeps coming back up.


Harry_the_space_man t1_ivlqgpk wrote

Because it’s the stated plan. Starlink has roughly 900,000 paying subscribers (it was 100,000 at the beginning of the year). The average Starlink cost is 110 for residential, and 135 for movable starlink. With 100,000 users on mobile Starlink, that’s 162,000,000 a year in revenue, plus the 1,056,000,000 per year from residential, and they have 1,218,000,000 in revenue per year. Right now they are constantly launching satellites and combined with other Starlink related expenses they are spending roughly 1.5 billion per year on Starlink. So they are making a roughly 300 million loss on Starlink each year. But with there planned 13,000 sats all working at once with laser links, they could service tens of millions of people. According to a Microsoft poll over 70 million people in America alone would spend upwards of 100 dollars for good internet, and that’s just America. Even if you be pessimistic and say they can only manage 10 million subscribers, that’s a yearly revenue of 13,350,000,000. They can accomplish this by launching Starlink V2s on starship with 5X the bandwidth of normal Starlink sats for double the cost. And because of the laser links they can distribute the usage.


BigPhotojournalist76 t1_ivt13id wrote

Point to where I said it was a need. I said that's the plan for NASA. Personally I think it's a much better alternative to charging toward another planet without any space infrastructure and without understanding the full effects on the human body.


egregiouscodswallop t1_ivkbxhn wrote

The US government in contracts with private space entities including SpaceX? Yes. For Elon Musk, I doubt very much is possible at all. Does he know anything about rockets or habitation systems? Or people? Or Mars?

Would he happen to know how many gees people experience on the surface? Would he be able to tell you the names of the crew without a notecard?


ep_soe t1_ivm2t6p wrote

I doubt anyone will land humans on the moon by then, let alone Mars.


MadMadBunny t1_ivjulcg wrote

If he ever had any chance of doing so eventually (regardless of the year), well he now blew it spectacularly.


Ok-Substance420 t1_ivjuvd9 wrote

yes If he is focused on "dying on Mars" then why did he buy Twitter....almost like he gets bored and moves to the next thing


zuky211 t1_ivjvnvw wrote

From 10 things Musk promise or say Only 1 or 2 things are done. He is liar and he knows it, even stocks buyers know this but they keep quite cuz it brings them money or something else. He said ppl in Mars in 2022 in 2017. Where is boring company with these life saving tunels? In traffic! Where is solar power roof? Oops. Where is Tesla Truck? Oops.

This Musk is bilionare who bend ppl which working for him. Bye


Conscious_Exit_5547 t1_ivjysl0 wrote

Rich American investors have shown that they take no issues with "liars" as long as they're making money...


GimmyJrimble t1_ivjx8ya wrote

No. Elon loves to manipulate people and markets with BS claims.


Fueled_by_sugar t1_ivk21bo wrote

After he destroys Twitter, he'll need something new to focus on, so I have my hopes up 👍


Less-Daikon6267 t1_ivkmgdf wrote

MAGA mission to Mars. Load it up and send them away👍


[deleted] OP t1_ivkq6j6 wrote



GinaAndJack t1_ivl9zd5 wrote

We will meet humanity with great force if they attempt to colonize Mars. As we have agreed, time and time again, you may do with your moon whatever you'd like, so long as it doesn't interfere with our base. But beyond your moon you are not allowed.


Harry_the_space_man t1_ivlkfrk wrote

What are you talking about


Ok-Substance420 t1_ivlp4yr wrote

i think hes assuming identity of an alien and is issuing a warning to humanity if we venture beyond the moon, as it would interfere with their "base" lol damm I always wondered what crack was like


wtfburritoo t1_ivjykuo wrote

Elon's been claiming he'll have full self-driving cars for the better part of a decade... still hasn't delivered.

The dude's full of bullshit.


SoftGroundbreaking53 t1_ivjud50 wrote

No chance. I think we are looking at another 30 to 50 years.


ShallowBlueWater t1_ivksbua wrote

Absolutely not. Guy over exaggerates everything. He is the over promise and under deliver guy. The great hype. He is the ultimate stock pump guy.