ferrel_hadley t1_j0yjpjr wrote
Reply to comment by positive_charging in Which theory about aliens is the most likely? by [deleted]
It would take a couple of hundred thousands of years for self replicating machines to be at every star in the galaxy. Size of the galaxy only really applies to single points.
If they exist they are either already here or have zero interest in other societies.
The thing is whatever the answer is it has to be a general one, it has to be every technological society follows the same path and does not explore.
Shorts_Man t1_j0ylk54 wrote
>It would take a couple of hundred thousands of years for self replicating machines to be at every star in the galaxy.
This is a reason that I think we might be one of the first technological civilizations in the galaxy. If we still exist as a species in 100,000 years we will have undoubtedly spread to other star systems while broadcasting obvious techno signatures to any species with at least our current technology. 100,000 years is a blink of an eye in cosmological terms. If there were previous intelligent civilizations you would think that one of them would become space faring and we would have observed something unnatural by now.
hilberteffect t1_j0ys9na wrote
Your argument has multiple fallacies and makes assumptions that may not hold.
- Anthropocentrism and convergent evolution. Why should extraterrestrial civilizations resemble ours in any way? Their neural architecture, senses, communication methods, technology, culture, and prime directives could be as unrecognizable to a human as humans' to a fruit fly. Maybe they evolved on a planet bathed in radiation from numerous sources and have sense organs that allow them to communicate with each other by transmitting and receiving X-rays. What if this radiation prevented them from making accurate astronomical observations beyond their planet, thereby severely limiting their scientific progress? Or what if the particular operation of their brains makes them completely disinterested in space exploration? We can't rule anything out. On a related note, you seem to assume that the development and use of specific technologies for broadcasting signals to the universe is inevitable for any intelligent civilization. There's no reason to suppose that. Aliens could be using different bandwidths than we do, or a different technology altogether.
- The cosmological timescale argument cuts both ways. We've had the technology for detecting non-visible astronomical radiation for less than a century. This is a vanishingly small window of opportunity. The last signals from an extinct civilization could've easily passed our planet eons ago - or conversely, may have yet to arrive.
- I don't think you fathom how large space really is. There could be thousands of space-faring civilizations zipping around the Milky Way, and the odds that any one encounters another during their existence overlap window would still be infinitesimally small. For all we know, a civilization near the center of the Milky Way could have developed near-light speed travel 20,000 years ago, packed their bags, and took off in our direction. If so, they've still got another 6,000 years to go (from our frame of reference). And unless their heading is reallllllyyy precise, they could easily overshoot our humble Solar System with neither civilization ever being the wiser.
seanrm92 t1_j0ysff0 wrote
The implicit assumption is that not only does a technologically advanced society exist, but they also have the ability and desire to create space-faring self-replicating robots. So, on top of the other restrictions involved with the Fermi paradox, you're adding: Being on a planet where the gravity isn't too strong for space launches using available materials. A society that wants to spread out into space and has the technological, economic, and political will to do so. And also having self-replicating robots that actually succeed at their mission.
This would be miraculously rare. Maybe something on the order of one in every few thousand galaxies has such a society. There's no guarantee that even we humans would be able to achieve that.
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