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A_Vandalay t1_j5ub0sy wrote

Depends what you mean by make it big. Some will likely succeed and even thrive as launch companies. However launch is a particularly difficult part of the industry to succeed in. The overwhelming majority of the revenue in space is made from providing satellite services not launching them. There is a reason SpaceX is trying to break into that market. Launch is incredibly competitive and is likely to become more so as reusable rockets increase the development required to be competitive while lowering the expected revenue per launch. All of these problems are exacerbated by the sheer number of small sat providers entering the market. There just isn’t the market demand to sustain all of these providers. 1-2 maybe but there are several dozen. And almost 10 with real hardware/potential to be operational in the next year or so. From the outside it looks like that whole segment of the industry is bubble that is about to pop, and the only ones that will survive long term will be the ones that can progress beyond small launch to the medium/heavy lift as both relativity and Rocketlab are working towards.

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somdude04 t1_j5uxozy wrote

If SpaceX gets Starship to the same frequency and reliability as Falcon 9, the market for other launch providers is almost gone. 60 Starship launches a year would outclass all other launch providers combined by an order of magnitude, at a lower combined cost.

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