Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments

TminusTech t1_ja0nv6x wrote

It’s only a matter of time until the EV market becomes more and more competitive. Would be nice for Tesla to not have a disproportionate monopoly over the space and chargers.

Hopefully Congress steps in and addresses the issue of charging standards and artificial eco systems.


whyreadthis2035 t1_ja10buu wrote

Especially with Tesla sounding more and more like DeLorean.


jasoncross00 t1_ja25eob wrote

Maybe I just don't know that much about DeLorean, but this comparison seemed strange to me? They never made even 10,000 DeLoreans, right? They're making 2 million Teslas a year now. They've been the top-selling car of any kind in Norway for a couple years now. Last year the Model Y was the top selling car of any kind in California (second place was the Model 3). They've had almost four straight years of profitable quarters, and are profiting to the tune of over $3B a quarter now.

I mean there are plenty of gripes to have about the company and especially its CEO, but you can't say they're not selling tons of cars and making tons of money.


whyreadthis2035 t1_ja2gcoh wrote

It’s weak and only goes so far as the company is going to fall off a cliff. And that’s going to leave owners in a bad place.


Gk5321 t1_ja3ic7a wrote

Why is it necessary to be so negative. They’re the first successful new car company in how many decades? They’re also American made (or wherever you happen to live now) - and the most American made car (they have the most parts made here. I know Elon is controversial but they did something amazing and it’s so stupid to keep shitting on them over and over again. They have their own issues but the company is only 20 years old if you can even say that. They literally changed the industry.


whyreadthis2035 t1_ja4uss8 wrote

My issue is with Musk and with how EXTREMELY overvalued Tesla is. Once the big auto makers go all in, Tesla is fine. Musk himself spends too much time disrupting the economy. And now he’s sold out and taken his marbles to Texas. It isn’t a good thing. It’s not a successful car company. It’s a successful tech company. I’m ready for a mature ford product. Ford KNOWS how to make a pickup truck. The only thing that has been throttling their investment is that they don’t have Tesla’s inflated market cap. I could go on. We could share a beer and find common ground. I’ve had a solar roof since before it was cool. We need EVs mass produced for everyone. Ford is going too high on the F150 price right now. But, that will correct itself once the big auto makers are convinced fossil fuels don’t rule congress.


Specialist-Document3 t1_ja5uq6u wrote

I want this to be true, but I don't think it is. Tesla's margins are really high compared to legacy Auto makers. I honestly wish Elon would disappear in a puff of smoke, but I have not seen anything that seems to indicate that the company is actually going to start losing money soon. Even if they never roll out fsd release (aka not beta). Unless he sucks money out of the car business and into the robot business? But I don't think that's currently happening at a level to kill the entire company.

I do agree however that legacies will catch up. I think Ford's ev looking like a regular truck is a stroke of genius that will actually propel the masses towards EVs rather than only targeting nerdy demographics. Rivian looks great too. So do the Audi e Tron variants and the latest Nissan leaf and ariya. The list goes on. I think the legacies will catch up on mass production of EVs, but new platforms and new assembly lines are expensive and Tesla does have 10 years of amortizing those costs. I don't think Tesla's going to disappear when they have strong price gouging capabilities and strong price undercutting capabilities.


KickBassColonyDrop t1_jaa0gw2 wrote

The real tell will be how the Cybertruck does against the F-150 lightning. If the former dethrones the latter in every category that can qualify for what it means to make a pickup truck, this argument is going to fall apart.


Maverick0984 t1_ja3mvu3 wrote

I think a lot of people feel it's a sham though. Yes, they pushed EV forward but they also likely won't be here in 10-15 years, gobbled up by a real car company.

They have been overcharging for years to make up for their massive money sinks in failed initiatives.


Gk5321 t1_ja41anx wrote

I think a lot of people on Reddit push that narrative. In real life people have no clue about musk and just automatically think Tesla when they hear EV. Even when they see an add for Ford or Chevy EVs they think Tesla.


Maverick0984 t1_ja41jb3 wrote

I really can't disagree with this more. At least the real life around me anyway.


Gk5321 t1_ja41onn wrote

I think EVs are pretty regional. Here in Florida they’re everywhere and for the most part Teslas.


Maverick0984 t1_ja472kt wrote

Maybe? I have never really mentioned quantity or what it is in the marketplace today. My comment is about the long term. They are not built to last. Teslas in general were a status symbol and they aren't anymore. The luster has wore off and people see them for what they are, now that other options exist.


homogenousmoss t1_ja6d8nt wrote

I have two Tesla and my wife has no idea who Musk is. Its just a car brand to her and she works in a garage. Its like I have no idea who the CEO of any car company is except Tesla and its only because of reddit that I know who he is.


KickBassColonyDrop t1_jaa06np wrote

How are they going to be gobbled up by a real car company. I mean, what does that even mean "real car company"?

Are you implying that Tesla isn't a real car company? Lol?


Maverick0984 t1_jaa1abh wrote

>Are you implying that Tesla isn't a real car company?

Yes, that is precisely what I am implying. Musk himself has said they are a tech company first, car company second. Trying to get that crazy valuation.

We're seeing that fail now, hence the crashing valuation.


KickBassColonyDrop t1_jaa51z7 wrote

Lol? What crashing evaluation? The market always pulls back during fears of a recession. Tale as old as time.


fireisveryfun t1_ja1jpjf wrote

I wonder how the muskrats would cope with Tesla fumbling a decade long technology and presence lead.


pablo_pick_ass_ohhh t1_ja1maa8 wrote

Elon is doing a pretty good job of telling the world exactly what a fucking buffoon he is.


Bobby_Marks2 t1_ja23qkn wrote

It's all but guaranteed at this point. Tesla should have taken their head start and used it to learn how to make vehicles with all the same capacity for quality that established manufacturers do. Instead, they wasted time disrupting industry for disruption's sake.

Teslas aren't really price-competitive, not when the whole picture is measured. Shoddy manufacturing practices means lots of parts that need to be replaced inside warranty windows. For example, we had a Tesla come in for window tinting at work, and one of the door panels wasn't properly installed - no big deal, we pop those out and in all the time so we can do the customer a favor. Except we couldn't do this one, because when the door panel was installed properly the door wouldn't close.

We work on lots of new and luxury vehicles. Teslas are built shoddy. The Chevy Bolt starts at like $27k if you want an economy EV, the Hyundai Ioniq at $41k if you want middle-of-the-road quality, and the Cadillac Lyriq starts at $58k if you want luxury from a brand that actually understands luxury. Their truck appears like it will be beaten to market by most of the competition, and there's just so many options out there or in the pipe.

What is Tesla's niche? They remind me of where Netflix was a year ago: the first-mover of a guaranteed-to-be-standardized-in-the-future technology, riding high on nothing but the fact that their revenues are high. No forward strategy but to assume everything will continue to be awesome.


fizzlefist t1_ja3a2av wrote

The only real advantages they have left are not needing to buy through a dealership middle-man, and their charging network. And the latter is a very real differentiator if you plan on going long-distances in your EV.


Bobby_Marks2 t1_ja5oz9f wrote

And Tesla may very well give up the exclusivity of their charging network in order to qualify for the federal EV rebate.


moofunk t1_ja3mswm wrote

As far as we understand from anecdotal reports and scattered news articles, build quality problems are mostly from cars built at the Fremont factory, i.e. all Model S and X, all American Model 3 and most American Model Y.

If you buy a Model 3 made in Shanghai, you may get a better car.

Model Y production is about to start up in Texas, which has a better reputation in manufacturing.


mdielmann t1_ja2t5uo wrote

Some people would call me a muskrat. I plan on buying a non-Tesla EV. There are better options on the market for a similar price.


weaselmaster t1_ja1nbe2 wrote

Would be pretty in character for Elon to turn out to be a high level cocaine dealer…


The_4th_Little_Pig t1_ja0yf57 wrote

I believe there is a big government rollout for charging infrastructure currently happening.


Ancient_Persimmon t1_ja0re1w wrote

Tesla are rolling out the "Magic Dock" for cars that use CCS1, that should cover pretty much everybody even if the other OEMs admit defeat and switch connectors.


drysart t1_ja159p5 wrote

I don't know that I'd characterize the entire industry except Tesla coalescing around an open, non-patent-encumbered, superior connector as a "defeat" they need to admit and switch away from.

Tesla's connector falls under Tesla's "you can use it if you promise to never sue us ever, for any reason" patent offering which already makes it kryptonite for literally every other company in the world; but it's also a less capable connector, not capable of safely carrying >500V when we're increasingly seeing vehicles capable of accepting higher voltages.


Be-like-water-2203 t1_ja1a0mc wrote

Fun fact: Tesla use CCS in Europe, they changed all stations to be only CCS due to EU legislation, and all Tesla cars sold in EU ccs only version.


Ancient_Persimmon t1_ja1ak1q wrote

Tesla completely opened their connector up last fall when they updated the spec. It can be used with the CCS protocol, so no need to license Tesla's proprietary one and it's rated to 1000V x 1000A.


Zorb750 t1_ja212wo wrote

I have a really hard time with the idea of more than maybe 500A sustained for any amount of time on that connector. Cite proof.


Zorb750 t1_ja31gz9 wrote

Whatever, downvote away. I have one. I can see the cross-sectional size of the pins. I feel like the "V3" superchargers, which deliver around 700 amps through this connector, are really the practical limit. My car does not have this, but I can tell you that when interrupted during the highest amperage (about half of the above) parts of charging, the connector is warm. I can't see tripling as feasible.


homogenousmoss t1_ja6dtpj wrote

Wouldnt it be possible with the active cooling they’ve been adding?


InvisibleEar t1_ja1rygi wrote

That's only mostly true

Nissan is not going to give it up on the Leaf without a fight for some reason.


Bobby_Marks2 t1_ja23xj5 wrote

Probably has to do with developing cars/engines/batteries/manufacturing technologies around specific voltage/amperage, so it's not as easy as just wiring a different connector in.


InvisibleEar t1_ja3mq7e wrote

Yeah I don't know, I'm not an electricity man. But they can't ignore it forever. I'm happy with my used Leaf, but I think between the limited fast charge options and the battery management I wouldn't recommend people but a new one.


Bobby_Marks2 t1_ja5ov1a wrote

Yeah we went from Leaf to Chevy Bolt and I'd recommend the Bolt all day long over the Leaf.


InvisibleEar t1_ja8et7h wrote

Yeah I may have wasted money trying to save money but with my income I felt sick signing for 25k or more.


Zorb750 t1_ja20wom wrote

The Tesla connector can easily handle higher voltages. It's downfall is on the amperage side, due to smaller pins.


drysart t1_ja2gts1 wrote

They apparently released a 1000V-capable revision of it back in late November that I wasn't aware of; but the previous connector can indeed only handle 500V.


Zorb750 t1_ja31pki wrote

Must just be a materials change with the insulation of the wire in it. Looking at mine, I can't see a reason it couldn't handle 1000 V. The size of the pins is what concerns me as far as amperage.


drysart t1_ja3vr7w wrote

I had a discussion here on reddit back in September (about two weeks before Tesla announced their new 1000V plug variant) where I went over specifically what limits their plug to 500V, and concluded it was primarily the airgapped distance between their high voltage pins, not the size of the pins themselves.

If you look at the technical specs that they ended up releasing two weeks later where they introduced their new 1000V-capable variant, you'll notice that the most noticeable change between the 500V variant and the 1000V variant (see pages 16 and 21, specifically), is that they've recessed everything relating to the HV connections back into each side of the connection about 5mm; which adds about 10mm to the airgap, which is more than sufficient to safely extinguish a 1000V arc before it can bridge the pins.

Notably, though, the thickness of the pins themselves is unchanged in the 1000V variant. I'm not going to do the math right now but I wonder if that pin gauge is what holds their new connector design back from being >1000V capable because increasing the airgap alone should buy them plenty of safety headroom (but I'll also admit I'm not intimately familiar with the necessary safety margins they'd be aiming for).


Zorb750 t1_ja43z20 wrote

Well, the size of the pins is never going to have anything to do with voltage. Voltage ratings are always a function of insulation, whether that is in the form of an air gap, some sort of dielectric material like wire insulation, even the dielectric properties of the material the connect your body is made of.

I'm going to read over this. Remember that there are plenty of very thin conductors that carry high voltages. The pin size only needs to be able to handle the amperage, as well as having reasonable properties against wear. In fact, one of the reasons that higher voltages are often used in a DC circuit, is to allow more power capacity with a given size of conductor. Look at Qualcomm with quickcharge 2 and 3. Your normal USB cable is good for roughly 2 amps, maybe a little bit more, so you can't increase the amperage beyond that, but you can drive up the voltage and just use a buck converter in the phone. That's also why those phones get so hot when they are charging.


Zorb750 t1_ja60jt9 wrote

This is actually pretty interesting. I read over your couple of pages you sent me.

As far as safety margins, I'm not sure. I know that the highest I have ever seen on mine was in the low 400 volt range, but I also know the newer Model S has a 500 volt configuration, and the model 3 is approximately 350 volts. I know that they wouldn't run the connector right up to its tolerance, or I think even within 25% of it. That with the model 3 is part of what really surprises me, though. I'm not sure how they are pulling that off, if maybe the model 3 connector is slightly different of the car end. I have looked at mine in detail obviously, but it's old now. I'm still somewhat impressed every time I see much over 100kw (seen low 120s), at over 300 amps at 400 volts. I don't use the supercharger often, though.


KickBassColonyDrop t1_ja9zmef wrote

Tesla has a disproportionate monopoly because the legacy market was dismissive and neglectful, believing that BEVs had no future and the cost of transition was too exorbitant relative to shareholder interests.

Tesla on multiple investor and earnings calls admitted that they banked on the legacies taking Tesla seriously with each new advancement that they made, and acting like woken dragons to drive Tesla out of the business.

Time and again, competition never came. But now, Tesla is basically the 747 on the runway about to open up full throttle on all 4 engines and all the legacies are at the gate looking through the window in fear as to what it means if that plane takes off.

The IRA's purpose is to bail these companies out, but similar to how AWS dominates the world, I expect that Tesla will own ~50-60% of the total market share out to 2040. First movers advantage is like dumping NOS into your car's tank. You're gonna pull some serious Gs, but if nobody takes you seriously, you'll pull so far ahead that even if you slip up, the probability that you won't pull first is unlikely.

Lastly, Tesla spend the last 10 years building out their supercharger network because they recognized the importance of that network to the entire BEV platform ecosystem. It's not that they have a monopoly here. It's just that, their superchargers are vastly more capable and reliable than any other.

^ this dude and his gf went to four separate locations with Superchargers and v2 chargers. They were all broken. This is a market problem. Calling Tesla a monopoly over supercharging because their network isn't a price of garbage is a bad call imo.