Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments

KickBassColonyDrop t1_ja9zmef wrote

Tesla has a disproportionate monopoly because the legacy market was dismissive and neglectful, believing that BEVs had no future and the cost of transition was too exorbitant relative to shareholder interests.

Tesla on multiple investor and earnings calls admitted that they banked on the legacies taking Tesla seriously with each new advancement that they made, and acting like woken dragons to drive Tesla out of the business.

Time and again, competition never came. But now, Tesla is basically the 747 on the runway about to open up full throttle on all 4 engines and all the legacies are at the gate looking through the window in fear as to what it means if that plane takes off.

The IRA's purpose is to bail these companies out, but similar to how AWS dominates the world, I expect that Tesla will own ~50-60% of the total market share out to 2040. First movers advantage is like dumping NOS into your car's tank. You're gonna pull some serious Gs, but if nobody takes you seriously, you'll pull so far ahead that even if you slip up, the probability that you won't pull first is unlikely.

Lastly, Tesla spend the last 10 years building out their supercharger network because they recognized the importance of that network to the entire BEV platform ecosystem. It's not that they have a monopoly here. It's just that, their superchargers are vastly more capable and reliable than any other.

^ this dude and his gf went to four separate locations with Superchargers and v2 chargers. They were all broken. This is a market problem. Calling Tesla a monopoly over supercharging because their network isn't a price of garbage is a bad call imo.