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nerfyies t1_j8jr6o2 wrote

Reply to comment by ArcadesRed in EU approves 2035 ban on new fossil fuel car sales by chrisdh79

Your math is way off, first of all the supply side for materials only needs to match the number of new cars added every year which is 12-15M cars every year. Last year a bit more than 2M electric cars where registered in Europe so a rough estimate is that supply for batteries needs to increase by 700% by 2035, around 20% per year increase for 12 years which is achievable if mining is industrialised further.

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ArcadesRed t1_j8k2kte wrote

I wrote a long response but reddit made it disappear. Things of note were only 1.3 mil were EV, the rest were hybrid. The last three ish years are the results of a long leadup in production capacity with insane production numbers 50%+ higher every year. And a few other things. It was mostly saying that I went too high but your is too low. I did screw up using total EV's and not looking at the last few years production.

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Financial-Employ5634 t1_j8jzwpy wrote

Your missing a key point here, when you say mining your talking about active mines. There aren’t enough active mines to begin with. Do you know how long it takes to get a new mine approved, get the exploration done to see if it’s even a feasible site, and then begin the actual mining? 15 years.

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ben7337 t1_j8ky4gp wrote

So the current mines are at 100% theoretical capacity and there's no more places in the globe that could be used to open new mines, and you're saying in spite of the constantly growing demand over the last couple decades, nations across the globe haven't been looking for economical sources to open new mines? I don't know much about the industry, but that sounds pretty unlikely to me, though besides child labor horrors, the only info I can find on new mines is that the US just opened it's first one in 2022

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