Comments
Snoo93079 t1_j1c29sq wrote
I don't there are many who don't agree that most of the large tech firms were pretty bloated post-covid.
[deleted] t1_j193307 wrote
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grog23 t1_j194nk6 wrote
That couldn’t be further from the truth. The US media is overwhelmingly negative
Icumed4U t1_j1adzrd wrote
Have you checked this sub? Every post is negative.
Evil_killer_bob t1_j1afhk2 wrote
Have you checked most of Reddit?
Icumed4U t1_j1ahxwe wrote
Honestly what form of media isn't just negativity now?
Famous-Somewhere9191 t1_j1asr5q wrote
the_good_time_mouse t1_j1845i9 wrote
This feels like tradable information.
turntabletennis t1_j194us8 wrote
It feels like incorrect information.
the_good_time_mouse t1_j195jrj wrote
That's my point.
Unless you mean that Amazon is actually anticipating a hard landing.
Broad_Bag_5526 t1_j198p2i wrote
Part of me thinks that the rich just want to push this idea to scare people into selling their assets so they can buy them up just like 2008.
chalbersma t1_j19aah9 wrote
Actually that's exactly what Wall Street firms are saying in the financial press.
Broad_Bag_5526 t1_j19b0gw wrote
Sorry. What do you mean?
chalbersma t1_j19zewu wrote
There have been like 40-50 articles over the last month citing funds managers who state they have cash in the sidelines and are waiting for "retail capitulation" to mark the bottom of the crash before reinvesting. Here is one that was in my browser history. But they've been pretty regularly coming out the last 6-8 months or so.
mikebalzich t1_j19o17i wrote
Huh? A claim of a softer recession would drive people to hold their assets, no?
Broad_Bag_5526 t1_j19ocae wrote
Oh yes this counters those fears. My point was that all this talk of recession just seems like too much to me.
cusmilie t1_j187kz1 wrote
Nothing is “leaked” out of Amazon without them knowing.
tormunds_beard t1_j188w4s wrote
Yeah this sounds like a clumsy way to try to increase consumer confidence.
Seat-Life t1_j18a8bf wrote
3 days before Christmas? No way! /s
cusmilie t1_j195anl wrote
Bingo - my husband works for corporate and nobody know what’s going on into the hear about it in the news. Internal memos always come after the news like “you might have heard so and so” and then they give their response.
uruk--hai t1_j1co27s wrote
That's just bad policy
LankaRunAway t1_j1cw4sy wrote
Also, why the fuck are we trusting the economic forecast of Amazon?
Please just don’t say because they are a big corporation with a lot of money just provide sources.
cusmilie t1_j1d5kgz wrote
I don’t know why people would trust them. Maybe because they think they are a big corporation and have big data/numbers. Everyone thinks I’m joking when I say this, but if you want to find out how the economy is doing, ask a hairdresser or see how many cars are outside the strip club.
[deleted] t1_j18401p wrote
Still they layoff recklessly
[deleted] t1_j18ziwm wrote
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mrpoops t1_j18mpll wrote
The economy was never going to crash. Conservative media outlets like Fox have been pushing that narrative since Biden won. At the time they said they were gonna do it, and then they did it.
Midterms are over, economy is mostly healthy which is positive, especially considering the ripples from the pandemic which were always gonna happen…
They’ll focus more on some other thing now. Seems Like they’re ramping up to do Hunter’s laptop…again…
[deleted] t1_j18qhgr wrote
FoxNews isn't the only one talking recession, they all are. Left or Right the media lives off fear mongering.
BufferUnderpants t1_j19hl24 wrote
Since when is it controversial that jacking up interest rates moves the needle towards recession in countries? It's a real risk, it's not all conspiracies made in dimly lit rooms, it's pretty well accepted that when you constrain monetary supply, you risk recession.
mrpoops t1_j18rml9 wrote
I called out Fox specifically because they said the quiet part out loud right after Biden won. Like, the week after they were talking about switching gears and starting to prioritize “economic anxiety” stories.
Trump’s lack of covid response and subsequent gaslighting cratered every market, they’ll still tell you Trump was good for the economy. Biden’s president elect for like a week and they were already talking about bitching nonstop about the economy.
[deleted] t1_j18s8y2 wrote
Honestly I think you're wrong here. The election was in 2020, the talk of recession started this summer due to aggressive rate hikes from the Fed. There's really no connection here. In fact many of the current Fed members were nominated by Trump.
A_Gent_4Tseven t1_j193ksv wrote
People have been fearing an upcoming possibility of a recession since around 2018 dude. It’s not some new thing it’s just something that actually came about because we had a damn pandemic, crazy government spending to try and fight fake election bullshit, numerous issues with other countries… we just had a banner fucking “year” these past 2-3 to really send us down this path extra hard.
[deleted] t1_j194hjk wrote
Well sure if you predict a recession EVERY year then eventually you'll be right..
A_Gent_4Tseven t1_j195hld wrote
They didn’t every year. They specifically brought up the implication of a possible outbreak in the future and how it may impact the economy. Trump disbanded it the minute he got into office because it had Obama attached to it… it was like one of his main things he did that caused Covid to be(more of)an issue. It wasn’t for specifically Covid, but they tossed it out because it wasn’t Trump Brand lol. It’s A HUGE FACTOR.
mrpoops t1_j18tugs wrote
The Dow lost 1/3 of its value in one day in the spring of 2020.
The markets didn’t begin to recover until the day California announced lockdowns. They wanted a plan and got gaslighting, when people saw a plan things started coming back a bit.
Every bit of economic pain stems from Trump’s initial covid fuckups, and the war his daddy started.
BufferUnderpants t1_j19mwx1 wrote
I think you’re omitting the part where like a trillion dollar was injected into the economy as productivity dropped
That was going to cause inflation inevitably, it was a trade off, we traded making the lockdown viable for households for inflation, grinding the economy to a halt was never going to come for free
mrpoops t1_j1afs0b wrote
Imagine we had a president who spent January through March of 2020 preparing remediations and bringing the force of the government together to ease things proactively instead of gaslighting and calling it a flu and telling people it would be over in a week.
The wealthiest nation in the history of the planet should be able to absorb a pandemic without the economy short circuiting.
BufferUnderpants t1_j1ahu4m wrote
Yeah Trump blew it, as did the rest of the West, but you can't just flex your way into printing a trillion dollars and suffering no inflation, that's very, very, very naive, the US doesn't have magic powers.
mrpoops t1_j1ajgtk wrote
All I’m getting at is it wouldn’t need to be a trillion if we prepared a bit. A couple months of good preparation and coordination with major employers and stuff like that would’ve saved countless billions and a lot of lives. It also would’ve signaled the federal government has a handle on stuff which reduces anxiety and makes a massive sell off less likely.
The markets started to crash on a Monday. That weekend right before and late in the week before it first started to crash it started getting really obvious shit was out of control, and meanwhile Trump is giving pressers straight up lying about it.
How much wealth was wiped out then? Or more accurately, how much wealth was transferred from everyone wiped out to the rich? When the markets lost 1/3 their value and took time to recover….
After that it was other shocks, like supply chain stuff and the Ukraine war. But the root of it all was that first massive crash. The biggest in history…
At a minimum without a massive crash we’d be better equipped to handle inflation.
BufferUnderpants t1_j1ao43z wrote
But in that timeline would the lockdowns have happened? Shutting down the economy and giving people money to compensate for the money their frozen jobs couldn't provide was going to cause inflation, 100% guaranteed.
Them's the breaks, I think it was the right choice but that was the inevitable consequence. We turned the sliders of the economy in the way that causes inflation to occur.
Stock market crash or not, this is an issue of money supply vs supply of everything else, way more fundamental.
mrpoops t1_j1aorwv wrote
I don’t think the government spending a trillion dollars caused inflation. The US can afford that.
And not as much changed as you think during lockdowns. Our GDP was roughly 21 trillion in 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021. It didn’t really shrink due to lockdowns…
BufferUnderpants t1_j1aqaae wrote
Man this is weird, you really think the US can superpower its way out of basic economics and that there's some stab-in-the-back kind of situation that caused inflation in the way economists would say caused inflation in any case.
Also it wasn't Government spending, it was expansion of money supply, different things, if it was taxes or reserves spent on public works it'd look completely different.
mrpoops t1_j1au0as wrote
Printing a trillion dollars and handing it out like candy isn’t nearly enough to cause 10% inflation in a country with a 21 trillion dollar economy.
The GDP stayed roughly the same during the pandemic as it had been previously, so productivity and economic activity didn’t really change that much and aren’t factors either.
Now, a war in Europe and global pandemic supply chain issues after the largest market crash in history? That might do it…
BufferUnderpants t1_j1avy9v wrote
> Printing a trillion dollars and handing it out like candy isn’t nearly enough to cause 10% inflation in a country with a 21 trillion dollar economy.
How do you reach that conclusion? I'm not sure it's 1-to-1 extra cash on hand and GDP.
Also, don't get me wrong, supply issues are part of the equation, which is also why lockdowns+aid was going to be a double whammy, but it only adds up. Again, I think this was the right choice, but dude, didn't your politicians warn you?
I've seen estimates of the war in Europe adding 1.5% percent points of inflation
It's a combination of internal and external factors, but pumping a trillion dollars into a halted economy is an important one, supply chains would have had trouble keeping up with the demand even with things rolling as usual.
mrpoops t1_j1b4zbb wrote
https://cdn.factcheck.org/UploadedFiles/12-month-percentage-chan.png
Russia was the gas station for Europe and a big chunk of Asia. When fuel prices go up it’s more expensive to do everything.
I’m not exactly sure how a couple 1400 checks to everyone 2 years ago would keep inflation at 10%…
If you flood the economy with free cash and it’s causing inflation there would need to be a corresponding increase in consumer spending.
That didn’t happen.
BufferUnderpants t1_j1b6y4o wrote
Alright dude, whatever, you win, there's alternative facts and theories that the establishment keeps secret from everyone as to why inflation happens.
mrpoops t1_j1b7zbo wrote
It’s not complicated. The US sending out $1400 checks 2 years ago didn’t create inflation in other places, like Europe.
A global market collapse, (mostly Chinese) supply chain issues and a war in Europe that’s still happening are way more obvious answers….
I dunno what to tell ya. Economists are biased and say whatever matches their worldview. Bottom line is there needs to be a mechanism for this stuff…and giving a couple grand to people years ago now isn’t gonna cause 10% inflation now, across the entire western world…
PaddlingTiger t1_j1bshk8 wrote
No, the Dow absolutely did NOT lose ⅓ of its value in one day. That’s ridiculous.
phdoofus t1_j19mkli wrote
They said that Obama too. Before he was elected and for 8 years after that. He was going to 'ruin the economy....soon!'
aquarain t1_j18tcmt wrote
I disagree. With inflation approaching 10% and looking to get sticky the potential for a hard crash was there. The Fed was slow to react but seems to be on the money with the intervention. Having seen how they handle these things for a long time, such a measured response was never guaranteed. They could have hosed it up and they seem to have not, so far.
mrpoops t1_j18urtr wrote
We have full employment and wages went up some. If inflation is at 10% and wages go up 5% then the real world economic impact of inflation is only roughly 5%.
So…no. It wasn’t gonna crash the economy.
aquarain t1_j18y7kz wrote
What you describe is "stagflation". We tried it in the 80's and yes it will crush the economy. Also, 5 points is absolutely brutal to the poor.
mrpoops t1_j190dhn wrote
Yeah, it’s absolutely bad for the poor. But so is basically everything else. The world is bad for the poor.
Inflation isn’t good. But post-pandemic economic ripples and a war in Europe are the root cause. Not an underlying economic problem like 2007-2009.
aquarain t1_j193pht wrote
Letting inflation get out of control is absolutely an "underlying economic problem" that can take years of austerity to repair.
Your focus seems to be on conservative media blaming Biden for having to cure the economic problems that began and sprung out of decisions made before he took office. On that I agree. He was set up. Inflation had been rising and accelerating since May of 2020, before he was even elected. It was further aggravated by a great deal of helicopter money before he sat in the big chair. It's not his fault. And frankly getting inflation under control isn't to his credit either, except from discipline to not push for more stimulus in an inflationary economy. That job is mainly handled by the Federal Reserve and he didn't appoint them. But Presidents get credit or blame for the economy anyway.
It's definitely post pandemic ripples and war in Europe. And QE+ZIRP. We seem to be transitioning to more of a saver economy now than an excess credit consumption one. I think long term that's best for everyone.
mrpoops t1_j196q94 wrote
Sounds like we mostly agree. Merry christmas dude.
thedaidai t1_j18xhbm wrote
Except higher wages tend to fuel acceleration of inflation. Yes, it absolutely could have.
EDIT: lol at the downvotes. It's called the Wage-Price Spiral. Look it up dumbasses it is a very basic macroeconomics concept
standarduser2 t1_j18wkz0 wrote
Inflation is not approaching 10% in the US though.
aquarain t1_j18xm1n wrote
True, it isn't. But it was. It peaked at 9.06% yoy in June as the interest rate hikes beginning April started to have an impact.
https://www.rateinflation.com/inflation-rate/usa-inflation-rate/
standarduser2 t1_j19f1bd wrote
Approaching makes it sound like actively rising to 10%, which is factually untrue.
Keep down voting and spreading misinformation if you like.
aquarain t1_j19hqzj wrote
On an annualized rate June would have been 10%. You don't go from 7.5 to 9 in 6 months, from 5.3 the year before, from 0.6 the year before that without realizing that this is a trend that leads to 10 and far beyond.
standarduser2 t1_j1af7wj wrote
At what point do you believe the US will be far beyond 10% annual inflation?
aquarain t1_j1ahnrq wrote
I think I see your objection. It's the grammar time machine.
>With inflation approaching 10% and looking to get sticky the potential for a hard crash was there.
The placement of that "was" makes it difficult to tell that the former tense applies to the clause before it. English is tricky that way. Let's break down the sentence another way for you, and add in the supplemental information from the context since.
In June of this year annual inflation reached 9.06% over the year before, and the month to month increase suggested an annualized rate of inflation of 10%. Having accelerated at an increasing rate for the 26 months prior, from an annual rate below 0.2% to over 9%, it would have been reasonable at that time to expect this trend to continue without an upper bound until some change was undertaken, making a hard crash conclusion increasingly likely at that time. Fortunately, belatedly, the Federal Reserve Board had begun hiking interest rates and announcing an end to unlimited mortgage buying a couple of months earlier and so the inflation began to ease. Now with the pressure of inflation easing, the trend reversed and only limited impacts to the jobs economy a hard crash looks unlikely at this time and trending less likely as time goes on.
Is that better?
kbig22432 t1_j18poq5 wrote
If the economy was never going to crash, then why are banks having such a hard time?
mrpoops t1_j18q2l3 wrote
I work at a bank. Mortgages are way down because interest rates are up to ease inflation. The bank I work for is treating it like temporary pain, they aren’t hunkering down or anything. They’re gonna push savings and checking accounts and other traditional stuff in 2023 and wait for the fed to ease rates.
Long term numbers all look somewhere between decent and really good, actually.
kbig22432 t1_j18qdvu wrote
Thanks for responding! Good to know your bank has a plan for this.
What do you think of this:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/bcreg20221014a.htm
What might cause the FED to be looking into this possibility?
mrpoops t1_j18qsg6 wrote
Totally normal. They have a calendar filled with this stuff:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/regreform/proposals-for-comments.htm
kbig22432 t1_j18ss0x wrote
Makes sense to ask the citizens for ideas to proactively address potential problems. The public, contrary to what the news would have you believe, isn’t just filled with idiots haha. Thank you again for responding.
I am curious what your thoughts are on the Dollar Endgame theory predicting hyperinflation in the near future.
Obviously this is an involved question, so feel free to tell me to pound sand if you want haha. It’s not often I have the ear of someone in banking, might as well get your perspective!
aquarain t1_j190261 wrote
Some banks make money off of mortgage originations. Somebody buys a house and they write the mortgage and get a healthy spiff. Then they turn around and sell the mortgage before the ink is dry and make bank.
No mortgages, that money is gone. When mortgage rates go up as fast as they have there stops being new mortgages. When they go up higher than they have been for a decade the refinance mortgage business completely halts.
Vegowolf t1_j194f1j wrote
Amazon have many professional economists working for them in their delivery trucks!
Material-Comment-847 t1_j18lpnk wrote
Pure hopium😂
Tex-Rob t1_j18vkp0 wrote
Think about it though, I think they are right. We don’t love Amazon, so we wish this was false, but look at it objectively. Have you noticed a downturn in Amazon deliveries in your area? Amazon is the new Walmart, full of things people need at low prices, so people will maybe even go there more in a downturn.
aquarain t1_j19v8ef wrote
Amazon comes to my house more often than I do. Several times more.
phdoofus t1_j19mfmo wrote
Meanwhile:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/bezos-inflation-amazon-black-friday-b2226729.html
​
Mr Bezos warned Americans last month to ‘batten down the hatches’ in preparation for an economic downturn
WhatTheZuck420 t1_j18ux11 wrote
Well, alrighty then. I want to see a cage match with Jeffy Bezos and Jamie Dimon.
gabbagabbahey38 t1_j198avx wrote
$AMZN hit 52W lows today...
aquarain t1_j19v128 wrote
Tech stocks taking a beating all year.
gabbagabbahey38 t1_j1a3249 wrote
Right, so now is the time to buy it...
QuirkyAd2001 t1_j19swtw wrote
This is how you hedge....
https://www.businessinsider.com/leaked-report-amazon-cost-cutting-next-year-layoffs-2022-12
StupidPointless t1_j19tf9i wrote
Weirdly, I believe Amazon's AI more than any economist.
I almost said "trust" but I don't trust Amazon. But I do believe this prediction.
kiwisrkool t1_j19x1fc wrote
Why sack 10,000 then?
biscuitsandrum t1_j1cj8tp wrote
10k out of 1.5m, working on what seems to be products they saw no future in. Also as mentioned elsewhere in this thread, Corp in amazon grew by 2.5-4x (depending on team) in the last 3 years for projected future growth, which doesn't seem to be materializing as they planned.
RedHawkChop t1_j1a4hrt wrote
My wife works at Amazon. Their employees think they are the most brilliant people to grace the earth. I assure you they have the same ratio of intelligence of any other corporation. 10% rockstars, 70% coast, and 20% are crap or are not doing their job at all for various reasons.
In summary, they don't know wtf they are talking about.
Lethalgeek t1_j1a5mkg wrote
Why is this propaganda piece up voted?
[deleted] t1_j1aydd0 wrote
[removed]
dirty2140 t1_j1a0le7 wrote
who the fuck would listen to amazon about global economic information...other than sales are down I give no fucks what they have to say about macro economics. yes the sales information is useful but I am not taking their "soft landing" as anything substantial.
curly_as_fuck t1_j1adbzk wrote
Really? Because I have more insider information there’s longer hiring freezes and more layoffs coming from Amazon.
biscuitsandrum t1_j1cjh16 wrote
It's not insider info if it's 1m+ employees being told about it.
They're trying to gear up into a leaner company, they are fat as fuck right now (like me and many fellow redditors).
Zeduca t1_j193r4w wrote
I am really sorry for Amazon. During the pandemic, there was a huge growth of online retail. Who would have thought the pandemic can go away and not persist. Now that pandemic is going away, online retail reduces, and the world is hit further with Russia atrocities, bringing a recession to reduce retail trade, including inline sales. Two whammys.
StandardResearcher30 t1_j18lpro wrote
My bank account and this shit job market disagrees
aquarain t1_j18n5j6 wrote
??? It has been years since full employment here. Where are you that the job market sucks?
StandardResearcher30 t1_j19m8gl wrote
*i don’t want to work for a shit wage at Amazon or instacart, or for anybody who is taking a larger cut than me for being there. Fixed it
aquarain t1_j19o6mj wrote
>Amazon or instacart
I certainly wouldn't recommend that. But I doubt there's a school district in the country that's not hiring drivers, offering paid training. For just one example.
StandardResearcher30 t1_j19pph8 wrote
That sounds like a horrible job that I’m not interested in. I’m a musician, an artist, an actor, and an activist.
aquarain t1_j19s2va wrote
>a musician, an artist, an actor, and an activist.
Ah. Around here we just call that "unemployed".
BustEarly t1_j1d31p9 wrote
Nah this person shouldn’t be lumped in with the unfortunate. They’re clearly mentally unwell and don’t speak for anybody else but themselves and their dogshit attitude.
StandardResearcher30 t1_j19sngv wrote
And you’re a giant piece of shit who beats women and hates minorities
StupidPointless t1_j19thsn wrote
Anecdotal evidence is not evidence
StandardResearcher30 t1_j19u378 wrote
Shut the fuck up
StupidPointless t1_j19vcwq wrote
Ah, I see your point. Well reasoned. I apologize
TheCriticalAmerican t1_j182wmk wrote
>Based on recent data showing continued labor demand and wage increases, Amazon also anticipates a soft landing for the US economy, a term used to describe a slow-growth period that avoids a recession, the internal report said.
Ugh... This is the worst way to make forecasts: just extend a trend line. Seems like this is what Amazon did.
Expensive-Yellow-104 t1_j18k0xm wrote
They’ve got in-house consultants and basically a whole own investment bank I really doubt this
aquarain t1_j18nea4 wrote
Also real time streaming hard factual data on global consumer spending second only to Walmart.
aquarain t1_j18k7sq wrote
Amazon has access to one of the world's largest supercomputer clusters with considerable AI resources. They employ world class financial analysts and economists to help guide their capital investments. I sincerely doubt they're up there in their alien balls pod stretching a graph with a sharpie.
schrodingerinthehat t1_j18w8ew wrote
Which they used to invest big in Rivian and tank their stock on the reported loss.
I'm not saying what you said isn't true, but that alone does not guarantee making the right bets. Certainly helps, but not guarantees.
Words_Are_Hrad t1_j19fr7k wrote
Ahh they are different sizes just like mine!
LorthNeeda t1_j18cnre wrote
Corporations use the constant media doom and gloom recession talk to justify their layoffs to increase short-term profits. It’s pathetic and transparent af.