mrpoops t1_j18rml9 wrote
Reply to comment by [deleted] in Leaked internal document shows Amazon expects a soft landing for the US economy and little chance of a recession, a rosier outlook than many other forecasters by Sorin61
I called out Fox specifically because they said the quiet part out loud right after Biden won. Like, the week after they were talking about switching gears and starting to prioritize “economic anxiety” stories.
Trump’s lack of covid response and subsequent gaslighting cratered every market, they’ll still tell you Trump was good for the economy. Biden’s president elect for like a week and they were already talking about bitching nonstop about the economy.
[deleted] t1_j18s8y2 wrote
Honestly I think you're wrong here. The election was in 2020, the talk of recession started this summer due to aggressive rate hikes from the Fed. There's really no connection here. In fact many of the current Fed members were nominated by Trump.
A_Gent_4Tseven t1_j193ksv wrote
People have been fearing an upcoming possibility of a recession since around 2018 dude. It’s not some new thing it’s just something that actually came about because we had a damn pandemic, crazy government spending to try and fight fake election bullshit, numerous issues with other countries… we just had a banner fucking “year” these past 2-3 to really send us down this path extra hard.
[deleted] t1_j194hjk wrote
Well sure if you predict a recession EVERY year then eventually you'll be right..
A_Gent_4Tseven t1_j195hld wrote
They didn’t every year. They specifically brought up the implication of a possible outbreak in the future and how it may impact the economy. Trump disbanded it the minute he got into office because it had Obama attached to it… it was like one of his main things he did that caused Covid to be(more of)an issue. It wasn’t for specifically Covid, but they tossed it out because it wasn’t Trump Brand lol. It’s A HUGE FACTOR.
mrpoops t1_j18tugs wrote
The Dow lost 1/3 of its value in one day in the spring of 2020.
The markets didn’t begin to recover until the day California announced lockdowns. They wanted a plan and got gaslighting, when people saw a plan things started coming back a bit.
Every bit of economic pain stems from Trump’s initial covid fuckups, and the war his daddy started.
BufferUnderpants t1_j19mwx1 wrote
I think you’re omitting the part where like a trillion dollar was injected into the economy as productivity dropped
That was going to cause inflation inevitably, it was a trade off, we traded making the lockdown viable for households for inflation, grinding the economy to a halt was never going to come for free
mrpoops t1_j1afs0b wrote
Imagine we had a president who spent January through March of 2020 preparing remediations and bringing the force of the government together to ease things proactively instead of gaslighting and calling it a flu and telling people it would be over in a week.
The wealthiest nation in the history of the planet should be able to absorb a pandemic without the economy short circuiting.
BufferUnderpants t1_j1ahu4m wrote
Yeah Trump blew it, as did the rest of the West, but you can't just flex your way into printing a trillion dollars and suffering no inflation, that's very, very, very naive, the US doesn't have magic powers.
mrpoops t1_j1ajgtk wrote
All I’m getting at is it wouldn’t need to be a trillion if we prepared a bit. A couple months of good preparation and coordination with major employers and stuff like that would’ve saved countless billions and a lot of lives. It also would’ve signaled the federal government has a handle on stuff which reduces anxiety and makes a massive sell off less likely.
The markets started to crash on a Monday. That weekend right before and late in the week before it first started to crash it started getting really obvious shit was out of control, and meanwhile Trump is giving pressers straight up lying about it.
How much wealth was wiped out then? Or more accurately, how much wealth was transferred from everyone wiped out to the rich? When the markets lost 1/3 their value and took time to recover….
After that it was other shocks, like supply chain stuff and the Ukraine war. But the root of it all was that first massive crash. The biggest in history…
At a minimum without a massive crash we’d be better equipped to handle inflation.
BufferUnderpants t1_j1ao43z wrote
But in that timeline would the lockdowns have happened? Shutting down the economy and giving people money to compensate for the money their frozen jobs couldn't provide was going to cause inflation, 100% guaranteed.
Them's the breaks, I think it was the right choice but that was the inevitable consequence. We turned the sliders of the economy in the way that causes inflation to occur.
Stock market crash or not, this is an issue of money supply vs supply of everything else, way more fundamental.
mrpoops t1_j1aorwv wrote
I don’t think the government spending a trillion dollars caused inflation. The US can afford that.
And not as much changed as you think during lockdowns. Our GDP was roughly 21 trillion in 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021. It didn’t really shrink due to lockdowns…
BufferUnderpants t1_j1aqaae wrote
Man this is weird, you really think the US can superpower its way out of basic economics and that there's some stab-in-the-back kind of situation that caused inflation in the way economists would say caused inflation in any case.
Also it wasn't Government spending, it was expansion of money supply, different things, if it was taxes or reserves spent on public works it'd look completely different.
mrpoops t1_j1au0as wrote
Printing a trillion dollars and handing it out like candy isn’t nearly enough to cause 10% inflation in a country with a 21 trillion dollar economy.
The GDP stayed roughly the same during the pandemic as it had been previously, so productivity and economic activity didn’t really change that much and aren’t factors either.
Now, a war in Europe and global pandemic supply chain issues after the largest market crash in history? That might do it…
BufferUnderpants t1_j1avy9v wrote
> Printing a trillion dollars and handing it out like candy isn’t nearly enough to cause 10% inflation in a country with a 21 trillion dollar economy.
How do you reach that conclusion? I'm not sure it's 1-to-1 extra cash on hand and GDP.
Also, don't get me wrong, supply issues are part of the equation, which is also why lockdowns+aid was going to be a double whammy, but it only adds up. Again, I think this was the right choice, but dude, didn't your politicians warn you?
I've seen estimates of the war in Europe adding 1.5% percent points of inflation
It's a combination of internal and external factors, but pumping a trillion dollars into a halted economy is an important one, supply chains would have had trouble keeping up with the demand even with things rolling as usual.
mrpoops t1_j1b4zbb wrote
https://cdn.factcheck.org/UploadedFiles/12-month-percentage-chan.png
Russia was the gas station for Europe and a big chunk of Asia. When fuel prices go up it’s more expensive to do everything.
I’m not exactly sure how a couple 1400 checks to everyone 2 years ago would keep inflation at 10%…
If you flood the economy with free cash and it’s causing inflation there would need to be a corresponding increase in consumer spending.
That didn’t happen.
BufferUnderpants t1_j1b6y4o wrote
Alright dude, whatever, you win, there's alternative facts and theories that the establishment keeps secret from everyone as to why inflation happens.
mrpoops t1_j1b7zbo wrote
It’s not complicated. The US sending out $1400 checks 2 years ago didn’t create inflation in other places, like Europe.
A global market collapse, (mostly Chinese) supply chain issues and a war in Europe that’s still happening are way more obvious answers….
I dunno what to tell ya. Economists are biased and say whatever matches their worldview. Bottom line is there needs to be a mechanism for this stuff…and giving a couple grand to people years ago now isn’t gonna cause 10% inflation now, across the entire western world…
PaddlingTiger t1_j1bshk8 wrote
No, the Dow absolutely did NOT lose ⅓ of its value in one day. That’s ridiculous.
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