I mean, if you paid attention to the boring stuff in international affairs and not just follow whatever is trending on Reddit or Twitter ("Oh Amerikkka warmonger, hurr durr CIA and 5 Eyez bad, RuSsIA nOt iNvaDing U just wAnT uS to obEy the eLiTes!"), you'd find that security analysts have been quite concerned about Russian activity being on the rise for years now. This show is just taking what's already in place and riffing off of it.

For example, someone like Peter Zeihan, who is more of a 'pop' geopolitical analyst, even correctly predicted 2022 as the invasion year back in 2014ish due to this year being likely the last year before Russia's male population began declining. They're all in, at this point, and probably are willing to throw a few hundred thousand men away.

In that time, Russia's been releasing material about how the Ukrainian identity is tied to the Russian identity and how they needed to be together as one identity. Just go out and read what actually gets put in document and you'll find that this war and Russia's list of justifications aren't too surprising.