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scurvydog-uldum t1_iu87qex wrote

This isn't really surprising.

This is the most basic predicted effect of climate change.

The higher latitudes increase temperature much more than the sub-tropical latitudes, so the air mixing east of the rockies will on average have a much smaller temperature differential.

smaller temperature difference means fewer and weaker tornadoes.

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Danielnrg OP t1_iu88zxv wrote

Forgive me for seeming obtuse, but I was under the impression that weather extremes would increase due to climate change. I've seen several people on the news ask if the recent hurricane in Florida was linked to climate change, and NWS experts say it wasn't. I'm getting mixed messages. You're saying that the planet will slowly die... but we'll get less tornadoes as a result?

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jedimika t1_iu8ab2z wrote

Look at the question a little bit different.

The US has more tornados than any other country, 1100-1200 per year. Canada is #2 with about 100 a year. Then conditions for our massive tornado count are a unique balance of weather patterns. As climate changes that balance could weaken/ break.

And while it would mean that this specific weather event becomes less common, others will become more prevalent. And the big hit is areas not used to certain events could get more. Texas has a hard time with blizzards, Maine has never seen a heatwave in the 110s.

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NinDiGu t1_iu8wbss wrote

> The US has more tornados than any other country, 1100-1200 per year.

Interestingly, the UK has more tornados than the US according to QI, but they are just much weaker.

As I rarely trust the fact checking on QI, as they almost always are wrong on facts about my area of expertise, I cannot imagine it to be true that GB has more tornados than the US, but they said on QI that there were more tornados in GB annually than the US.

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bearsnchairs t1_iu8xatu wrote

It may say that the UK has more when normalized for land area, but that is a silly stat. The US is far far larger than the UK. The US has far more overall tornadoes.

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NinDiGu t1_iu8ycnb wrote

That may have been it. I always have a cup of salt handy when watching the show.

I enjoy the show because in general I love panel shows, and there are lots of QI episodes to watch, but man the elves get so many things wrong, and Stephen even mocks people who know things. The specific examples that irked me was when Stephen Fry doubled down on his mistakes about German to a German speaker, and when he mocked Sean Locke for the interesting fact that banana plants are mobile (referred to as walking), which at least he was corrected on during the same show.

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dlyselxicssuck t1_iu94g5d wrote

In less populated areas tornadoes can go unnoticed especially if there are no trained weather spotters. Sometimes concealed by rain or night they probably miss a lot of them.

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padizzledonk t1_iu8fes5 wrote

This is like the cynical politician bringing a snowball to a meeting about global warming lol and why "global warming" fell out of favor even though it's true on average

Its a matter of WHERE.....Some places will get warmer, some will get wetter, some will get drier, Climate Change is far more accurate

As other people have said Tornadoes are caused by differences in temperature, we have some crazy conditions in the US for Tornadoes, we have hot air and cold air slamming into each other across the country and that causes a lot of Tornadoes, as that air temperature evens out there is less chaos to cause those vortices to form

We say there is going to be (and we see already) an increase in "severe weather events" but that doesn't necessarily mean "More Tornadoes" in America but it will mean more massive flooding, more wild thunderstorms, bigger Hurricanes, longer droughts, snowstorms in places that never got them and no snow in places where it always snows and it might very well mean that somewhere else might get more Tornadoes as things shift around....things may calm down in some places and ramp up in others, but its going to change everywhere

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HalobenderFWT t1_iu939jq wrote

Technically, while temperature difference can be a factor in the cause of a tornado - that’s like saying dry wood is a cause for a forest fire.

The temperature difference is the cause for the storms (along with moisture, and instability), that can potentially cause a tornado, but you’re not going to have a tornado without a strong wind shear.

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padizzledonk t1_iu9a0vo wrote

>but you’re not going to have a tornado without a strong wind shear.

Fully get what you are saying, this is just a more accurate "in the weeds" extrapolation of what I'm saying because that serious wind sheer is caused by big temperature differences

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Red_Meridian t1_iu94w4c wrote

The real truth is that we don’t know what will happen with climate change. A decade ago who would have predicted Portland would get hotter than Las Vegas has ever been.

The system is chaotic and unknowable.

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Poke-Party t1_iuaixzz wrote

Hurricane and tornado formation occur on completely unrelated time and size scales along with the processes that go into them.

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Celtictussle t1_iu9cyqy wrote

>Forgive me for seeming obtuse, but I was under the impression that weather extremes would increase due to climate change.

The myth that temperatures swings are more extreme on both sides only serves a very specific fallacy. Most of the world is getting warmer most of the year.

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horsemagicians t1_iu9vjyv wrote

Not all storms are built the same. Tornadoes need warm air and wind shear. The latter is expected to decrease with climate change resulting in weaker tornadoes. Tornado season will get longer but there’ll be fewer strong ones.

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Brock_Way t1_iuau6vc wrote

We will all die due to habitat destruction long before climate issues.

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scurvydog-uldum t1_iu9n9em wrote

Nobody is saying the planet will die. The planet will do just fine; our coastal cities might be underwater, but the planet won't care about that.

The IPCC says the only weather extremes linked to climate change are increased high temperature records outside the tropics and subtropics, and more heat waves.

The IPCC specifically excludes things like increased rain, increased drought, stronger winter storms, stronger summer storms, etc. So any time you hear some activist claiming weather is caused by climate change, know that the mainstream scientists have said it's not true.

The oddest prediction was decreased land-falling hurricanes in the US, but right after that prediction was published we had the longest period in history of no major hurricanes hitting the US.

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Only_Reindeer9968 t1_iu8a635 wrote

Honestly feels like bait. Anyways simple terms tornadoes are caused by the differences in air temps, if All the air is hot (it’s all hot because the ozone layer has been destroyed(this is where the climate change part comes in for your obtuseness.))there is no difference to cause the disruption that is the tornado 🌪

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Danielnrg OP t1_iu8b5ts wrote

I don't know what bait you're talking about, but your answer combined with the answer below seems to explain it pretty well

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Danielnrg OP t1_iu8co96 wrote

I take that back, the answer below is now a climate denier. I have now learned that saying things like "the answer below" is inadvisable on Reddit.

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OldWolf2 t1_iub283l wrote

The ozone layer hasn't been destroyed . It was damaged by CFCs in the 1970s and is recovering well since they were banned in the 1980s.

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vahntitrio t1_iubwaoa wrote

Temperature difference has little effect - it's wind shear. Wind shear (particularly in the hot months) has really declined.

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scurvydog-uldum t1_iubwfkm wrote

caught me a bit drunk. we talking tornadoes or hurricanes?

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vahntitrio t1_iubxvxd wrote

Wind shear is needed for tornadoes. That's why peak tornado season is in spring, not the summer.

Another factor is that some areas get so hot and humid these days, when there is ample wind shear storms grow upscale too quickly because of the abundance of energy. Large tornadoes particularly will not happen after storms merge into a line.

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[deleted] t1_iu9qejt wrote

[deleted]

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scurvydog-uldum t1_iua0kmx wrote

It's like we live on different planets. The truth I know is the opposite of what you wrote.

Fewer and weaker tornadoes have definitely been linked to climate change.

The IPCC says there are no linakges to hurricanes. Aw hell, let me go look up specifics

Here is what the IPCC says exactly:

> “[T]here is still no consensus on the relative magnitude of human and natural influences on past changes in Atlantic hurricane activity, and particularly on which factor has dominated the observed increase (Ting et al., 2015) and it remains uncertain whether past changes in Atlantic TC activity are outside the range of natural variability.”

The IPCC has concluded that since 1900 there is > “no trend in the frequency of USA landfall events.” This goes for all hurricanes and also for the strongest hurricanes, called major hurricanes.

More broadly, > Continental U.S. landfalls are just a small proportion of all North Atlantic hurricanes, which in turn are just a small proportion of all global tropical cyclone activity. Since at least 1980, there are no clear trends in overall global hurricane and major hurricane activity.

And then there's this (emphasis mine): > here are many characteristics of tropical cyclones that are under study and hypothesized to be potentially affected by human influences (including but not limited to greenhouse gas forcings). These include tropical cyclone rainfall intensity, speed of storm movement, latitude of storm formation, pace of intensification, length of seasonality and many more. You can easily find different studies and different scientists with contrasting views on the role of human influence on tropical cyclones, but at present, there is not a unified community consensus on these hypotheses, as summarized by the World Meteorological Organization in several recent expert assessments.

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frankoyvind t1_iu89mla wrote

Well, I beg to differ.

There has been multiple predictions of more "extreme" weather. More rain AND less rain. More wind AND less wind. These predictions are less than useless. And now with the upcoming cop 27 in Egypt, media will be filled with doom and gloom the upcoming weeks.

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Danielnrg OP t1_iu8besu wrote

I mean predictions may be becoming less, well, predictable, but that is a consequence of the climate being less predictable because it's changing. Hence the "change" in "climate change".

That's as far as I know anyways, I won't pretend to know anything about any of this. It's all for scientists to figure out, and most scientists have said the climate change is happening and we can stop it by buying the Elon Musk cars and the Green New Deal. So I guess I'll be buying the Elon Musk cars and voting for the Green New Deal.

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PreOpTransCentaur t1_iu8bf1u wrote

There IS more wind and less wind, there IS more rain and less rain, there ARE more fires and less fires, there ARE more hurricanes and less hurricanes, there ARE more tornadoes and less tornadoes, you're just too fucking myopic to consider anything outside the specific microcosm in which you live as valid evidence.

You might as well have said "Dur hur it snowed this year, where's the global warming??" instead of risking a potential migraine from "over" "thinking" it like you did. You don't actually get to beg to differ, because you don't know what you're talking about.

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frankoyvind t1_iu99pt1 wrote

What is the predictive value of a hypothesis that predicts more AND less? It. Is. Useless. Or the old communism in the color green... But I repeat myself

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scurvydog-uldum t1_iu9mfb8 wrote

The IPCC begs to differ...

I feel like you're talking about the climate alarmism social movement, not the scientific theory of climate change.

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Danielnrg OP t1_iu8buqr wrote

This seems really confusing to me personally, I just trust the scientists to get us through this. My electricity company charges double from 4pm to 9pm, and I'm hoping stopping climate change will prevent that from happening. I could barely afford the energy bill as it was!

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pinzi_peisvogel t1_iu8b90g wrote

How is it so difficult to understand that climate and weather will simply change and is already doing so? You can have less rain and then one rain that is pouring down so much that it counts as more rain...like we had over here this year. This rain is totally useless for the soil. You can have less wind overall but then severe storms more frequent. The weather is going to be more volatile and different to the eco system than its used to, even though your personal momentarily feeling might be different.

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