This isn't really surprising.

This is the most basic predicted effect of climate change.

The higher latitudes increase temperature much more than the sub-tropical latitudes, so the air mixing east of the rockies will on average have a much smaller temperature differential.

smaller temperature difference means fewer and weaker tornadoes.

Forgive me for seeming obtuse, but I was under the impression that weather extremes would increase due to climate change. I've seen several people on the news ask if the recent hurricane in Florida was linked to climate change, and NWS experts say it wasn't. I'm getting mixed messages. You're saying that the planet will slowly die... but we'll get less tornadoes as a result?

Well, I beg to differ.

There has been multiple predictions of more "extreme" weather. More rain AND less rain. More wind AND less wind. These predictions are less than useless. And now with the upcoming cop 27 in Egypt, media will be filled with doom and gloom the upcoming weeks.

Yeah, Brock Lesnar just kind of shows up whenever he feels like it nowadays

Honestly feels like bait. Anyways simple terms tornadoes are caused by the differences in air temps, if All the air is hot (it’s all hot because the ozone layer has been destroyed(this is where the climate change part comes in for your obtuseness.))there is no difference to cause the disruption that is the tornado 🌪

Look at the question a little bit different.

The US has more tornados than any other country, 1100-1200 per year. Canada is #2 with about 100 a year. Then conditions for our massive tornado count are a unique balance of weather patterns. As climate changes that balance could weaken/ break.

And while it would mean that this specific weather event becomes less common, others will become more prevalent. And the big hit is areas not used to certain events could get more. Texas has a hard time with blizzards, Maine has never seen a heatwave in the 110s.

I don't know what bait you're talking about, but your answer combined with the answer below seems to explain it pretty well

How is it so difficult to understand that climate and weather will simply change and is already doing so? You can have less rain and then one rain that is pouring down so much that it counts as more rain...like we had over here this year. This rain is totally useless for the soil. You can have less wind overall but then severe storms more frequent. The weather is going to be more volatile and different to the eco system than its used to, even though your personal momentarily feeling might be different.

I mean predictions may be becoming less, well, predictable, but that is a consequence of the climate being less predictable because it's changing. Hence the "change" in "climate change".

That's as far as I know anyways, I won't pretend to know anything about any of this. It's all for scientists to figure out, and most scientists have said the climate change is happening and we can stop it by buying the Elon Musk cars and the Green New Deal. So I guess I'll be buying the Elon Musk cars and voting for the Green New Deal.

There IS more wind and less wind, there IS more rain and less rain, there ARE more fires and less fires, there ARE more hurricanes and less hurricanes, there ARE more tornadoes and less tornadoes, you're just too fucking myopic to consider anything outside the specific microcosm in which you live as valid evidence.

You might as well have said "Dur hur it snowed this year, where's the global warming??" instead of risking a potential migraine from "over" "thinking" it like you did. You don't actually get to beg to differ, because you don't know what you're talking about.

Great, now we jinxed

Is this at all taking into consideration that the EF scale is only 15 years old, or..?

This seems really confusing to me personally, I just trust the scientists to get us through this. My electricity company charges double from 4pm to 9pm, and I'm hoping stopping climate change will prevent that from happening. I could barely afford the energy bill as it was!

There was no context for that but it made me spit out my drink so I'll allow it

I planned it all, and you fools walked right into my trap. The EF5 tornadoes are on their way, right now. You can't escape.

I had a longer post, using the same sources and methodology, that got rejected by some other subreddits multiple times. It was originally geared towards having a discussion about why it's been so long. I retooled it into a "factoid" with the same intention of asking why it's been so long without an EF5, for this sub. Short answer, yes I did take this into account. Under the Fujita scale, the longest gap between F5 tornadoes (since the 1950s) was 5 years, until the previous record of 8 years (May 3, 1999 - May 4, 2007). Under the new Enhanced Fujita Scale, it is now 9 years, 5 months and some-odd days, and counting since an EF5 tornado has hit the US.

Knock on wooooooaaaahhhhhhhh!

I take that back, the answer below is now a climate denier. I have now learned that saying things like "the answer below" is inadvisable on Reddit.

Bro why am I the nearly the only person I can see likes and dislikes of comments here.

I need to know if people enjoyed your ridiculous non sequitur as much as I did

And just like that he was sucked out of his house by an EF6. Child's play for the EF8 and EF13 that would hit right after.

This is like the cynical politician bringing a snowball to a meeting about global warming lol and why "global warming" fell out of favor even though it's true on average

Its a matter of WHERE.....Some places will get warmer, some will get wetter, some will get drier, Climate Change is far more accurate

As other people have said Tornadoes are caused by differences in temperature, we have some crazy conditions in the US for Tornadoes, we have hot air and cold air slamming into each other across the country and that causes a lot of Tornadoes, as that air temperature evens out there is less chaos to cause those vortices to form

We say there is going to be (and we see already) an increase in "severe weather events" but that doesn't necessarily mean "More Tornadoes" in America but it will mean more massive flooding, more wild thunderstorms, bigger Hurricanes, longer droughts, snowstorms in places that never got them and no snow in places where it always snows and it might very well mean that somewhere else might get more Tornadoes as things shift around....things may calm down in some places and ramp up in others, but its going to change everywhere

It's not quite a non-sequitur. Brock Lesnar as a pro wrestler used a move called the F-5 as a finisher. It consisted of hoisting the opponent up into a fireman's carry, then lifting him off and spinning him into a face-first drop.

so when a comment is new, they hide the likes/dislikes on it. I think it's so the hive mind won't downvote a comment to death after like 1 or 2 downvotes

Silverware clanking, "it's the finger of god".

Everyone in Barneveld Wisconsin remembers the day the tornado hit, and most in Southern Wisconsin can too. Tornados hitting a place is rare, but terrible.

So what you are saying is that not all the effects of climate change are bad? I'm not pro fucking the planet just observing that some changes to our climate could in theory be good.

Here in Indiana, I remember taking refuge in the basement much more as a kid in the 90’s than I do now. It seems like the tornadoes moved south for the most part.

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Building up for that F7.

Tempting fate with this post, aren't we?

So by WE you mean United States? Ok

Edit: have you all downvoting bother to read the article? Its USA specific all the way, and you just think its normal to use we without actually saying who is we in this title gore, and downvote me for pointing out your egocentrism Hahah great example of "merica", loved it

You are on an American website, using an American App/Browser, on a device running an American OS. Why is it surprising that WE refers to the US?

In the last 5 years, I can only remember a single tornado touching down in my county

The Fujita scales have always been about recorded damage due to a tornado. The only change between the F scale and the EF scale was windspeeds. The original scale over estimated speeds, and the new EF scale accurately depicts better data that was collected to adjust the speeds. An F5 and EF5 still produce catastrophic damage, same as how an F1 and EF1 will produce minimal damage.

Indiana is not in tornado alley - only southern Indiana is "sometimes" referred to as in Tornado alley.

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Climate Change or calm before the storm?

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> The US has more tornados than any other country, 1100-1200 per year.

Interestingly, the UK has more tornados than the US according to QI, but they are just much weaker.

As I rarely trust the fact checking on QI, as they almost always are wrong on facts about my area of expertise, I cannot imagine it to be true that GB has more tornados than the US, but they said on QI that there were more tornados in GB annually than the US.

When was your country's last EF5? Or any other country?

It may say that the UK has more when normalized for land area, but that is a silly stat. The US is far far larger than the UK. The US has far more overall tornadoes.

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Bruh we talking bout Nados America is the king of Nados

you’re* observation is misled and the most devastating tornado of all time took place in 3 states including Indiana

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🤦🏽‍♀️

That may have been it. I always have a cup of salt handy when watching the show.

I enjoy the show because in general I love panel shows, and there are lots of QI episodes to watch, but man the elves get so many things wrong, and Stephen even mocks people who know things. The specific examples that irked me was when Stephen Fry doubled down on his mistakes about German to a German speaker, and when he mocked Sean Locke for the interesting fact that banana plants are mobile (referred to as walking), which at least he was corrected on during the same show.

Are they carrying sharks?

It's ok, we can nuke 'em

I freaking loved it cause I love Brock Lesnar🤣🤣

Means the first EF6 is about to occur

r/shitamericanssay

Man I loved that movie as a kid. Made me want to be a Stormechaser when I grew up haha.

Global warming!

Here’s even more of a head fuck: we have very convincing evidence that the Clean Air Act is leading to more storm development in the Atlantic. Less air pollution has resulted in sea surface temperatures rising now that there isn’t a blanket of air pollution to keep the temperature down. There is also an impact on the jet stream, reducing wind shear and therefore assisting storm development.

Now obviously the Clean Air Act is extremely important and objectively good. But it’s another example of how we need to talk seriously about weather resilience and avoiding, for example, rebuilding extremely vulnerable coastal communities after a storm like Ian.

Technically, while temperature difference can be a factor in the cause of a tornado - that’s like saying dry wood is a cause for a forest fire.

The temperature difference is the cause for the storms (along with moisture, and instability), that can potentially cause a tornado, but you’re not going to have a tornado without a strong wind shear.

Everything exists on a spectrum. Anyone who tries to define things in black and white is usually so vastly oversimplifying that it's no longer relevant anymore.

Did you scare them all away with a shotgun while waving an American flag and shouting “‘MURICA!”?

In less populated areas tornadoes can go unnoticed especially if there are no trained weather spotters. Sometimes concealed by rain or night they probably miss a lot of them.

Make the midwest safer and flood the coastal cities? What's the downside of climate change, again?

The real truth is that we don’t know what will happen with climate change. A decade ago who would have predicted Portland would get hotter than Las Vegas has ever been.

The system is chaotic and unknowable.

Nah just propane tanks will work.

Well, it's still bad. Tornadoes don't kill that many people but climate change will.

Yea except there's pretty much nothing that 21st century engineering can do to make a city safe from a direct hit by an ef5. Also, we don't just measure climate change devastation based on death toll but also damage to our infastructure.

Yeah and so climate change will do way more damage than a small reduction in tornadoes will compensate for.

What is the predictive value of a hypothesis that predicts more AND less? It. Is. Useless. Or the old communism in the color green... But I repeat myself

>but you’re not going to have a tornado without a strong wind shear.

Fully get what you are saying, this is just a more accurate "in the weeds" extrapolation of what I'm saying because that serious wind sheer is caused by big temperature differences

Same here back then in IL. It was once or twice a year. From like 2014-2019 we almost had none.

I moved down south and suddenly have had one about once a year, really nasty high wind storms.

That was my thought as well. Mother Nature just edging so she can wipe us all away.

Well, Fujita thought that the Xenia, Ohio tornado during the 1974 outbreak should be categorized as F-6.

But we are in an extended La Nina. That may have something to do with it.

>Forgive me for seeming obtuse, but I was under the impression that weather extremes would increase due to climate change.

The myth that temperatures swings are more extreme on both sides only serves a very specific fallacy. Most of the world is getting warmer most of the year.

That’s no finger

And propane accessories.

Yep. We and we don’t expect your small brain to grasp the context either so all good.

Climate change, am I right?

The IPCC begs to differ...

I feel like you're talking about the climate alarmism social movement, not the scientific theory of climate change.

Welp….ya just fucking jinxed us!

Nobody is saying the planet will die. The planet will do just fine; our coastal cities might be underwater, but the planet won't care about that.

The IPCC says the only weather extremes linked to climate change are increased high temperature records outside the tropics and subtropics, and more heat waves.

The IPCC specifically excludes things like increased rain, increased drought, stronger winter storms, stronger summer storms, etc. So any time you hear some activist claiming weather is caused by climate change, know that the mainstream scientists have said it's not true.

The oddest prediction was decreased land-falling hurricanes in the US, but right after that prediction was published we had the longest period in history of no major hurricanes hitting the US.

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So climate change means less tornadoes on top of fewer deaths from cold temperatures?

You are observation is misled?

I agree with you but thats pretty funny

Most people don't remember Barneveld.

Dang I did a double doof

I think part of this may just be better alerting. When I was a kid, they'd just give an entire county a Tornado Warning and you'd have to listen to the radio to have vague "yeah it was spotted 10 miles west of the interstate". Now, the warning is specific to a particular storm path, and doppler radars are to the point where you can track rotation in real-time. I'm not taking shelter unless the thing is within walking distance anymore.

So school shootings means less competition for good paying jobs and on top of that more space in the swimming pool?

Not all storms are built the same. Tornadoes need warm air and wind shear. The latter is expected to decrease with climate change resulting in weaker tornadoes. Tornado season will get longer but there’ll be fewer strong ones.

As a dallas residence born in 99 the occasional touchdown happens but every year it seems like our bad thunderstorms spiral into touch downs in Alabama. Just to add to what you said.

Hooray climate change!

#winning

Great. Now you jinxed it.

It's like we live on different planets. The truth I know is the opposite of what you wrote.

Fewer and weaker tornadoes have definitely been linked to climate change.

The IPCC says there are no linakges to hurricanes. Aw hell, let me go look up specifics

Here is what the IPCC says exactly:

> “[T]here is still no consensus on the relative magnitude of human and natural influences on past changes in Atlantic hurricane activity, and particularly on which factor has dominated the observed increase (Ting et al., 2015) and it remains uncertain whether past changes in Atlantic TC activity are outside the range of natural variability.”

The IPCC has concluded that since 1900 there is > “no trend in the frequency of USA landfall events.” This goes for all hurricanes and also for the strongest hurricanes, called major hurricanes.

More broadly, > Continental U.S. landfalls are just a small proportion of all North Atlantic hurricanes, which in turn are just a small proportion of all global tropical cyclone activity. Since at least 1980, there are no clear trends in overall global hurricane and major hurricane activity.

And then there's this (emphasis mine): > here are many characteristics of tropical cyclones that are under study and hypothesized to be potentially affected by human influences (including but not limited to greenhouse gas forcings). These include tropical cyclone rainfall intensity, speed of storm movement, latitude of storm formation, pace of intensification, length of seasonality and many more. You can easily find different studies and different scientists with contrasting views on the role of human influence on tropical cyclones, but at present, there is not a unified community consensus on these hypotheses, as summarized by the World Meteorological Organization in several recent expert assessments.

Perfect time for a new Twister movie.

Well you jinxed us now, jerk

Sure, you might be right about the warnings, but they don’t affect the strength of the storm. That’s what this interesting fact is talking about. Not the death and destruction, but the actual strength of tornadoes being irregularly low in recent years.

Maybe, what of it?

With fricking lasers on their fricking heads?

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I highly recommend taking a moment to read this article which gives a, very brief, summary of what meteorologists and climatologists think of the situation as far as clime change is concerned;

https://ideas.ted.com/is-change-making-storms-and-tornadoes-worse/

And if you get a chance and willing to read scientific papers I would say to try and read Dr. John Allen’s work on the subject in particular. I had the honor of having him as my thermodynamics and mesoscale professor as well as working closely with his research group before. It’s a subject that scientists are giving some focus as well as how we communicate these potential changes to the public.

no, the comment they replied to was talking about frequency of tornado warnings in Indiana.

Now why in the hell would you remind them?

I forgive you

Then you did a very good job

If this worked we wouldn’t have had tornadoes since the 1700s.

We just need more people to do it at once

Tornadoes arent the most dangerous thing

And east. We aren't getting big ones, but CT is seeing more tornadoes. We had a biggish one back in the 90s I think and I don't really remember any others. There was a sheer that hit a couple towns over in like 2008ish and that was big news. 2015 we got stomped by three, one went right by my house.

Likely more of a product of lack of EF5 caliber tornadoes hitting something that would qualify as an EF5 rating. Remember, the rating scale is based on DAMAGE not wind speed. Therefore, if it doesn’t hit an extremely well built structure the maximum rating it can be given is EF4.

El Reno, OK 2013 had measured wind speeds using radar over 300 mph but failed to hit anything to give it an EF5 rating.

Basically, it’s very difficult to say whether the gap we are seeing is simply bad (good?) luck or part of some overall trend.

There was only 3EF5s . The first one was in Greensburg Kansas n two in More Ok.

Hurricane and tornado formation occur on completely unrelated time and size scales along with the processes that go into them.

High latitude countries may see some positive benefits as a result of climate change, particularly in their agricultural sectors. As winters begin soften, their growing seasons will lengthen and land will become sustainable for farming. Its for that reason that Russia, for example, has been largely quiet on the subject of climate change.

That said, it's not expected that those benefits will outweigh the wider economic problems climate change is likely to present.

Climate change.

Does it?

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We are also in the longest gap between Sharknadoes in US history.

Thanks for saying that you jinx.

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There’s also been a lack of FU’s/attitude adjustments the last 5 years or so.

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Original

We all do it at my local trailer park

Rare climate change W

I never thought I’d say this, but I guess we need more trailer parks full of men shooting guns into the air. It’s science.

Best I can do it ill-tempered, mutated sea bass

I feel like we have had more tornado warnings here in NJ in the last ~8 years than we had in the previous 36 years of my life.

The tornadoes are plotting something...

I lived in Joplin MO for one year of my life.....the year an F5 decided to destroy the town with our neighbourhood at its epicenter. I barely escaped death, literary by inches. I don't wish an F5 on anyone.

ACTUALLY, if you look at the data, it clearly shows that CO2 emissions is causing us to have global warming, which leads to more unstable atmosphere, which leads to MORE EF5 tornadoes, not fewer. So these people at Fox need to consider that they need to "correct" their data so that it comes into alignment with the computer models.

The "corrected" data clearly show that we are having 1.6 EF5 tornadoes per day. This is a dramatic INCREASE in EF5 tornadoes.

We will all die due to habitat destruction long before climate issues.

Oh they're still there and happening....you just can't see them

Shhhhhh.....

Don't tell anyone, but last year was also the coolest year in 7 years

Shhhh......

As someone who lives in tornado alley, OP just fkd us

Brock Lesnar is still in the WWE.

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Most people don't know about the one that hit Lubbock, TX in 1980 that tore the city to pieces. There's still buildings still standing today that bear the scars. It was one of the tornadoes considered for developing the EF5 standard. A tornado of that size hasn't hit the area since.

Yes, but he's gone back and forth to UFC.

He actually does both at the same time now. Has for a few years.

traumatized animal crossing player noises

The ozone layer hasn't been destroyed . It was damaged by CFCs in the 1970s and is recovering well since they were banned in the 1980s.

Well finally some good news about global warming

Some people believe the Bassfield/Soso, MI tornado from 2020 (EF4) should have been classified EF5, but alas it wasn't.

Well, not literally at the same time. He doesn't wrestle one guy while fighting a mixed martial arts match against another.

Correct."Tornado Valley" is a thing, and it's been steadily shifting to the east for many years.

In Illinois the entire county gets alerted. All the sirens go off.

Still warmer than the temperatures in earlier decades

We can only pray and hope that one wipes out menlo CA or Austin Tx.

That’s a bad sign for Oklahoma.

We have to do something about climate change!

90’s IL represent! I grew up in Central IL back then, too. We had a tornado or two every year, it seemed. I also lived in Springfield when the tornadoes hit in 2006. Anyway, I moved away, but I never really hear about them anymore. And pretty much none here in Ohio.

Shhhhhhhhh

T thank you very much Climate Change! Not all effects from “climate change” are bad things despite what all the media, Al Gore and the rest of the sky-is-falling crowd will say.

Meteorologist Dr. Reed Timmer, who claims to have had a role in the films research, says it's in the works now. So maybe we'll get a trailer by next year?

El Nino was real in the 90s! It was very very stormy late 90s. Also as others have said, much better alerting.

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dude right before 'random 85 degree stormy day during winter' season too!

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Climate change still crushing it. Soon even hurricanes will be a thing of the past.

Way to jinx it

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I’m in the south and feel the same way, oddly. I can’t remember the last time I heard a tornado siren. I think it was 2020. It used to be a multiple-times-each-spring occurrence.

This is a good point I haven’t thought about. Will it come back someday? I was a kid so I guess I don’t know much about El Niño.

Edit: nevermind I forgot I can Google. They happen a lot. Apparently there was a big one in 2014-2015. Interesting.

Exactly, there've been probably a dozen or more tornadoes over the last decade that have clearly produced wind speeds that are in excess of EF5-strength ratings but they never hit anything. El Reno being the biggest case in point on that.

Temperature difference has little effect - it's wind shear. Wind shear (particularly in the hot months) has really declined.

caught me a bit drunk. we talking tornadoes or hurricanes?

Wind shear is needed for tornadoes. That's why peak tornado season is in spring, not the summer.

Another factor is that some areas get so hot and humid these days, when there is ample wind shear storms grow upscale too quickly because of the abundance of energy. Large tornadoes particularly will not happen after storms merge into a line.

> literary by inches

Blow, winds, and crack your cheeks!

Aaaaannnnnddd you just jinxed it

There has been some study on this. For whatever reason, "Tornado Alley" seems to be moving south and east over time.