Submitted by Equal_Caregiver_4909 t3_10prv76 in todayilearned
While there’s a certain element of truth to it, as in you miss every shot you don’t take. In my experience fortune favors the lucky.
There's a secret to hiring someone who's lucky. Take half the resumes you get and throw them in the trash, cause you don't want to hire anyone so unlucky. The remaining half are the lucky ones, but if you want to hire someone REALLY lucky, you pull one out of the trash and hire them.
That must be how I got hired for my first after college job. My interview was terrible.
Just have to be better than the other candidates.
Or you know, it wasn't as bad as you thought
But if it’s a really shit job, then that person is actually really unlucky.
couldn't you just pick someone from the stack at random and then throw the rest out
That person would be lucky, but not very lucky. It's the whole "snatching victory from the jaws of defeat" angle that makes it.
but you're doing the same thing either way. unless their resume manages to catch your eye from the trash unexpectedly, maybe that's what you meant idk
The chance of picking one paper out of a stack is 1 / n (n is the number of papers).
The chance a piece of paper goes in the trash is 1/(.5n). The chance that piece is then picked out of the trash is then 1/(.5n) again. Multiply those and you get 1/(.25n^2).
So we can compare them to see if those are actually the same quantity.
1 / n < 1/(.25n^2)
n < .25n^2
4n < n^2
4 < n or n > 4
So if your stack has 4 or more pieces of paper in it, getting the paper out of the garbage is less likely (i.e. luckier) than just picking the paper out of the whole stack.
So let's say...10 papers.
Chance of any one to be picked blindly: 1/10.
Chance any one is discarded into the trash: 5/10 (not 1/5 as you said, it should be .5n/n, or just 50%).
Chance for any one paper being picked out of the trash: 1/5 (since there are 5 in the trash).
1/5 of 5/10 is 1/10. Which is the chance we started with by just picking at random.
So no. Getting the paper out of the garbage isn't less likely at all in your example. The only factor not included here is the likeliness that one is picked from the trash at all. Since, if this were an uncommon event, it would make chances lower. But since this experiment presumes doing so is already predetermined (since you've built this selection method purposely), it adds no rarity or value.
In fact, since you premeditated this, arguably the stack in the trash is less lucky since you already decided at the start you'd pick one of those.
A when A. In addition it is also apparent that being lucky causes boldness on its own and vice versa: a person who often succeeds is eager to try, someone who fails more than their share is going to be hesitant with even little risk.
A lifetime of things outside of my control going against me has certainly help mold me into an exceptionally cautious, risk averse person. No doubt.
Same, also anxiety filled.
I've dealt with anxiety and depression since I was a little kid also. I'm sure it all gets mixed together in the recipe to produce who I am.
Luck is when preparation meets opportunity!
That’s like saying fortune favours the fortunate
Because that's exactly what I'm saying.
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Eating 4 leaf clovers, shaving dice, adjusting your SPECIAL stats
In my experience, fortunes favor the connected
It’s almost like fortune favors the fortunate.
And luck favors the prepared.
My personal flair on whatsapp for a long time has been 'fortunatos fortuna iuvat' - 'fortune favours the fortunate'.
It's just the way the world works. If you're born privileged you get more privileged. The lucky becomes luckier.
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